A new wavelet-based method for the solution of the population balance equation

A new wavelet-based method for solving population balance equations with simultaneous nucleation, growth and agglomeration is proposed, which uses wavelets to express the functions. The technique is very general, powerful and overcomes the crucial problems of numerical diffusion and stability that often characterize previous techniques in this area. It is also applicable to an arbitrary grid to control resolution and computational efficiency. The proposed technique has been tested for pure agglomeration, simultaneous nucleation and growth, and simultaneous growth and agglomeration. In all cases, the predicted and analytical particle size distributions are in excellent agreement. The presence of moving sharp fronts can be addressed without the prior investigation of the characteristics of the processes. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

A proposal for developing a large patient population cohort for longterm safety monitoring in rheumatoid arthritis

This paper proposes the creation of an objectively acquired reference database to more accurately characterize the incidence and longterm risk of relatively infrequent, but serious, adverse events. Such a database would be maintained longitudinally to provide for ongoing comparison with new rheumatologic drug safety databases collecting the occurrences and treatments of rare events, We propose the establishment of product-specific registries to prospectively follow a cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) who receive newly approved therapies. In addition, a database is required of a much larger cohort of RA patients treated with multiple second line agents of sufficient size to enable case-controlled determinations of the relative incidence of rare but serious events in the treated (registry) versus the larger disease population, The number of patients necessary for agent-specific registries and a larger patient population adequate to supply a matched case-control cohort will depend upon estimates of the detectability of an increased incidence over background. We suggest a system to carry out this proposal that will involve an umbrella organization. responsible for establishment of this large patient cohort, envisioned to be drawn from around the world.

Effectiveness of brown planthopper predators: Population suppression by two species of spider, Pardosa pseudoannulata (Araneae, Lycosidae) and Araneus inustus (Araneae, Araneidae)

The most abundant natural enemies found in Cambodian rice field are spiders, mostly Araneus inustus and Pardosa pseudoannulata. These two hunting and wolf spider, respectively, are believed to actively contribute to brown planthopper (BPH) population control. However, how much each species attacks prey in Cambodian field condition is unknown. We conducted field experiments in Cambodia during the wet season at two locations, a famner's fields at Takeo and at CARDI, using both field cages and natural conditions. Cages were sprayed with insecticide to remove all pre-existing insects in the cages and then washed after 10 days to reduce insecticide residue. Results confirmed BPH inside the cage were killed by the insecticide. A known BPH population was reared inside the cages starting with 3 pairs of adults. Temporary cages were removed after counting second instar BPH and permanent cages were left in place. Spiders were released into the cages for 15 days. In permanent cages either two individual A. inustus or P. pseudoannulata were allowed to feed on BPH prey. Both spider species have the same killing ability in dense prey populations, but predation is higher for Pardosa at low prey density. In uncaged field environments (where more than just BPH prey are available) with a spider/BPH ratio 1:3 to 1:11 BPH mortality was 78–91%. Within 15 days in permanent cages spiders caused 100% BPH mortality at an average predator/prey ratio of 1:5 to 1:14. At a ratio of 1:18 or higher there was some BPH survival in cages.

A phylogeny for the genus Isoodon and a range extension for I-obesulus peninsulae based on mtDNA control region and morphology

Short-nosed bandicoots, Isoodon, have undergone marked range contractions since European colonisation of Australia and are currently divided into many subspecies, the validity of which is debated. Discriminant function analysis of morphology and a phylogeny of Isoodon based on mtDNA control region sequences indicate a clear split between two of the three recognised species, I. macrourus and I. obesulus/auratus. However, while all previously recognised taxa within the I. obesulus/auratus group are morphologically distinct, I. auratus and I. obesulus are not phylogenetically distinct for mtDNA. The genetic divergence between I. obesulus and I. auratus (2.6%) is similar to that found among geographic isolates of the former (I. o. obesulus and I. o. peninsulae: 2.7%). Further, the divergence between geographically close populations of two different species (I. o. obesulus from Western Australia and I. a. barrowensis: 1.2%) is smaller than that among subspecies within I. auratus (I. a. barrowensis and I. auratus from northern Western Australia: 1.7%). A newly discovered population of Isoodon in the Lamb Range, far north Queensland, sympatric with a population of I. m. torosus, is shown to represent a range extension of I. o. peninsulae (350 km). It seems plausible that what is currently considered as two species, I. obesulus and I. auratus, was once one continuous species now represented by isolated populations that have diverged morphologically as a consequence of adaptation to the diverse environments that occur throughout their range. The taxonomy of these populations is discussed in relation to their morphological distinctiveness and genetic similarity.

