66 resultados para model selection in binary regression
Resumo:
Sugar uptake and metabolism were studied in callus cultures and shoot tips of asparagus. Asparagus callus cultures were used to model senescence in shoot tips. Callus cultures absorbed glucose from a nutrient medium, and accumulated sucrose, glucose and fructose. This uptake of glucose by the callus cultures down-regulated expression of asparagine synthetase and beta -galactosidase transcripts that otherwise accumulated when sugar was withheld. When 80 mm-long asparagus shoots were excised from growing plants and placed in 2% and 8% sucrose solutions, endogenous concentrations of sucrose, glucose, fructose, UDPglucose, and glucose-6-phosphate declined in the 30mm-long meristematic tip regions. At the same time, asparagine and asparagine synthetase gene transcripts began to accumulate in these tips. When 10 mm-long asparagus shoot tips were placed on glucose- or fructose-containing agar, the tips accumulated sucrose, glucose and fructose, and asparagine accumulation and expression of asparagine synthetase were marginally reduced. We concluded that in callus cultures, asparagine synthetase expression was sugar regulated, but that sugar regulation was not as pronounced in asparagus shoot tips. This may be due in part to slower rates of sugar uptake into shoot tips and in part to compartmentation of sugars in the tips. We suggest that callus cultures are not a suitable model for metabolic studies in asparagus shoot tips.
Resumo:
The bridled nailtail wallaby is restricted to one locality in central Queensland, Australia. The population declined severely during a major drought between 1991 and 1995. We investigated age-specific covariates of survival and proximate causes of mortality from 1994 to 1997, using mark-recapture and radio-tagging techniques at two study sites. Using a matrix population model, we also modelled the effect of drought on age-specific survival and the intrinsic rate of population increase,;,. The only significant covariate of survival for adults was a measure of health unrelated to drought. Rainfall, food, predator activity, year, sex and habitat were not associated with variation in adult survival. Juvenile survival was negatively affected by drought, and predation was the proximate cause of most juvenile deaths. The matrix projection model showed that the observed juvenile survivorship during the drought was low enough to have produced a population decline, although fecundity and survival of other age classes was high throughout the study. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The sexual ornamentation used by male guppies to attract females comprises many components, each of which varies considerably among males. Although natural and sexual selection have been shown to contribute to divergence among populations in male sexual ornaments, the role of sexual selection in maintaining polymorphism within populations is less clear. We used both parametric quadratic regression and nonparametric projection pursuit regression techniques to reveal the major axes of non-linear sexual selection on male ornaments. We visualized the fitness surfaces defined by these axes using thin-plate splines to allow a direct comparison of the two methodologies. Identification of the major axes of selection and their visualization was critical in determining the form and strength of nonlinear selection. Both types of analysis revealed fitness surfaces comprising three peaks, suggesting that there is more than one way to make an attractive guppy. Disruptive selection may be an important process underlying the presence of multiple sexual ornaments and may contribute to the maintenance of the high levels of polymorphism in male sexual ornaments found in guppy populations.
Resumo:
Identifying inequities in access to health care requires critical scrutiny of the patterns and processes of care decisions. This paper describes a conceptual model. derived from social problems theory. which is proposed as a useful framework for explaining patterns of post-acute care referral and in particular, individual variations in referral to rehabilitation after traumatic brain injury (TBI). The model is based on three main components: (1) characteristics of the individual with TBI, (2) activities of health care professionals and the processes of referral. and (3) the contexts of care. The central argument is that access to rehabilitation following TBI is a dynamic phenomenon concerning the interpretations and negotiations of health care professionals. which in turn are shaped by the organisational and broader health care contexts. The model developed in this paper provides opportunity to develop a complex analysis of post-acute care referral based on patient factors, contextual factors and decision-making processes. It is anticipated that this framework will have utility in other areas examining and understanding patterns of access to health care. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.
Resumo:
When studying genotype X environment interaction in multi-environment trials, plant breeders and geneticists often consider one of the effects, environments or genotypes, to be fixed and the other to be random. However, there are two main formulations for variance component estimation for the mixed model situation, referred to as the unconstrained-parameters (UP) and constrained-parameters (CP) formulations. These formulations give different estimates of genetic correlation and heritability as well as different tests of significance for the random effects factor. The definition of main effects and interactions and the consequences of such definitions should be clearly understood, and the selected formulation should be consistent for both fixed and random effects. A discussion of the practical outcomes of using the two formulations in the analysis of balanced data from multi-environment trials is presented. It is recommended that the CP formulation be used because of the meaning of its parameters and the corresponding variance components. When managed (fixed) environments are considered, users will have more confidence in prediction for them but will not be overconfident in prediction in the target (random) environments. Genetic gain (predicted response to selection in the target environments from the managed environments) is independent of formulation.
