On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

The relationships among teacher behaviours, teacher efficacy, and student quality of school life: A multilevel perspective

This Study invesdgated the impact of teacher behaviours on student quaUt}' of school Ufe (SQSL). A measure of teacher organisadonal cidzenship behaviour (OCB) was developed, tapping two dimensions of organisadon-focused OCB (OCBO) and one dimension of individual-focused OCB (OCBI). In Une with previous research suggesdng that OCBOs may consdtute efficacyenhancing experiences, as weU as studies demonstradng the posidve consequences of teacher efficacy for students, we expected teacher efficacy to mediate the reladonship between OCBO and SQSL. Hypotheses were tested in a muldlevel design in which 171 teachers and their students (N=3018) completed quesdonnaires. A significant propordon of variance in SQSL was attributable to classroom factors. Support was found for the main effects of OCBO, as well as the main and mediadng effects of teacher efficacy.

A cross-linguistic comparison of address pronoun use in four European languages: Intralingual and interlingual dimensions

As part of a major ongoing project, we consider and compare contemporary patterns of address pronoun use in four major European languages- French, German, Italian and Swedish. We are specifically interested in two major aspects: intralingual behaviour, that is, within the same language community, and interlingual dimensions of address pronoun use. With respect to the former, we summarize our key findings to date. We then give consideration in a more preliminary fashion to issues and evidence relevant to the latter.

The politics and ethics of relocated art

At the end of Word War II, Soviet occupation forces removed countless art objects from German soil. Some of them were returned during the 1950s, but most either disappeared for good or were stored away secretly in cellars of Soviet museums. The Cold War then covered the issue with silence. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, museums in St Petersburg and Moscow started to exhibit some of the relocated art for the first time in half a century. The unusual quality of the paintings-mostly impressionist masterpieces-not only attracted the attention of the international art community, but also triggered a diplomatic row between Russia and Germany. Both governments advanced moral and legal claims to ownership. To make things even more complicated, many of the paintings once belonged to private collectors, some of whom were Jews. Their descendants also entered the dispute. The basic premise of this article is that the political and ethical dimensions of relocated art can be understood most adequately by eschewing a single authorial standpoint. Various positions, sometimes incommensurable ones, are thus explored in an attempt to outline possibilities for an ethics of representation and a dialogical solution to the international problem that relocated art has become.

The clinical value compass: Achieving benchmarking and quality improvement in aged care

Quality measurement and benchmarking in aged cave presents several challenges. A model which addresses this by linking four dimensions of outcomes has been developed - the Clinical Value Compass (CVC). A CVC was developed for stroke rehabilitation and measured across four sites. The CVC teas well accepted by the treatment teams and proved practical to measure. The results revealed differences in practices and client groups that led to a closer analysis of process and subsequent changes in these processes. Remeasuring of the CVC is required to demonstrate improved outcomes arising from these process changes.

Reaching those most in need: a review of diabetes self-management interventions in disadvantaged populations

There has been increased recognition of the importance of developing diabetes self-management education (DSME) interventions that are effective with under-served and minority populations. Despite several recent studies in this area, there is to our knowledge no systematic review or synthesis of what has been learned from this research. An electronic literature search identified five formative evaluations and ten controlled DSME intervention trials focused on under-served (low-income, minority or aged) populations. The RE-AIM (Reach, Efficacy, Adoption, Implementation, Maintenance) evaluation framework was used to evaluate the controlled studies on the dimensions of reach, efficacy, adoption, implementation, and maintenance. Fifty percent of the studies identified reported on the percentage of patients who participated, and the percentages were highly variable. The methodological quality of the articles was generally good and the short-term results were encouraging, especially on behavioral outcomes. Data on adoption (representativeness of settings and clinicians who participate) and implementation were almost never reported. Studies of modalities in addition to group meetings are needed to increase the reach of DSME with under-served populations. The promising formative evaluation work that has been conducted needs to be extended for more systematic study of the process of intervention implementation and adaptation with special populations. Studies that explicitly address the community context and that address multiple issues related to public health impact of DSME interventions are recommended to enhance long-term results. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Credibility and staff conduct make or break bank customer service quality

Service quality is assessed by customers along the dimensions of staff conduct, credibility, communication, and access to teller services. Credibility and staff conduct emerge as the highest loading first-order factors. This highlights the significance of rectifying mistakes while keeping customers informed, and employing branch staff that are responsive and civilized in their conduct. Discovery of a valid second-order factor, namely, overall customer service quality, underscores the importance of providing quality service across all its dimensions. For example, if the bank fails to rectify mistakes and keep customers informed but excels in all other dimensions, its overall customer service quality can still be rated poorly.