The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Inferring population history from microsatellite and enzyme data in serially introduced cane toads, Bufo marinus

Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane Load Bufo marinas in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory, population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information With microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history,. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Verb, little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits Of Our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.

Cost of malaria control in China: Henan's consolidation programme from community and government perspectives

Objective To assist with strategic planning for the eradication,of malaria in Henan Province, China, which reached the consolidation phase of malaria control in 1992, when only 318 malaria cases were reported, Methods We conducted a prospective two-year study of the costs for Henan's malaria control programme. We used a cost model that could also be applied to other malaria programmes in-mainland China, and analysed the cost of the three components of Henan's malaria programme. suspected malaria case management,, vector surveillance,,and population blood surveys. Primary cost data were collected from the government, and data on suspected malaria patient's were collected in two malaria counties (population 2 093 100). We enlisted the help of 260 village doctors. in six-townships or former communities (population 247 762), and studied all 12 315 reported cases of suspected malaria in catchment areas in 1994 and 1995. Findings The average-annual government investment in malaria control was estimated to be US$ 111 516 (case-management 59%; active blood surveys 25%;vector surveillance 12%; and contingencies and special projects 4%). The average cost (direct and indirect) for-patients seeking-treatment for suspected malaria was US$ 3.48, equivalent,to 10 days' income for rural residents. Each suspected malaria case cost the government an, average of US$ 0.78. Conclusion Further cuts in government funding will increase future costs, when epidemic malaria returns; investment in malaria control should therefore continue at least at current levels,of US$ 0.03 per person a risk.

Melanoma in adolescents: A case-control study of risk factors in Queensland, Australia

The incidence of melanoma increases markedly in the second decade of life but almost nothing is known of the causes of melanoma in this age group. We report on the first population-based case-control study of risk factors for melanoma in adolescents (15-19 years). Data were collected through personal interviews with cases, controls and parents. A single examiner conducted full-body nevus counts and blood samples were collected from cases for analysis of the CDKN2A melanoma predisposition gene. A total of 201 (80%) of the 250 adolescents with melanoma diagnosed between 1987 and 1994 and registered with the Queensland Cancer Registry and 205 (79%) of 258 age-, gender- and location-matched controls who were contacted agreed to participate. The strongest risk factor associated with melanoma in adolescents in a multivariate model was the presence of more than 100 nevi 2 mm or more in diameter (odds ratio [OR] = 46.5, 95% confidence interval [Cl] = 11.4-190.8). Other risk factors were red hair (OR = 5.4, 95%Cl = 1.0-28.4); blue eyes (OR = 4.5, 95%Cl = 1.5- 13.6); inability to tan after prolonged sun exposure (OR = 4.7, 95%Cl = 0.9-24.6); heavy facial freckling (OR = 3.2, 95% Cl = 0.9-12.3); and family history of melanoma (OR = 4.0, 95%Cl = 0.8-18.9). Only 2 of 147 cases tested had germline variants or mutations in CDKN2A. There was no association with sunscreen use overall, however, never/rare use of sunscreen at home under the age of 5 years was associated with increased risk (OR = 2.2, 95%Cl = 0.7-7.1). There was no difference between cases and controls in cumulative sun exposure in this high-exposure environment. Factors indicating genetic susceptibility to melanoma, in particular, the propensity to develop nevi and freckles, red hair, blue eyes, inability to tan and a family history of the disease are the primary determinants of melanoma among adolescents in this high solar radiation environment. Lack of association with reported sun exposure is consistent with the high genetic susceptibility in this group. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Economic and environmental impacts of pollution control in a system of environment and economic interdependence

The importance of the rate of change of the pollution stock in determining the damage to the environment has been an issue of increasing concern in the literature. This paper uses a three-sector (economy, population and environment), non-linear, discrete time, calibrated model to examine pollution control. The model explicitly links economic growth to the health of the environment. The stock of natural resources is affected by the rate of pollution flows, through their impact on the regenerative capacity of the natural resource stock. This can shed useful insights into pollution control strategies, particularly in developing countries where environmental resources are crucial for production in many sectors of the economy. Simulation exercises suggested that, under plausible assumptions, it is possible to reverse undesirable transient dynamics through pollution control expenditure, but this is dependent upon the strategies used for control. The best strategy is to spend money fostering the development of production technologies that reduce pollution rather than spending money dealing with the effects of the pollution flow into the environment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lack of association between CYP1A1 polymorphism and Parkinson's disease in a Chinese population

