Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characteristics of undular hydraulic jumps: Experiments and analysis

The writers measured velocity, pressure and energy distributions, wavelengths, and wave amplitudes along undular jumps in a smooth rectangular channel 0.25 m wide. In each case the upstream flow was a fully developed shear flow. Analysis of the data shows that the jump has strong three-dimensional features and that the aspect ratio of the channel is an important parameter. Energy dissipation on the centerline is far from negligible and is largely constrained to the reach between the start of the lateral shock waves and the first wave crest of the jump, in which the boundary layer develops under a strong adverse pressure gradient. A Boussinesq-type solution of the free-surface profile, velocity, and energy and pressure distributions is developed and compared with the data. Limitations of the two-dimensional analysis are discussed.

Speciation of arsenic metabolites in the urine of occupational workers and experimental rats using an optimised hydride cold-trapping method

A hydride cold-trapping technique was developed and optimised for the measurement of urinary arsenic metabolites. The analytical precision of the method was found to be 6.1, 4.0 and 4.8% (n = 5) for inorganic arsenic (As-i), monomethylarsonate (MMA) and dimethylarsinate (DMA), respectively, with recoveries close to 100%, The detection limits were 1.0, 1.3 and 3 ng for As-i, MMA and DMA, respectively. The method was then used to analyse urine samples obtained from three groups of workers for occupational exposure in three companies where copper chrome arsenate was used for timber treatment. The results were compared with those for a normal control group of laboratory workers. Arsenic and its metabolites were also measured in experimental rats given 5 mg As kg(-1) body mass by oral gavage in the form of sodium arsenite, calcium arsenite or sodium arsenate. Occupational workers showed a significantly higher excretion of As-i, Up to two fold increases of urinary As-i excretion in rats compared with control rats were also observed in animals dosed with various forms of arsenicals. The method is suitable for the measurement of arsenic metabolites in urine of both humans and experimental animals.

MDMA (Ecstasy) neurotoxicity: assessing and communicating the risks

MDMA (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine) is an amphetamine analogue that produces euphoric and stimulant effects and a feeling of closeness towards others.1 and 2 For more than a decade, MDMA (colloquially known as “Ecstasy” or “E”) has been widely used by young adults as a dance-party drug. The usual recreational oral dose is 1-2 tablets (each containing about 60-120 mg of MDMA) a standard oral dose of 0·75–4·00 mg per kg in 60–80 kg people. MDMA is typically used once fortnightly or less because tolerance to the effects of MDMA develops rapidly. More frequent use requires larger doses to achieve the desired effects, but this increases the prevalence of unpleasant side-effects.3 A number of deaths have occurred as a result of malignant hyperthermia or idiosyncractic reactions to the drug, but these have been rare.4 MDMA is perceived by many users to be a safe drug.1 Few report the craving associated with opiates or cocaine3 and most MDMA users are aware of only mild and transient disruptions of functioning.3 and 5 AC Parrott and J Lasky, Ecstasy (MDMA) effects upon mood and cognition: before, during and after a Saturday night dance, Psychopharmacology 139 (1998), pp. 261–268. Full Text via CrossRef | View Record in Scopus | Cited By in Scopus (174)5 The perceived safety of MDMA is at odds with animal evidence of MDMA neurotoxicity, an increasing prevalence of hazardous patterns of use among recreational MDMA users, and emerging evidence of neurotoxicity among heavier MDMA users.

The development and evaluation of an incontinence screening questionnaire for female primary care

Although there is a high prevalence of leaking urine among Australian women, there are currently no standardized procedures for screening patients for incontinence in the primary care setting (known in Australia as general practice). In response to this, an incontinence screening questionnaire (ISQ) was developed and evaluated for use in general practice. Eighty-nine women completed an original compilation of 33 items that asked about situations associated with leaking urine, avoidance of leakage, and concern about leakage. Each item was assessed according to its acceptability for the population of female general practice patients, discriminative value, and test-retest reliability. These patients also underwent an objective test of incontinence, the 48-hour pad test, so that the screening items could be validated against an objective classification of incontinence. The study included women who had bladder control problems and those who did not. Eight items on the ISQ were shown to be acceptable to patients, discriminative, reliable, and valid indicators of objective incontinence. Five items were capable of predicting almost 70% of patients who showed objective leakage of urine and misclassified fewer than 15% of these patients. Those five items were selected for inclusion in the (refined) ISQ. (C) 2000 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Developing a framework for assessment of the environmental determinants of walking and cycling

