51 resultados para forecast deviation


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Myelin proteolipid protein (PLP) contains 2 immunodominant encephalitogenic epitopes in SJL mice, namely PLP residues 139-151 and 178-191. DM20, a minor isoform of PLP, lacks residues 116-150 and consequently contains only the single major encephalitogenic epitope 178-191. However, it has been found previously that bovine DM20 is not encephalitogenic in SJL mice. Since residue 188 within peptide 178-191 is phenylalanine (F) in murine DM20 and alanine (A) in bovine DM20, we tested the effect of this difference on the immune responses and induction of EAE. SJL mice were immunized with either highly purified murine or bovine DM20. Residues 178-191 were found to be immunodominant for each, but only murine and not bovine DM20 was encephalitogenic. A synthetic peptide corresponding to the murine 178-191 sequence (F188) was also encephalitogenic, whereas the peptide corresponding to the bovine sequence (A188) was not. Both F188 and A188 bind with high affinity to I-A(s) and both are recognized by the SJL T cell repertoire. A188-specific T cell lines reacted to both A188 and F188, but F188-specific T cell lines were not stimulated by A188. F188-specific T cell lines produced mRNA for the Th1 cytokines IL2 and IFN gamma and, in passive transfer experiments, were encephalitogenic upon stimulation with F188, but not A188. In contrast, A188-specific T cell lines produced mRNA for IL4, IL5 and IL10, in addition to IL2 and IFN gamma, and were not encephalitogenic after stimulation with either F188 or A188. Cotransfer of A188-specific T cell lines with F188-specific T cell lines resulted in protection from EAE. Thus, A188 induces a functionally different phenotype of T cells from that induced by F188. Taken together these data suggest that the failure of bovine DM20 to induce EAE may be attributable to induction of protective rather than pathogenic T cells by the immunodominant epitope.

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1. Chrysophtharta bimaculata is a native chrysomelid species that can cause chronic defoliation of plantation and regrowth Eucalyptus forests in Tasmania, Australia. Knowledge of the dispersion pattern of C. bimaculata was needed in order to assess the efficiency of an integrated pest management (IPM) programme currently used for its control. 2. Using data from yellow flight traps, local populations of C. bimaculata adults were monitored over a season at spatial scales relevant to commercial forestry: within a 50-ha operational management unit (a forestry 'coupe') and between coupes. In addition, oviposition was monitored over a season at a subset of the between-coupe sites. 3. Dispersion indices (Taylor's Power Law and Iwao's Mean Crowding regression method) demonstrated that C. bimaculata adults were spatially aggregated within and between coupes, although the number of egg-batches laid at the between-coupe scale was uniform. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that trap-catches at the within-coupe level were similar (positively autocorrelated) to a radius distance of approximately 110 m, and then dissimilar (negatively autocorrelated) at approximately 250 m. At the between-coupe scale, no repeatable spatial autocorrelation patterns were observed. 4. For any individual site, rapid changes in beetle density were observed to be associated with loosely aggregated flights of beetles into and out of that site. Peak adult catches (> the weekly mean plus standard deviation trap-catch) for a site occurred for a period of 2.0 +/- 0.22 weeks at a time (n = 37), with normally only one or two peaks per site per season. Peak oviposition events for a site occurred on average 1.4 +/- 0.11 times per season and lasted 1.5 +/- 0.12 weeks. 5. Analysis of an extensive data set (n = 417) demonstrated that adult abundance at a site was positively correlated with egg density, but negatively correlated with tree damage (caused by conspecifics) and the presence of conspecific larvae. There was no relationship between adult abundance and a visual estimate of the amount of young foliage on trees. 6. Adults of C. bimaculata are show n to occur in relatively small, mobile aggregations. This means that pest surveys must be both regular (less than 2 weeks apart) and intensive (with sampling points no more than 150 m apart) if beetle populations are to be monitored with confidence. Further refinement of the current IPM strategy must recognize the problems posed by this temporal and spatial patchiness, particularly with regard to the use of biological insecticides, such as Bacillus thuringiensis, for which only a very short operational window exists.