Apart from very few families who have a direct cause from genetic mutation, causes of most Parkinson's disease (PD) remain unclear. Many allelic association studies on polymorphism of different candidate genes have been studied. Although these association studies do not imply a causal relationship, it does warrant further studies to elucidate the pathophysiologic significance. CYP1A1 polymorphisms have been reported to be associated with PD in a Japanese population sample. Since CYP1A1 transforms aromatic hydrocarbons into products that may be neurotoxic and perhaps lead to PD, we therefore undertook a study to look at the possible association of CYP1A1 polymorphism and PD in a Chinese population. Contrary to the Japanese result, we did not find any statistically significant difference between the PD group and the control group in our study with a bigger sample size.

Effects of paternal drinking, conduct disorder and childhood home environment on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population

Aims To identify influences on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population, particularly parental drinking and childhood environment. Design Case-control study. Setting A university hospital, a regional hospital and a community hospital in southern Thailand. Participants Ninety-one alcohol-dependents and 177 hazardous/harmful drinkers were recruited as cases and 144 non-or infrequent drinkers as controls. Measurements Data on parental drinking, family demographic characteristics, family activities, parental disciplinary practice, early religious life and conduct disorder were obtained using a structured interview questionnaire. The main outcome measure was the subject's classification as alcohol-dependent, hazardous/harmful drinker or non-/infrequent drinker. Findings A significant relationship was found between having a drinking father and the occurrence of hazardous/harmful drinking or alcohol dependence in the subjects. Childhood factors (conduct disorder and having been a temple boy, relative probability ratios, RPRs and 95% CI: 6.39, 2.81-14.55 and 2.21, 1.19-4.08, respectively) also significantly predicted alcohol dependence, while perceived poverty and ethnic alienation was reported less frequently by hazardous/harmful drinkers and alcohol-dependents (RPRS and 95% CIs = 0.34, 0.19-0.62 and 0.59, 0.38-0.93, respectively) than the controls. The relative probability ratio for the effect of the father's infrequent drinking on the son's alcohol dependence was 2.92 (95% CI = 1.42-6.02) and for the father's heavy or dependent drinking 2.84 (95% CI=1.31-6.15). Conclusions Being exposed to a light-drinking, father increases the risk of a son's alcohol use disorders exhibited either as hazardous-harmful or dependent drinking. However, exposure to a heavy- or dependent-drinking father is associated more uniquely with an increased risk of his son being alcohol-dependent. The extent to which this is seen in other cultures is worthy of exploration.

Review and future directions in the modelling and control of continuous drum granulation

Many granulation plants operate well below design capacity, suffering from high recycle rates and even periodic instabilities. This behaviour cannot be fully predicted using the present models. The main objective of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status of model development for granulation processes and suggest future directions for research and development. The end-use of the models is focused on the optimal design and control of granulation plants using the improved predictions of process dynamics. The development of novel models involving mechanistically based structural switching methods is proposed in the paper. A number of guidelines are proposed for the selection of control relevant model structures. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Appropriate indicators for injury control?

Indicators are valuable tools used to measure progress towards a desired health outcome. Increased awareness of the public health burden due to injury has lead to a concomitant interest in monitoring the impact of national initiatives that aim to reduce the size of the burden. Several injury indicators have now been proposed. This study examines the ability of each of the suggested indicators to reflect the nature and extent of the burden of non-fatal injury. A criterion validity, population-based, prospective cohort study was conducted in Brisbane, a sub-tropical Metropolitan City on the eastern seaboard of Australia, over a 12-month period between 1 January and 31 December 1998. Neither the presence of a long bone fracture nor the need for hospitalisation for 4 or more days were sensitive or specific indicators for 'serious' or major injury as defined by the 'Gold Standard' Injury Severity Score (ISS). Subsequent analysis, using other public health outcome measures demonstrated that the major component of the illness burden of injury was in fact due to 'minor' not serious injury. However, the suggested indicators demonstrated low sensitivity and specificity for these outcomes as well. The results of the study support the need to include at least all hospitalisations in any population-based measure of injury and not attempt to simplify the indicator to a more convenient measure aimed at identifying just those cases of,serious' injury.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.