Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Influence of ageing, heat shock treatment and in vivo total antioxidant status on gene-expression profile and protein synthesis in human peripheral lymphocytes

Ageing results in a progressive, intrinsic and generalised imbalance of the control of regulatory systems. A key manifestation of this complex biological process includes the attenuation of the universal stress response. Here we provide the first global assessment of the ageing process as it affects the heat shock response, utilising human peripheral lymphocytes and cDNA microarray analysis. The genomic approach employed in our preliminary study was supplemented with a proteomic approach. In addition, the current study correlates the in vivo total antioxidant status with the age-related differential gene expression as well as the translational kinetics of heat shock proteins (hsps). Most of the genes encoding stress response proteins on the 4224 element microarray used in this study were significantly elevated after heat shock treatment of lymphocytes obtained from both young and old individuals albeit to a greater extent in the young. Cell signaling and signal transduction genes as well as some oxidoreductases showed varied response. Results from translational kinetics of induction of major hsps, from 0 to 24 It recovery period were broadly consistent with the differential expression of HSC 70 and HSP 40 genes. Total antioxidant levels in plasma from old individuals were found to be significantly lower by comparison with young, in agreement with the widely acknowledged role of oxidant homeostasis in the ageing process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unexpected clobetasol propionate profile in human stratum corneum after topical application in vitro

Purpose. The validity of using drug amount-depth profiles in stratum corneum to predict uptake of clobetasol propionate into stratum corneum and its transport into deeper skin layers was investigated. Methods. In vitro diffusion experiments through human epidermis were carried out using Franz-type glass diffusion cells. A saturated solution of clobetasol propionate in 20% (V/V) aqueous propylene glycol was topically applied for 48 h. Steady state flux was calculated from the cumulative amount of drug permeated vs. time profile. Epidermal partitioning was conducted by applying a saturated drug solution to both sides of the epidermis and allowing time to equilibrate. The tape stripping technique was used to define drug concentration-depth profiles in stratum corneum for both the diffusion and equilibrium experiments. Results. The concentration-depth profile of clobetasol propionate in stratum corneum for the diffusion experiment is biphasic. A logarithmic decline of the drug concentration over the first four to five tape strips flattens to a relatively constant low concentration level in deeper layers. The drug concentration-depth profile for the equilibrium studies displays a similar shape. Conclusions. The shape of the concentration-depth profile of clobetasol propionate is mainly because of the variable partitioning coefficient in different stratum corneum layers.

Chemical characterisation of deep profile Ferrosols under sugarcane in wet tropical northern Queensland

The chemical properties of deep profile samples ( up to 12 m) of Ferrosols from northern Queensland were investigated to provide an understanding of the accumulation of nitrate ( NO3) within these soil profiles. The influence of other cations and anions present in the soil solution or on the exchange and the charge chemistry of the profiles were examined with respect to the NO3 accumulations. The major ions in the soil solution were Na, NO3, and chloride ( Cl). Distinct regions of anion accumulation were observed; SO4 accumulated in the upper profile of all cores, whereas NO3 and Cl accumulations were restricted to the lower profile of cores with appreciable AEC (> 1 cmol(c)/kg). Gaines-Thomas selectivity coefficients were used to indicate exchange preference for cations and anions, and are as follows: Al > Ca similar to Mg > K > Na and sulfate (SO4) > Cl similar to NO3. The selectivity of SO4 increased and the extractable SO4 decreased in the lower profile of all cores. This has important implications for the adsorption of NO3 and Cl. The NO3 and Cl accumulations were shown to correspond to a region of low SO4 occupancy of the exchange sites in the lower profile. Along with the high SO4 selectivity, this suggests that SO4 may control the positioning of the NO3 accumulations. It was concluded that the NO3 accumulations were relatively stable under current management practices, although the reduction in NO3 inputs would likely see the gradual replacement of NO3 with Cl as a result of their comparable selectivity for exchange sites.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimen- sioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation that improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.