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Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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A new ball mill scale-up procedure is developed. This procedure has been validated using seven sets of Ml-scale ball mil data. The largest ball mills in these data have diameters (inside liners) of 6.58m. The procedure can predict the 80% passing size of the circuit product to within +/-6% of the measured value, with a precision of +/-11% (one standard deviation); the re-circulating load to within +/-33% of the mass-balanced value (this error margin is within the uncertainty associated with the determination of the re-circulating load); and the mill power to within +/-5% of the measured value. This procedure is applicable for the design of ball mills which are preceded by autogenous (AG) mills, semi-autogenous (SAG) mills, crushers and flotation circuits. The new procedure is more precise and more accurate than Bond's method for ball mill scale-up. This procedure contains no efficiency correction which relates to the mill diameter. This suggests that, within the range of mill diameter studied, milling efficiency does not vary with mill diameter. This is in contrast with Bond's equation-Bond claimed that milling efficiency increases with mill diameter. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Immune deviation of cytolytic T cell function, induced by type 2 cytokines like IL-4, is an attractive concept to explain failure of the immune system in some diseases. However, this concept is challenged by previous conflicting results on whether type 2 cytokine-producing CD8(+) T cells are cytolytic. Therefore, we have analyzed the relationship between cytolytic activity and cytokine production among large numbers of primary CD8(+) T cell clones. Single murine CD8(+) T cells of naive phenotype were activated at high efficiency with immobilized Abs to CD3, CD8, and CD11a in the presence of IL-2 (neutral conditions) or IL-2, IL-4, and anti-IFN-gamma Ab (type 2-polarizing conditions) for 8-9 days. Under neutral conditions, most clones produced IFN-gamma without IL-4 and were cytolytic. Under type 2-polarizing conditions, most clones produced IFN-gamma and IL-4 but displayed variable cytolytic activity and CD8 expression. Separation on the basis of surface CD8 levels revealed that, compared with CD8(high) cells from the same cultures, CD8(low) cells were poorly cytolytic and expressed low levels of perforin mRNA and protein and granzyme A, B, and C mRNA. A similar, smaller population of noncytolytic CD8(low) cells was identified among CD8(low) T cells activated in mixed lymphocyte reaction with IL-4. Variable efficiency of generation of the noncytolytic cells may account for the differing results of earlier studies. We conclude that IL-4 promotes the development of a noncytolytic CD8(low) T cell phenotype that might be important in tumor- or pathogen-induced immune deviation.

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The orientation relationships between hexagonal Mo2C precipitates (H) in ferrite (B) have been determined by electron diffraction to an accuracy of +/-2degrees. With one exception, the 19 results are consistent with the previously reported Pitsch and Schrader (P/S) orientation relationship. However, these more accurate determinations show clearly that there is a systematic deviation of up to 5.5degrees from the exact P/S relationship and that this deviation consists of a small rotation about the parallel close packed directions-[100](B)//[2 (1) over bar(1) over bar0](H). The long direction of the Mo2C needles has been determined unequivocally in terms of the orientation relationship to be [100](B)//[2 (1) over bar(1) over bar0](H). Moire fringes between precipitate and matrix have been used to improve the accuracy of the orientation relationship results and to determine the lattice parameters of the carbide precipitates investigated. The Moire fringe analysis has shown small systematic departures from the exact parallelism between [100](B) and [2 (1) over bar(1) over bar0](H) along the length of Mo2C needles and a lowering of the carbide lattice parameter that is consistent with the replacement of Mo by Fe in the carbide. The orientation relationship results, including the observed systematic deviation from the exact P/S relationship, are shown to be consistent with the edge-to-edge model. (C) 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

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A new type of dual-channel PAM chlorophyll fluorometer has been developed, which is specialised in the detection of extremely small differences in photosynthetic activity in algae or thylakoids suspensions. In conjunction with standardised algae cultures or isolated thylakoids, the new device provides an ultrasensitive biotest system for detection of toxic substances in water samples. In this report, major features of the new device are outlined and examples of its performance are presented using suspensions of Phaeodactylum tricornutum (diatoms) and of freeze-dried thylakoids of Lactuca sativa (salad). Investigated and reference samples are exposed to the same actinic intensity of pulse-modulated measuring light. The quantum yields are assessed by the saturation pulse method. Clock-triggered repetitive measurements of quantum yield typically display a standard deviation of 0.1%, corresponding to the inhibition induced by 0.02 mug diuron l(-1). Hence, for diuron or compounds with similar toxicity, the detection limit is well below the 0.1 mug l(-1) defined as the limit for the presence of a single toxic substance in water by the European Commission drinking water regulation. The amounts of water and biotest material required for analysis are very small, as a single assay involves two 1 ml samples, each containing ca. 0.5 mug chlorophyll. Both with Phaeodactylum and thylakoids the relationship between inhibition and diuron concentration is strictly linear up to 10% inhibition, with very similar slopes. Apparent inhibition depends on the actinic effect of the measuring light, showing optima at 6 and 4 mumol quanta m(-2) s(-1) with Phaeodactylum and thylakoids, respectively.