Quality of care of patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndromes

Background: Measurement and improvement of quality of care is a priority issue in health care. Patients hospitalized with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) constitute a high-risk population whose care, if shown to be suboptimal on the basis of available research evidence, may benefit from quality improvement interventions. Aim: To evaluate the quality of in-hospital care for patients with ACS, using explicit quality indicators. Methods: Retrospective case note review was undertaken of 397 patients admitted to three teaching hospitals in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, between 1 October 2000 and 17 April 2001. The main out-come measures were 12 process-of-care quality indicators, calculated as either: (i) the proportion of all patients who received specific interventions or (ii) the proportion of ideal patients who received -specific interventions (i.e. patients with clear indi-cations and lacking contraindications). Results: Quality indicators with values above 80% included: (i) patient selection for thrombolysis (100%) and discharge prescription of beta-blockers (84%), (ii) antiplatelet agents (94%) and (iii) lipid-lowering agents (82%). Indicators with values between 50% and 80% included: (i) timely per-formance of electrocardiogram (ECG) on admission (61%), (ii) early coronary angiography (75%), (iii) measurement of serum lipids (71%) and (iv) discharge prescription of angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors (73%). Indicators with values <50% included: (i) timely administration of thrombolysis (35%), (ii) non-invasive risk assessment (23%) and (ii) formal in-hospital and post-hospital cardiac rehabilitation (47% and 7%, respectively). Conclusion: There were delays in performing ECG and administering thrombolysis to patients who presented to emergency departments with ACS. Improvement is warranted in use of non-invasive procedures for identifying high-risk patients who may benefit from coronary revascularization as well as use of serum lipid measurements, ACE inhibitors and cardiac rehabilitation.

Quality of Life and Colorectal Cancer: a Review

Objectives: To describe what is known of quality of life for colorectal cancer patients, to review what has been done in the Australian setting and to identify emerging directions for future research to address current gaps in knowledge. Method: A literature search (using Medline, PsychInfo, CINAHL and Sociological Abstracts) was conducted and 41 articles identified for review. Results: Three key areas relating to quality of life in colorectal cancer patients emerged from the literature review: the definition and measurement of quality of life; predictors of quality of life; and the relationship of quality of life to survival. Results of existing studies are inconsistent in relation to quality of life over time and its relationship to survival. Small sample sizes and methodological limitations make interpretation difficult. Conclusions: There is a need for large-scale, longitudinal, population-based studies describing the quality of life experienced by colorectal cancer patients and its determinants. Measurement and simultaneous adjustment for potential confounding factors would productively advance knowledge in this area, as would an analysis of the economic cost of morbidity to the community and an assessment of the cost effectiveness of proposed interventions. Implications: As the Australian population ages, the prevalence of colorectal cancer within the community will increase. This burden of disease presents as a priority area for public health research. An improved understanding of quality of life and its predictors will inform the development and design of supportive interventions for those affected by the disease.

The relationship of adult attachment dimensions to depression and agoraphobia

We examined the unique relations between the five dimensions of the Attachment Style Questionnaire (ASQ; Feeney, Noller, & Hanrahan, 1994) and depression and agoraphobic behavior (i.e., avoidance of situations where high anxiety is experienced). In addition, we examined mediation models in an attempt to clarify the link between adult attachment and these two dimensions of psychopathology. In testing these models, we administered the ASQ, General Self-Efficacy Scale, Agoraphobic Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire, Beck Depression Inventory, and the Mobility Inventory for Agoraphobia (a measure of the degree to which situations are avoided that are typically anxiety provoking for people with agoraphobia) to 122 participants (44 with agoraphobia, 25 with a current major depressive disorder, and 53 with no current psychopathology). The results showed that the insecure attachment dimensions of need for approval, preoccupation with relationships, and relationships as secondary were uniquely associated with depression and that general self-efficacy partly mediated the relationship between need for approval and depression. In contrast, only preoccupation with relationships was uniquely associated with agoraphobic behavior, and catastrophic cognitions about bodily sensations partly mediated this association.