The focus for interventions and research on physical activity has moved away from vigorous activity to moderate-intensity activities, such as walking. In addition, a social ecological approach to physical activity research and practice is recommended. This approach considers the influence of the environment and policies on physical activity. Although there is limited empirical published evidence related to the features of the physical environment that influence physical activity, urban planning and transport agencies have developed policies and strategies that have the potential to influence whether people walk or cycle in their neighbourhood. This paper presents the development of a framework of the potential environmental influences on walking and cycling based on published evidence and policy literature, interviews with experts and a Delphi study. The framework includes four features: functional, safety, aesthetic and destination; as well as the hypothesised factors that contribute to each of these features of the environment. In addition, the Delphi experts determined the perceived relative importance of these factors. Based on these factors, a data collection tool will be developed and the frameworks will be tested through the collection of environmental information on neighbourhoods, where data on the walking and cycling patterns have been collected previously. Identifying the environmental factors that influence walking and cycling will allow the inclusion of a public health perspective as well as those of urban planning and transport in the design of built environments. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd., All rights reserved.

A study of the interaction between operator style and machine capability for a hydraulic mining excavator

This paper presents a case study that explores how operator digging style juxtaposes with mechanical capability for a class of hydraulic mining excavators. The relationships between actuator and digging forces are developed and these are used to identify the excavator's capability to apply forces in various directions. Two distinct modes of operation are examined to see how they relate to the mechanical capabilities of the linkage and to establish if one has merit over the other. It is found that one of these styles results in lower loading of the machine.

The policy cycle and vernacular globalization: a case study of the creation of Vietnam National University - Hochiminh City

This article examines the policy cycle and vernacular globalization in the context of higher education reform in Vietnam. Through an analysis of the development of the Vietnam National University - Hochiminh City as part of the post-1986 reconstruction of Vietnamese higher education, the article considers the complex interrelationship between globalized policy discourses, national interests and history in Vietnam, and the specific politics of policy implementation within one institution. Vietnam National University - Hochiminh City was created through an amalgamation of a number of smaller universities, and against the backdrop of social and economic restructuring aimed at promoting industrialization and a market orientation within socialist governance. The article reveals the dynamic tension between these local and global influences on higher education policy and practice, and more specifically, the dilemmas associated with top-down policy implementation when a new organization consists of older organizations with powerful provenance and reputations. In so doing the article demonstrates the necessity to globalize policy theory.

Separation and hedging results with state-contingent production

A state-contingent model of production under uncertainty is developed and compared with more traditional models of production under uncertainty. Producer behaviour with both production and price risk, in the presence and in the absence of futures and forward markets, is analysed in this state-contingent framework. Conditions for the optimal hedge to be positive or negative are derived. We also show that, under plausible conditions, a risk-averse producer facing price uncertainty and the ability to hedge price risk will never willingly adopt a nonstochastic technology. New separation results, which hold in the presence of both price and production risk, are then developed. These separation results generalize Townsend's spanning results by reducing the number of necessary forward markets by one.

How can and do Australian doctors promote physical activity?

Background. Physical inactivity is recognized as an important public health issue. Yet little is known about doctors' knowledge, attitude, skills, and resources specifically relating to the promotion of physical activity. Our survey assessed the current practice, perceived desirable practice, confidence, and barriers related to the promotion of physical activity in family practice, Methods. A questionnaire was developed and distributed to all 1,228 family practitioners in Perth, Western Australia. Results. We received a 71% response (n = 789). Family practitioners are most likely to recommend walking to sedentary adults to improve fitness and they are aware of the major barriers to patients participating in physical activity. Doctors are less confident at providing specific advice on exercise and may require further skills, knowledge, and experience, Although they promote exercise to patients through verbal advice in the consultation, few use written materials or referral systems, Conclusions. There are significant differences between self-reports of current practice and perceived desirable practice in the promotion of physical activity by doctors, Future strategies need to address the self-efficacy of family physicians and involve resources of proven effectiveness. The potential of referral systems for supporting efforts to increase physical activity by Australians should be explored. (C) 1997 Academic Press.