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Evoked otoacoustic emissions have demonstrated potential for application in the community-based hearing screening of paediatric populations. Distortion-product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs), as opposed to transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAEs), have not been extensively researched in this regard. The current study aimed to describe the range of DPOAE values obtained in a large cohort (1576 ears) of 6-year-old children in school settings and to examine possible ear asymmetry, gender and history of ear infection effects on the data. Results indicated a variety of significant effects, particularly in the high frequencies, for DPOAE signal-to-noise ratio. The measurement parameter, DPOAE amplitude (DP-amp), was found to display potentially less clinical applicability due to large standard deviation values. Use of descriptive normative data, as derived in the present investigation, may contribute toward future improvements in the hearing screening of 6-year-old schoolchildren

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Background and Purpose Previous research regarding the symmetry of trans-tibial amputees has examined weight distribution and various gait parameters between prosthetic and sound limbs. However, to date, no known research has determined if asymmetry is present in the strength of the hip abductor muscles or if correlations exist between these categories of symmetry. The purpose of the present study was, therefore, to document asymmetry present in stance, strength and gait measures, and to determine the relationship between these variables. Method Twenty-three elderly, unilateral trans-tibial amputees stood on two adjacent forceplates whilst the weight distribution and standard deviation (SD) of the anterior-posterior and the medio-lateral centre of pressure excursion (COPE) under each limb was recorded during four 40 s trials: quiet stance (QS), with eyes open and eyes closed; and even stance (ES), with eyes open and eyes closed. Gait measures (velocity, cadence, step and stride lengths, stance:swing ratio and period of double support) over 10 m of fast, yet safe walking and measures of the strength of hip abductor muscles were also obtained by use of a stride analyser and a dynamometer, respectively. Results No significant differences were found between QS and ES measures. However, significantly more weight was taken on the sound limb than on the amputated limb. Notably, more anterior-posterior movement occurred under the sound limb than the amputated limb, with this becoming more apparent with the eyes closed. Movement in the medio-lateral direction was found to be the same between sides. No differences in muscle strength or gait measures between limbs were demonstrated. However. strong hip abductor muscles were correlated with increased weight-bearing on the amputated limb, improved gait parameters and reduced medio-lateral COPE under the amputated limb. Conclusions This research confirms the asymmetrical nature of amputee stance and demonstrates symmetry of strength and gait measures between limbs. The correlations between hip abductor muscle strength, weight distribution and gait measures illustrates the importance of pre- and postoperative training of these muscles. Copyright © 2002 Whurr Publishers Ltd.

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The thin-layer drying behaviour of bananas in a beat pump dehumidifier dryer was examined. Four pre-treatments (blanching, chilling, freezing and combined blanching and freezing) were applied to the bananas, which were dried at 50 degreesC with an air velocity of 3.1 m s(-1) and with the relative humidity of the inlet air of 10-35%. Three drying models, the simple model, the two-term exponential model and the Page model were examined. All models were evaluated using three statistical measures, correlation coefficient, root means square error, and mean absolute percent error. Moisture diffusivity was calculated based on the diffusion equation for an infinite cylindrical shape using the slope method. The rate of drying was higher for the pre-treatments involving freezing. The sample which was blanched only did not show any improvement in drying rate. In fact, a longer drying time resulted due to water absorption during blanching. There was no change in the rate for the chilled sample compared with the control. While all models closely fitted the drying data, the simple model showed greatest deviation from the experimental results. The two-term exponential model was found to be the best model for describing the drying curves of bananas because its parameters represent better the physical characteristics of the drying process. Moisture diffusivities of bananas were in the range 4.3-13.2 x 10(-10) m(2)s(-1). (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

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The kinetics of single component adsorption on activated carbon is investigated here using a heterogeneous vacancy solution theory (VST) of adsorption. The adsorption isotherm is developed to account for the adsorbate non-ideality due to the size difference between the adsorbate molecule and the vacant site, while incorporating adsorbent heterogeneity through a pore-width-related potential energy. The transport process in the bidisperse carbon considers coupled mass transfer in both macropore and micropore phases simultaneously. Adsorbate diffusion in the micropore network is modeled through effective medium theory, thus considering pore network connectivity in the adsorbent, with the activation energy for adsorbate diffusion related to the adsorption energy, represented by the Steele 10-4-3 potential for carbons. Experimental data of five hydrocarbons, CO2 and SO2 on Ajax carbon at multiple temperatures, as well as three hydrocarbons on Norit carbon at three temperatures are first fitted by the heterogeneous VST model to obtain the isotherm parameters, followed by application of the kinetic model to uptake data on carbon particles of different sizes and geometry at various temperatures. For the hydrocarbons studied, the model can successfully correlate the experimental data for both adsorption equilibrium and kinetics. However, there is some deviation in the fit of the desorption kinetics for polar compounds such as CO2 and SO2, due to the inadequacy of the L-J potential model in this case. The significance of viscous transport in the micropores is also considered here and found to be negligible, consistent with recent molecular simulation studies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Design: Randomised controlled trial of psychological debriefing. Setting: A British teaching hospital (the Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford). Patients: 66 men and 40 women, aged 17–69 years, admitted to hospital after a motor vehicle accident. Most had been the driver of a car. Median admission duration was four days for the 52 control patients and eight days for the 54 who underwent the intervention. Interventions: A debriefing of about one hour on Day 2 of admission, encouraging patients to describe the accident and express their emotions, followed by a cognitive appraisal which included describing common reactions to traumatic experiences and suggesting a range of people who might be able to assist in the future, including the patient's general practitioner. 91 patients were assessed at four months and 61 were assessed at three years. Control patients had no debriefing or counselling. Main outcome measures: Impact of Event Scale (IES, which focuses on intrusive thoughts and avoidance of similar situations to the event); Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI, a measure of 53 symptoms); and other questions related to physical pain and functional activities. Main results: At four months there was still considerable psychological morbidity among the patients who were followed up. There was a significant difference (P < 0.05) in changes of IES between the 42 who received the intervention, in whom it increased from 15 (standard deviation [SD], 15) to 16 (SD, 15), and the 49 controls, in whom it fell from 15 (SD, 12) to 13 (SD, 14). Similarly, two subscales of the BSI score changed significantly between the intervention group, among whom it deteriorated from 0.5 (SD, 0.5) to 0.6 (SD, 0.8), and the control s, in whom it hardly changed from 0.4 (SD, 0.3) to 0.4 (SD, 0.4). Among the 61 patients followed for three years, the 30 randomised to receive the intervention were significantly worse, by self-report, both psychologically and physically. Their mean IES score deteriorated from a baseline of 15 (SD, 14) to 16 (SD, 18). In comparison, scores for the 31 control patients improved from 16 (SD, 12) to 13 (SD, 17). The difference in change was significant (P < 0.05). Among all patients with high initial scores, these decreased among the controls but not among those receiving the intervention. Conclusion: Psychological counselling should only be used in the context of trials rather than routine care.

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The rheological behaviour of nine unprocessed Australian honeys was investigated for the applicability of the Williams-Landel-Ferry (WLF) model. The viscosity of the honeys was obtained over a range of shear rates (0.01-40 s(-1)) from 2degrees to 40 degreesC, and all the honeys exhibited Newtonian behaviour with viscosity reducing as the temperature was increased. The honeys with high moisture were of lower viscosity, The glass transition temperatures of the honeys, as measured with a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), ranged from -40degrees to -46 degreesC, and four models (WLF. Arrhenius, Vogel-Tammann-Fulcher (VTF), and power-law) were investigated to describe the temperature dependence of the viscosity. The WLF was the most suitable and the correlation coefficient averaged 0.999 +/- 0.0013 as against 0.996 +/- 0.0042 for the Arrhenius model while the mean relative deviation modulus was 0-12% for the WLF model and 10-40% for the Arrhenius one. With the universal values for the WLF constants, the temperature dependence of the viscosity was badly predicted. From non-linear regression analysis, the constants of the WLF models for the honeys were obtained (C-1 = 13.7-21.1: C-2 = 55.9-118.7) and are different from the universal values. These WLF constants will be valuable for adequate modeling of the rheology of the honeys, and they can be used to assess the temperature sensitivity of the honeys. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible in humans. We want to develop a method to predict the portal venous time-activity curve from measurements of an arterial time-activity curve. An impulse-response function based on a continuous distribution of washout constants is developed and validated for the gut. Experiments with simultaneous blood sampling in aorta and portal vein were made in 13 anesthetized pigs following inhalation of intravascular [O-15] CO or injections of diffusible 3-O[ C-11] methylglucose (MG). The parameters of the impulse-response function have a physiological interpretation in terms of the distribution of washout constants and are mathematically equivalent to the mean transit time ( T) and standard deviation of transit times. The results include estimates of mean transit times from the aorta to the portal vein in pigs: (T) over bar = 0.35 +/- 0.05 min for CO and 1.7 +/- 0.1 min for MG. The prediction of the portal venous time-activity curve benefits from constraining the regression fits by parameters estimated independently. This is strong evidence for the physiological relevance of the impulse-response function, which includes asymptotically, and thereby justifies kinetically, a useful and simple power law. Similarity between our parameter estimates in pigs and parameter estimates in normal humans suggests that the proposed model can be adapted for use in humans.