Resumo:
The adsorption of p-nitrophenol in one untreated activated carbon (F100) and three treated activated carbons (H-2, H2SO4 and Urea treated F100) was carried out at undissociated and dissociated conditions. To characterize the carbon, N-2 and CO2 adsorption were used. X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) was used to analyze the surface of the activated carbon. The experimental isotherms are fitted via the Langmuir homogenous model and Langmuir binary model. Variation of the model parameters with the solution pH is studied. Both Q(max) and the adsorption affinity coefficient (K-1) were dependent on the PZC of the carbons and solution pH. The Effect of pH must be considered due to its combined effects on the carbon surface and on the solute molecules. Adsorption of p-nitrophenol at higher pH was found to be dependent on the concentration of the anionic form of the solute.
Resumo:
In the last few decades, private health insurance rates have declined in many countries. In countries and states with community rating, a major cause is adverse selection. In order to address age-based adverse selection, Australia has recently begun a novel approach which imposes stiff penalties for buying private insurance later in life, when expected costs are higher. In this paper, we analyze Australiarsquos Lifetime Cover in the context of a modified version of the Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance model (Rothschild and Stiglitz, 1976). We allow empirically-based probabilities to increase by age for low-risk types. The model highlights the shortcomings of the Australian plan. Based on empirically-based probabilities of illness, we predict that Lifetime Cover will not arrest adverse selection. The model has many policy implications for government regulation encouraging long-term health coverage.
Resumo:
Sugars affect the gelatinization of starch, with the effect varying significantly between sugars. Since many food products contain a mixture of sugar sources, it is important to understand how their mixtures affect starch gelatinization. In a Rapid Visco Analyser study of maize starch gelatinization, changing proportions in binary mixtures of refined sugars saw a largely proportionate change in starch gelatinization properties. However, binary mixture of pure sugars and honey, or a model honey system (the main sugars in honey) and honey responded differently. Generally, replacing 25% or 50% of the refined sugar or model honey system with honey gave a large change in starch gelatinization properties, while further increases in honey level had little further effect. Differences between honey and buffered model honey system (either gluconic acid, or a mixture of citric acid and di-sodium phosphate) showed the sensitivity of starch gelatinization to the composition of the nonsaccharide component. (c) 2004 Swiss Society of Food Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A simulation model of cereal-legume intercropping systems for semi-arid regions I. Model development
Resumo:
Cereal-legume intercropping plays an important role in subsistence food production in developing countries, especially in situations of limited water resources. Crop simulation can be used to assess risk for intercrop productivity over time and space. In this study, a simple model for intercropping was developed for cereal and legume growth and yield, under semi-arid conditions. The model is based on radiation interception and use, and incorporates a water stress factor. Total dry matter and yield are functions of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), the fraction of radiation intercepted and radiation use efficiency (RUE). One of two PAR sub-models was used to estimate PAR from solar radiation; either PAR is 50% of solar radiation or the ratio of PAR to solar radiation (PAR/SR) is a function of the clearness index (K-T). The fraction of radiation intercepted was calculated either based on Beer's Law with crop extinction coefficients (K) from field experiments or from previous reports. RUE was calculated as a function of available soil water to a depth of 900 mm (ASW). Either the soil water balance method or the decay curve approach was used to determine ASW. Thus, two alternatives for each of three factors, i.e., PAR/SR, K and ASW, were considered, giving eight possible models (2 methods x 3 factors). The model calibration and validation were carried out with maize-bean intercropping systems using data collected in a semi-arid region (Bloemfontein, Free State, South Africa) during seven growing seasons (1996/1997-2002/2003). The combination of PAR estimated from the clearness index, a crop extinction coefficient from the field experiment and the decay curve model gave the most reasonable and acceptable result. The intercrop model developed in this study is simple, so this modelling approach can be employed to develop other cereal-legume intercrop models for semi-arid regions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Sexual selection involves two main mechanisms: intrasexual competition for mates and intersexual mate choice. We experimentally separated intrasexual (male-male interference competition) and intersexual (female choice) components of sexual selection in a freshwater fish, the European bitterling (Rhodeus sericeus). We compared the roles of multiple morphological and behavioural traits in male success in both components of sexual competition, and their relation to male reproductive success, measured as paternity of offspring. Body size was important for both female choice and male-male competition, though females also preferred males that courted more vigorously. However, dominant males often monopolized females regardless of female preference. Subordinate males were not excluded from reproduction and sired some offspring, possibly through sneaked ejaculations. Male dominance and a greater intensity of carotenoid-based red colouration in their iris were the best predictors of male reproductive success. The extent of red iris colouration and parasite load did not have significant effects on female choice, male dominance or male reproductive success. No effect of parasite load on the expression of red eye colouration was detected, though this may have been due to low parasite prevalence in males overall. In conclusion, we showed that even though larger body size was favoured in both intersexual and intrasexual selection, male-male interference competition reduced opportunities for female choice. Females, despite being choosy, had limited control over the paternity of their offspring. Our study highlights the need for reliable measures of male reproductive success in studies of sexual selection.
Resumo:
Many long-lived marine species exhibit life history traits. that make them more vulnerable to overexploitation. Accurate population trend analysis is essential for development and assessment of management plans for these species. However, because many of these species disperse over large geographic areas, have life stages inaccessible to human surveyors, and/or undergo complex developmental migrations, data on trends in abundance are often available for only one stage of the population, usually breeding adults. The green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is one of these long-lived species for which population trends are based almost exclusively on either numbers of females that emerge to nest or numbers of nests deposited each year on geographically restricted beaches. In this study, we generated estimates of annual abundance for juvenile green turtles at two foraging grounds in the Bahamas based on long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) studies at Union Creek (24 years) and Conception Creek (13 years), using a two-stage approach. First, we estimated recapture probabilities from CMR data using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in the software program MARK; second, we estimated annual abundance of green turtles. at both study sites using the recapture probabilities in a Horvitz-Thompson type estimation procedure. Green turtle abundance did not change significantly in Conception Creek, but, in Union Creek, green turtle abundance had successive phases of significant increase, significant decrease, and stability. These changes in abundance resulted from changes in immigration, not survival or emigration. The trends in abundance on the foraging grounds did not conform to the significantly increasing trend for the major nesting population at Tortuguero, Costa Rica. This disparity highlights the challenges of assessing population-wide trends of green turtles and other long-lived species. The best approach for monitoring population trends may be a combination of (1) extensive surveys to provide data for large-scale trends in relative population abundance, and (2) intensive surveys, using CMR techniques, to estimate absolute abundance and evaluate the demographic processes' driving the trends.
Resumo:
Evolutionary change results from selection acting on genetic variation. For migration to be successful, many different aspects of an animal's physiology and behaviour need to function in a co-coordinated way. Changes in one migratory trait are therefore likely to be accompanied by changes in other migratory and life-history traits. At present, we have some knowledge of the pressures that operate at the various stages of migration, but we know very little about the extent of genetic variation in various aspects of the migratory syndrome. As a consequence, our ability to predict which species is capable of what kind of evolutionary change, and at which rate, is limited. Here, we review how our evolutionary understanding of migration may benefit from taking a quantitative-genetic approach and present a framework for studying the causes of phenotypic variation. We review past research, that has mainly studied single migratory traits in captive birds, and discuss how this work could be extended to study genetic variation in the wild and to account for genetic correlations and correlated selection. In the future, reaction-norm approaches may become very important, as they allow the study of genetic and environmental effects on phenotypic expression within a single framework, as well as of their interactions. We advocate making more use of repeated measurements on single individuals to study the causes of among-individual variation in the wild, as they are easier to obtain than data on relatives and can provide valuable information for identifying and selecting traits. This approach will be particularly informative if it involves systematic testing of individuals under different environmental conditions. We propose extending this research agenda by using optimality models to predict levels of variation and covariation among traits and constraints. This may help us to select traits in which we might expect genetic variation, and to identify the most informative environmental axes. We also recommend an expansion of the passerine model, as this model does not apply to birds, like geese, where cultural transmission of spatio-temporal information is an important determinant of migration patterns and their variation.
Resumo:
Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
As an alternative to traditional evolutionary algorithms (EAs), population-based incremental learning (PBIL) maintains a probabilistic model of the best individual(s). Originally, PBIL was applied in binary search spaces. Recently, some work has been done to extend it to continuous spaces. In this paper, we review two such extensions of PBIL. An improved version of the PBIL based on Gaussian model is proposed that combines two main features: a new updating rule that takes into account all the individuals and their fitness values and a self-adaptive learning rate parameter. Furthermore, a new continuous PBIL employing a histogram probabilistic model is proposed. Some experiments results are presented that highlight the features of the new algorithms.