Poverty - dynamic and sustainability perspectives: Implications for welfare and policy with reference to India

After outlining some comparative features of poverty in India, this article reviews critically recent literature on the dynamics of poverty. On economic efficiency grounds, it rejects the view that the chronically poor are more deserving than the non-chronic poor of poverty assistance. Mechanisms of households and communities for coping with poverty are discussed. The possibility is raised that where poverty has been persistent that rational methods for coping with it are likely to be well established, and less suffering may occur than for households and communities thrown temporarily into poverty. However, situations can also be envisaged where such rational behaviours deepen the poverty trap and create unfavourable externalities for poverty alleviation. Conflict can arise between programmes to alleviate poverty in poor communities and the sustainability of these communities and their local cultures. Problems posed by this are discussed. Furthermore, the impact of market extension on poor landholders is considered. In contrast to the prevailing view that increased market extension and liberalisation is favourable to poor farmers, it is argued that inescapable market transaction cost makes it difficult for the poor to survive as landholders in a fluid and changing market system. The likelihood of poor landholders joining the landless poor rises, and if they migrate from the countryside to the city they face further adjustment hurdles. Consequently, poor landholders may be poorer after the extension of the market system and only their offspring may reap benefits from market reforms.

Development and implementation of the population Fisher information matrix for the evaluation of population pharmacokinetic designs.

In population pharmacokinetic studies, the precision of parameter estimates is dependent on the population design. Methods based on the Fisher information matrix have been developed and extended to population studies to evaluate and optimize designs. In this paper we propose simple programming tools to evaluate population pharmacokinetic designs. This involved the development of an expression for the Fisher information matrix for nonlinear mixed-effects models, including estimation of the variance of the residual error. We implemented this expression as a generic function for two software applications: S-PLUS and MATLAB. The evaluation of population designs based on two pharmacokinetic examples from the literature is shown to illustrate the efficiency and the simplicity of this theoretic approach. Although no optimization method of the design is provided, these functions can be used to select and compare population designs among a large set of possible designs, avoiding a lot of simulations.

Trade relationships between the Gulf Cooperation Council and the European Union

This paper examines the trade relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the European Union (EU). A simultaneous equation regression model is developed and estimated to assist with the analysis. The regression results, using both the two stage least squares (2SLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation methods, reveal the existence of feedback effects between the two economic integrations. The results also show that during times of slack in oil prices, the GCC income from its investments overseas helped to finance its imports from the EU.

Repeated flood events and fossil forests at Curio Bay (Middle Jurassic), New Zealand

During the Middle Jurassic, the regional environment of Curio Bay, southeast South Island, New Zealand, was a fluvial plain marginal to volcanic uplands. Intermittent flashy, poorly-confined flood events buried successive conifer forests. With the termination of each flood, soils developed and vegetation was reestablished. In most cases, this developed into coniferous forest. In approximately 40 m of vertical section, 10 fossil forest horizons can be distinguished, highlighting a type of fluvial architecture which is poorly documented. Flood-basin material is minimal, but a short-Lived floodbasin lake is inferred to have developed within the interval of study. Paleocurrent indicators suggest enclosure of the basin on more than one side. Sedimentation style suggests a relatively dry (less than humid but not arid) climate with seasonal rainfall. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Precipitation hardening of Cu-Fe-Cr alloys - Part I - Mechanical and electrical properties

This research is part of a project whose scope was to investigate the engineering properties of new non-commercial alloy formulations based on the Cu rich corner of the Cu-Fe-Cr ternary system with the primary aim of exploring the development of a new cost-effective high-strength, high-conductivity copper alloy. The literature indicated that Cu rich Cu-Cr and Cu-Fe alloys have been thoroughly investigated. A number of commercial alloys have been developed and these are used for a variety of applications requiring combinations of high-strength, high-conductivity and resistance to softening. Little evidence was found in the literature that the Cu rich corner of the Cu-Fe-Cr system had previously been investigated for the purpose of developing high-strength, high-conductivity copper alloys resistant to softening. The aim of these present investigations was to explore the possibility that new alloys could be developed that combined the properties of both sets of alloys, ie large precipitation hardening response combined with the ability to stabilise cold worked microstructures to high temperatures while at the same maintain high electrical conductivity. To assess the feasibility of this goal the following alloys were chosen for investigation: Cu-0.7wt%Cr-0.3wt%Fe, Cu-0.7wt%Cr-0.8wt%Fe, Cu-0.7wt%Cr-2.0wt%Fe. This paper reports on the mechanical property investigation which indicated that the Cu-0.7wt%Cr-0.3wt%Fe, and Cu-0.7wt%Cr-2.0wt%Fe alloys were worthy of further investigation. (C) 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers.