A Score Test for Zero-Inflation in Correlated Count Data

To account for the preponderance of zero counts and simultaneous correlation of observations, a class of zero-inflated Poisson mixed regression models is applicable for accommodating the within-cluster dependence. In this paper, a score test for zero-inflation is developed for assessing correlated count data with excess zeros. The sampling distribution and the power of the test statistic are evaluated by simulation studies. The results show that the test statistic performs satisfactorily under a wide range of conditions. The test procedure is further illustrated using a data set on recurrent urinary tract infections. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of blast furnace raceway size with theory

A previously developed one-dimensional mathematical model, to explain raceway hysteresis, is used to predict the raceway diameter in operating blast furnaces and hot models. Raceway size obtained from the open literature under various conditions for various blast furnaces are compared with computed predictions. In addition the predictions are also compared with published outcomes from other hot models. Simulated results on raceway diameter are in very good agreement with published operating blast furnace and hot model data. The effect of various parameters such as tuyere and hearth diameter, coke size and density, void fraction and bed height on raceway diameter has been studied.

Improved algorithms for rare event simulation with heavy tails

The estimation of P(S-n > u) by simulation, where S, is the sum of independent. identically distributed random varibles Y-1,..., Y-n, is of importance in many applications. We propose two simulation estimators based upon the identity P(S-n > u) = nP(S, > u, M-n = Y-n), where M-n = max(Y-1,..., Y-n). One estimator uses importance sampling (for Y-n only), and the other uses conditional Monte Carlo conditioning upon Y1,..., Yn-1. Properties of the relative error of the estimators are derived and a numerical study given in terms of the M/G/1 queue in which n is replaced by an independent geometric random variable N. The conclusion is that the new estimators compare extremely favorably with previous ones. In particular, the conditional Monte Carlo estimator is the first heavy-tailed example of an estimator with bounded relative error. Further improvements are obtained in the random-N case, by incorporating control variates and stratification techniques into the new estimation procedures.

Isomeric distribution and catalyzed isomerization of cobalt(III) complexes with pentadentate macrocyclic ligands. Importance of hydrogen bonding

We have investigated the isomeric distribution and rearrangement of complexes of the type [CoXLn](2+,3+) (where X = Cl-, OH-, H2O, and L-n represents a pentadentate 13-, 14-, and 15-membered tetraaza or diaza-dithia (N-4 or N2S2) macrocycle bearing a pendant primary amine). The preparative procedures for chloro complexes produced almost exclusively kinetically preferred cis isomers (where the pendant primary amine is cis to the chloro ligand) that can be separated by careful cation-exchange chromatography. For L-13 and L-14 the so-called cis-V isomer is isolated as the kinetic product, and for L-15 the cis-VI form (an N-based diastereomer) is the preferred, while for the L-14(S) complex both cis-V and trans-I forms are obtained. All these complexes rearrange to form stable trans isomers in which the pendent primary amine is trans to the monodentate aqua or hydroxo ligand, depending on pH and the workup procedure. In total 11 different complexes have been studied. From these, two different trans isomers of [CoCIL14S](2+) have been characterized crystallographically for the first time in addition to a new structure of cis-V-[CoCIL14S](2+); all were isolated as their chloride perchlorate salts. Two additional isomers have been identified and characterized by NMR as reaction intermediates. The remaining seven forms correspond to the complexes already known, produced in preparative procedures. The kinetic, thermal, and baric activation parameters for all the isomerization reactions have been determined and involve large activation enthalpies and positive volumes of activation. Activation entropies indicate a very important degree of hydrogen bonding in the reactivity of the complexes, confirmed by density functional theory studies on the stability of the different isomeric forms. The isomerization processes are not simple and even some unstable intermediates have been detected and characterized as part of the above-mentioned 11 forms of the complexes. A common reaction mechanism for the isomerization reactions has been proposed for all the complexes derived from the observed kinetic and solution behavior.

Multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression modelling of correlated count data with excess zeros

Count data with excess zeros relative to a Poisson distribution are common in many biomedical applications. A popular approach to the analysis of such data is to use a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model. Often, because of the hierarchical Study design or the data collection procedure, zero-inflation and lack of independence may occur simultaneously, which tender the standard ZIP model inadequate. To account for the preponderance of zero counts and the inherent correlation of observations, a class of multi-level ZIP regression model with random effects is presented. Model fitting is facilitated using an expectation-maximization algorithm, whereas variance components are estimated via residual maximum likelihood estimating equations. A score test for zero-inflation is also presented. The multi-level ZIP model is then generalized to cope with a more complex correlation structure. Application to the analysis of correlated count data from a longitudinal infant feeding study illustrates the usefulness of the approach.

The role of habitat disturbance and recovery in metapopulation persistence

Classical metapopulation theory assumes a static landscape. However, empirical evidence indicates many metapopulations are driven by habitat succession and disturbance. We develop a stochastic metapopulation model, incorporating habitat disturbance and recovery, coupled with patch colonization and extinction, to investigate the effect of habitat dynamics on persistence. We discover that habitat dynamics play a fundamental role in metapopulation dynamics. The mean number of suitable habitat patches is not adequate for characterizing the dynamics of the metapopulation. For a fixed mean number of suitable patches, we discover that the details of how disturbance affects patches and how patches recover influences metapopulation dynamics in a fundamental way. Moreover, metapopulation persistence is dependent not only oil the average lifetime of a patch, but also on the variance in patch lifetime and the synchrony in patch dynamics that results from disturbance. Finally, there is an interaction between the habitat and metapopulation dynamics, for instance declining metapopulations react differently to habitat dynamics than expanding metapopulations. We close, emphasizing the importance of using performance measures appropriate to stochastic systems when evaluating their behavior, such as the probability distribution of the state of the. metapopulation, conditional on it being extant (i.e., the quasistationary distribution).

Toy model for a relational formulation of quantum theory

In the absence of an external frame of reference-i.e., in background independent theories such as general relativity-physical degrees of freedom must describe relations between systems. Using a simple model, we investigate how such a relational quantum theory naturally arises by promoting reference systems to the status of dynamical entities. Our goal is twofold. First, we demonstrate using elementary quantum theory how any quantum mechanical experiment admits a purely relational description at a fundamental. Second, we describe how the original non-relational theory approximately emerges from the fully relational theory when reference systems become semi-classical. Our technique is motivated by a Bayesian approach to quantum mechanics, and relies on the noiseless subsystem method of quantum information science used to protect quantum states against undesired noise. The relational theory naturally predicts a fundamental decoherence mechanism, so an arrow of time emerges from a time-symmetric theory. Moreover, our model circumvents the problem of the collapse of the wave packet as the probability interpretation is only ever applied to diagonal density operators. Finally, the physical states of the relational theory can be described in terms of spin networks introduced by Penrose as a combinatorial description of geometry, and widely studied in the loop formulation of quantum gravity. Thus, our simple bottom-up approach (starting from the semiclassical limit to derive the fully relational quantum theory) may offer interesting insights on the low energy limit of quantum gravity.