Effect of rainfall as a component of climate change on estuarine fish production in Queensland, Australia

The speculation that climate change may impact on sustainable fish production suggests a need to understand how these effects influence fish catch on a broad scale. With a gross annual value of A$ 2.2 billion, the fishing industry is a significant primary industry in Australia. Many commercially important fish species use estuarine habitats such as mangroves, tidal flats and seagrass beds as nurseries or breeding grounds and have lifecycles correlated to rainfall and temperature patterns. Correlation of catches of mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus) and barramundi (Lates calcarifer) with rainfall suggests that fisheries may be sensitive to effects of climate change. This work reviews key commercial fish and crustacean species and their link to estuaries and climate parameters. A conceptual model demonstrates ecological and biophysical links of estuarine habitats that influences capture fisheries production. The difficulty involved in explaining the effect of climate change on fisheries arising from the lack of ecological knowledge may be overcome by relating climate parameters with long-term fish catch data. Catch per unit effort (CPUE), rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and catch time series for specific combinations of climate seasons and regions have been explored and surplus production models applied to Queensland's commercial fish catch data with the program CLIMPROD. Results indicate that up to 30% of Queensland's total fish catch and up to 80% of the barramundi catch variation for specific regions can be explained by rainfall often with a lagged response to rainfall events. Our approach allows an evaluation of the economic consequences of climate parameters on estuarine fisheries. thus highlighting the need to develop forecast models and manage estuaries for future climate chan e impact by adjusting the quota for climate change sensitive species. Different modelling approaches are discussed with respect to their forecast ability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lack of an osmotic constraint on intake rate of the eastern curlew Numenius madagascariensis

Rates of food intake in animals consuming abundant prey can be constrained by the rates of digestion or excretion of ingested substances, such as salt, particularly so in the animals that regularly migrate between freshwater and saltwater environments. We tested this hypothesis in a long-distance migrant shorebird, the eastern curlew Numenius madagascariensis (suborder Charadrii), foraging on intertidal decapods in eastern Australia. We predicted that if food intake rates are constrained osmotically, individuals with access to freshwater and less saline prey (FW group) would have higher rates of food and water intake than individuals with seawater-only access (SW group). Food intake rates did not differ between the FW and SW groups (0.14 g ash-free dry mass min(-1)), nor did the water influx rates (0.75 g min(-1)). Salt intake rates were lower at FW sites (19.3 versus 23.3 mg NaCl min(-1)) and overall they were similar to those of marine birds. Food intake rate in the eastern curlew appeared limited by digestive rather than by osmoregulatory capacity.

Reliably estimating the effect of toxicants on fertilization success in marine broadcast spawners

Recently, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of ecotoxicological studies examining the effects of toxicants on fertilization success in marine broadcast spawners and it appears that this life-history stage is one of the most vulnerable to toxicants. Most of the studies examining this issue use single sperm concentrations in their assays. Here, I discuss recent advances in fertilization ecology that suggest this technique has some severe limitations resulting in unreliable estimations of the size and direction of toxicant effects. I present an alternative assay technique and two metrics (F-max and [Sperm](max)) that will reliably estimate the size of a toxicant's effect on fertilization success. This technique has the added advantage of making comparisons among species and studies easier without an impractical increase in effort. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of larval age on morphology and gene expression during ascidian metamorphosis

Metamorphosis is both an ecological and a developmental genetic transition that an organism undergoes as a normal part of ontogeny. Many organisms have the ability to delay metamorphosis when conditions are unsuitable. This strategy carries obvious benefits, but may also result in severe consequences for older larvae that run low on energy. In the marine environment, some lecithotrophic larvae that have prolonged periods in the plankton may begin forming postlarval and juvenile structures that normally do not appear until after settlement and the initiation of metamorphosis. This precocious activation of the postlarval developmental program may reflect an adaptation to increase the survival of older, energy-depleted larvae by allowing them to metamorphose more quickly. In the present study, we investigate morphological and genetic consequences of delay of metamorphosis in larvae of Herdmania momus (a solitary stolidobranch ascidian). We observe significant morphological and genetic changes during prolonged larval life, with older larvae displaying significant changes in RNA levels, precocious migration of mesenchyme cells, and changes in larval shape including shortening of the tail. While these observations suggest that the older H. momus larvae are functionally different from younger larvae and possibly becoming more predisposed to undergo metamorphosis, we did not find any significant differences in gene expression levels between postlarvae arising from larvae that metamorphosed as soon as they were competent and postlarvae developing from larvae that postponed metamorphosis. This recalibration, or convergence, of transcript levels in the early postlarva suggests that changes that occur during prolonged larval life of H. momus are not necessarily associated with early activation of adult organ differentiation. Instead, it suggests that an autonomous developmental program is activated in H. momus upon the induction of metamorphosis regardless of the history of the larva.

Hematozoa of teleosts from Lizard Island, Australia with some comments on their possible mode of transmission and the description of a new hemogregarine species

Little is known of the blood parasites of coral reef fishes and nothing of how they are transmitted. We examined 497 fishes from 22 families, 47 genera, and 78 species captured at Lizard Island, Australia, between May 1997 and April 2003 for hematozoa and ectoparasites. We also investigated whether gnathiid isopods might serve as potential vectors of fish hemogregarines. Fifty-eight of 124 fishes caught in March 2002 had larval gnathiid isopods, up to 80 per host fish, and these were identified experimentally to be of 2 types, Gnathia sp. A and Gnathia sp. B. Caligid copepods were also recorded but no leeches. Hematozoa, found in 68 teleosts, were broadly hemogregarines of 4 types and an infection resembling Haemohormidium. Mixed infections (hemogregarine with Haemohormidium) were also observed, but no trypanosomes were detected in blood films. The hemogregarines were identified as Haemogregarina balistapi n. sp., Haemogregarina tetraodontis, possibly Haemogregarina bigemina, and an intraleukocytic hemogregarine of uncertain status. Laboratory-reared Gnathia sp. A larvae, fed experimentally on bruslitail tangs, the latter heavily infected with the H. bigemina-like hemogregarine, contained hemogregarine gamonts and possibly young oocysts up to 3 days postfeeding, but no firm evidence that gnathiids transmit hemogregarines at Lizard Island was obtained.

Refinement-robust fairness

We motivate and study the robustness of fairness notions under refinement of transitions and places in Petri nets. We show that the classical notions of weak and strong fairness are not robust and we propose a hierarchy of increasingly strong, refinement-robust fairness notions. That hierarchy is based on the conflict structure of transitions, which characterizes the interplay between choice and synchronization in a fairness notion. Our fairness notions are defined on non-sequential runs, but we show that the most important notions can be easily expressed on sequential runs as well. The hierarchy is further motivated by a brief discussion on the computational power of the fairness notions.

Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quasistationarity of continuous-time Markov chains with positive drift

We shall study continuous-time Markov chains on the nonnegative integers which are both irreducible and transient, and which exhibit discernible stationarity before drift to infinity sets in. We will show how this 'quasi' stationary behaviour can be modelled using a limiting conditional distribution: specifically, the limiting state probabilities conditional on not having left 0 for the last time. By way of a dual chain, obtained by killing the original process on last exit from 0, we invoke the theory of quasistationarity for absorbing Markov chains. We prove that the conditioned state probabilities of the original chain are equal to the state probabilities of its dual conditioned on non-absorption, thus allowing us to establish the simultaneous existence and then equivalence, of their limiting conditional distributions. Although a limiting conditional distribution for the dual chain is always a quasistationary distribution in the usual sense, a similar statement is not possible for the original chain.