Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods.

The public's knowledge of and support for conservation of Australia's tree-kangaroos and other animals

After providing background on Dendrolagus species in Australia, two consecutive surveys of Brisbane's residents are used to assess public knowledge of tree-kangaroos and the stated degree of support for their conservation in Australia. The responses of participants in Survey I are based on their pre-survey knowledge of wildlife. The same set of participants completed Survey II after being provided with additional information on all the wildlife species mentioned in Survey I. Changes in the attitudes of respondents and their degree of support for the protection and conservation of Australia's tree-kangaroos are measured, including changes in their contingent valuations and stated willingness to provide financial support for such conservation. Reasons for wanting to protect tree-kangaroos are specified and analysed. Furthermore, changes that occur in the relative importance of these reasons with increased knowledge are also examined. Support for the conservation of tree-kangaroos is found to rise with the additional knowledge supplied about all species and is compared with variations in support for protection of other mammals. Support for the conservation of Australia's less well known tropical mammals is found to increase relative to better known mammals (icons) present in temperate areas, such as koalas and red kangaroos. Possible implications of the results for government conservation policies in Australia are examined.

Beauty and the market: Actress postcards and their senders in early twentieth century Australia

A hundred years ago the international craze for picture postcards distributed millions of images of popular stage actresses around the world. The cards were bought, sent, and collected by many whose contact with live theatre was sometimes minimal. Veronica Kelly's study of some of these cards sent in Australia indicates the increasing reach of theatrical images and celebrity brought about by the distribution mechanisms of industrial mass modernity. The specific social purposes and contexts of the senders are revealed by cross-reading the images themselves with the private messages on the backs, suggesting that, once outside the industrial framing of theatre or the dramatic one of specific roles, the actress operated as a multiply signifying icon within mass culture – with the desires and consumer power of women major factors in the consumption of the glamour actress card. A study of the typical visual rhetoric of these postcards indicates the authorized modes of femininity being constructed by the major postcard publishers whose products were distributed to theatre fans and non-theatregoers alike through the post. Veronica Kelly is working on a project dealing with commercial managements and stars in early twentieth-century Australian theatre. She teaches in the School of English, Media Studies, and Art History at the University of Queensland, is co-editor of Australasian Drama Studies, and author of databases and articles dealing with colonial and contemporary Australian theatre history and dramatic criticism. Her books include The Theatre of Louis Nowra (1998) and the collection Our Australian Theatre in the 1990s (1998).

Genetic diversity among community methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus strains causing outpatient infections in Australia

Increasing reports of the appearance of novel nonmultiresistant methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus MRSA (MRSA) strains in the community and of the spread of hospital MRSA strains into the community are cause for public health concern. We conducted two national surveys of unique isolates of S. aureus from clinical specimens collected from nonhospitalized patients commencing in 2000 and 2002, respectively. A total of 11.7% of 2,498 isolates from 2000 and 15.4% of 2,486 isolates from 2002 were MRSA. Approximately 54% of the MRSA isolates were nonmultiresistant (resistant to less than three of nine antibiotics) in both surveys. The majority of multiresistant MRSA isolates in both surveys belonged to two strains (strains AUS-2 and AUS-3), as determined by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and resistogram typing. The 3 AUS-2 isolates and 10 of the 11 AUS-3 isolates selected for multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and staphylococcal chromosomal cassette mec (SCCmec) analysis were ST239-MRSA-III (where ST is the sequence type) and thus belonged to the same clone as the eastern Australian MRSA strain of the 1980s, which spread internationally. Four predominant clones of novel nonmultiresistant MRSA were identified by PFGE, MLST, and SCCmec analysis: ST22-MRSA-IV (strain EMRSA-15), ST1-MRSA-IV (strain WA-1), ST30-MRSA-IV (strain SWP), and ST93-MRSA-IV (strain Queensland). The last three clones are associated with community acquisition. A total of 14 STs were identified in the surveys, including six unique clones of novel nonmultiresistant MRSA, namely, STs 73, 93, 129, 75, and 80sIv and a new ST. SCCmec types IV and V were present in diverse genetic backgrounds. These findings provide support for the acquisition of SCCmec by multiple lineages of S. aureus. They also confirm that both hospital and community strains of MRSA are now common in nonhospitalized patients throughout Australia.

Diabetes mellitus and serum carotenoids: findings of a population-based study in Queensland, Australia

Background: Epidemiologic evidence suggests that serum carotenoids are potent antioxidants and may play a protective role in the development of chronic diseases including cancers, cardiovascular disease, and inflammatory diseases. The role of these antioxidants in the pathogenesis of diabetes mellitus remains unclear. Objective: This study examined data from a cross-sectional survey to investigate the association between serum carotenoids and type 2 diabetes. Design: Study participants were adults aged >= 25 y (n = 1597) from 6 randomly selected cities and towns in Queensland, Australia. Study examinations conducted between October and December 2000 included fasting plasma glucose, an oral-glucose-tolerance test, and measurement of the serum concentrations of 5 carotenoid compounds. Results: Mean 2-h postload plasma glucose and fasting insulin concentrations decreased significantly with increasing quintiles of the 5 serum carotenoids-alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein/zeaxanthin, and lycopene. Geometric mean concentrations for all serum carotenoids decreased (all decreases were significant except that of lycopene) with declining glucose tolerance status. beta-Carotene had the greatest decrease, to geometric means of 0.59, 0.50, and 0.42 mu mol/L in persons with normal glucose tolerance, impaired glucose metabolism, and type 2 diabetes, respectively (P < 0.01 for linear trend), after control for potential confounders. Conclusions: Serum carotenoids are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes and impaired glucose metabolism. Randomized trials of diets high in carotenoid-rich vegetables and fruit are needed to confirm these results and those from other observational studies. Such evidence would have very important implications for the prevention of diabetes.

Phylogeography of the scarab beetle Antitrogus parvulus Britton (Coleoptera : Scarabaeidae) in south-eastern Queensland, Australia

This study surveys the population genetic structure of Childers canegrub, Antitrogus parvulus, to elucidate its population dynamics and gene flow. Antitrogus parvulus is a pest of sugarcane in the Bundaberg region and this knowledge can be used to optimise integrated pest management practices. Here, base-pair differences in the cytochrome oxidase II gene (COII) were used to characterise haplotypic diversity, infer levels of gene flow, and phylogenetic relationships of alleles and their phylogeographical structure. There were 28 unique haplotypes among the 70 sequenced individuals from the seven locations. All three variance components (among regions, among populations, within populations) are highly significant, with highest genetic diversity among regions and lowest among populations within regions. A positive correlation between migration rates and geographical distance and significant phylogeographical structure between four main geographical regions. The main implication of these findings for pest management is that if a grower can eliminate an existing infestation within a field, then reinvasion will be slow and further outbreaks within that field are unlikely to occur. The low dispersal ability of females also means that any resistance to insecticides that develops is likely to remain localised, but will rapidly become dominant within the affected population.

Effect of Australia's walk to work day campaign on adults' active commuting and physical activity behavior

Purpose. To determine whether Australia's Walk to Work Day media campaign resulted in behavioural change among targeted groups. Methods. Pre- and postcampaign telephone surveys of a cohort of adults aged 18 to 65 years (n = 1100, 55% response rate) were randomly sampled from Australian major melropolitan areas. Tests for dependent samples were applied (McNemax chi(2) or paired t-test). Results. Among participants who did not usually actively commute to work was a significant decrease in car only use an increase in walking combined with public transport. Among those who were employed was a significant increase in total time walking (+16 min/wk; t [780] = 2.04, p < .05) and in other moderate physical activity (+120 min/wk; t [1087] = 4.76, p < .005), resulting in a significant decrease in the proportion who were inactive (chi(2) (1) = 6.1, p < .05). Conclusion. Although nonexperimental, the Walk to Work Day initiative elicited short-term changes in targeted behaviors among target groups. Reinforcement by integrating worksite health promotion strategies may be required for sustained effects.

Diversity in the sunflower: Puccinia helianthi pathosystem in Australia

Sunflower rust caused by Puccinia helianthi is the most important disease of sunflower in Australia with the potential to cause significant yield losses in susceptible hybrids. Rapid and frequent virulence changes in the rust fungus population limit the effective lifespan of commercial cultivars and impose constant pressure on breeding programs to identify and deploy new sources of resistance. This paper contains a synopsis of virulence data accumulated over 25 years, and more recent studies of genotypic diversity and sexual recombination. We have used this synopsis, generated from both published and unpublished data, to propose the origin, evolution and distribution of new pathotypes of P. helianthi. Virulence surveys revealed that diverse pathotypes of P. helianthi evolve in wild sunflower populations, most likely because sexual recombination and subsequent selection of recombinant pathotypes occurs there. Wild sunflower populations provide a continuum of genetically heterogeneous hosts on which P. helianthi can potentially complete its sexual cycle under suitable environmental conditions. Population genetics analysis of a worldwide collection of P. helianthi indicated that Australian isolates of the pathogen are more diverse than non-Australian isolates. Additionally, the presence of the same pathotype in different genotypic backgrounds supported evidence from virulence data that sexual recombination has occurred in the Australian population of P. helianthi at some time. A primary aim of the work described was to apply our knowledge of pathotype evolution to improve resistance in sunflower to sunflower rust. Molecular markers were identified for a number of previously uncharacterised sunflower rust R-genes. These markers have been used to detect resistance genes in breeding lines and wild sunflower germplasm. A number of virulence loci that do not recombine were identified in P. helianthi. The resistance gene combinations corresponding to these virulence loci are currently being introgressed with breeding lines to generate hybrids with durable resistance to sunflower rust.

Estimating the abundance of eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia

To provide an estimate of kangaroo numbers for harvest management, a survey was designed for an area of 29500 km(2) encompassing the agricultural and grazing lands of the Braidwood, Cooma, Goulburn, Gundagai and Yass Rural Lands Protection Board (RLPB) districts in south-east New South Wales. An aerial survey using a helicopter was considered more efficient than ground survey because of the size of the area, relatively high relief and dense tree cover, and the need for regular monitoring. Tree cover and landscape relief was used to stratify the five RLPB districts into areas of probable high, medium and low kangaroo density. Kangaroo density estimated from helicopter surveys conducted in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales was used to suggest densities and thereby allocate survey effort in each stratum. A survey comprising 735 km of transect line was conducted in winter 2003 with a target precision of 20%. The survey returned an estimate of 286600 32300 eastern grey kangaroos for the whole of the proposed south-east New South Wales kangaroo-management zone. In 2004, a trial harvest of slightly less than 15% of this estimate was taken. Success of the trial will be determined by the impact of harvesting on the population's dynamics, by landholder and industry participation, and by the capacity to monitor population size, harvest offtake and compliance with regulations.

Prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behavior among regular ecstasy users in Australia

Background: The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of injecting drug use and associated risk behaviour among a sentinel sample of ecstasy users. Methods: Cross-sectional surveys were conducted with regular ecstasy users as part of an annual monitoring study of ecstasy and related drug markets in all Australian capital cities. Results: Twenty-three percent of the sample reported having ever injected a drug and 15% reported injecting in the 6 months preceding interview. Independent predictors of lifetime injection were older age, unemployment and having ever been in prison. Completion of secondary school and identifying as heterosexual was associated with a lower likelihood of having ever injected. Participants who had recently injected typically did so infrequently; only 9% reported daily injecting. Methamphetamine was the most commonly injected drug. Prevalence of needle sharing was low (6%), although half (47%) reported sharing other injecting equipment in the preceding 6 months. Conclusions: Ecstasy users who report having injected a drug at some time appear to be demographically different to ecstasy users who have not injected although neither are they typical of other drug injectors. The current investigation suggests that ongoing monitoring of injecting among regular ecstasy users is warranted. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent developments on a nearshore, terrigenous-influenced reef: Low Isles Reef, Australia

Low Isles Reef is the most southerly located of 46 coral reef platforms unique to the inner shelf of the northern Great Barrier Reef Province, Australia, which support both sea grass and mangrove growth. Such reefs develop in areas that are influenced by river flood plumes and where interreef sediments are dominated by terrigenous mud. Low Isles Reef has long been a popular tourist destination. Informal reports of decreasing visibility, a decline in scleractinian corals, and increases in soft coral and macroalgae have sparked speculation that agricultural activities in coastal catchments are affecting the reef. Comparison of the modern surface of Low Isles Reef with historical surveys and photographs dating back to 1928 allows quantification of modern sedimentary processes, rates of change, and factors influencing reef development. Results indicate that changes on Low Isles Reef are related to remobilization of coarse sediment during storm events and gradual shoreline retreat associated with rising sea level. Retreat of shingle ramparts and elongate ridges of coral debris toward the reef interior has led to the infilling of subtidal ponds on the reef top, which supported hard coral colonies in 1928. The gradual development of a composite shingle rampart along the windward margin has promoted an increase (;150%) in the area of the reef top covered by mangroves. On the leeward margin, a decrease in hard corals since 1950 may reflect a rising contribution of organic debris from the expanding mangrove swamp. Results suggest that recent changes on Low Isles Reef can be explained in the context of natural processes. Further study is needed before the effects of agricultural activities in coastal catchments on reef health can be confirmed.

Trends in morphine prescriptions, illicit morphine use and associated harms among regular injecting drug users in Australia

This paper examines population trends in morphine prescriptions in Australia, and contrasts them with findings from annual surveys with regular injecting drug users (IDU). Data on morphine prescriptions from 1995 to 2003 were obtained from the Drug Monitoring System (DRUMS) run by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing. Data collected from regular IDU as part of the Australian Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) were analysed (2001-2004). The rate of morphine prescription per person aged 15-54 years increased by 89% across Australia between 1995 and 2003 (from 46.3 to 85.9 mg per person). Almost half (46%) of IDU surveyed in 2004 reported illicit morphine use, with the highest rates in jurisdictions where heroin was less available. Recent morphine injectors were significantly more likely to be male, unemployed, out of treatment and homeless in comparison to IDU who had not injected morphine. They were also more likely to have injected other pharmaceutical drugs and to report injection related problems. Among those who had injected morphine recently, the most commonly reported injecting harms were morphine dependence (38%), difficulty finding veins into which to inject (36%) and scarring or bruising (27%). Morphine use and injection is a common practice among regular IDU in Australia. In some cases, morphine may be a substitute for illicit heroin; in others, it may be being used to treat heroin dependence where other pharmacotherapies, such as methadone and buprenorphine, are perceived as being unavailable or undesirable by IDU. Morphine injection appears to be associated with polydrug use, and with it, a range of problems related to drug injection. Further research is required to monitor and reduce morphine diversion and related harms by such polydrug injectors.

Belief in dealing with depression alone: Results from community surveys of adolescents and adults

Background: Community surveys have found that some people believe that it is better to deal with depression alone rather than seek help. However, there has been little research into the characteristics of this group. Methods: Data were drawn from three Australian surveys: (1) a national survey of 1001 adults aged 18+ years; (2) a school survey of 552 students aged 14-16 years from two regions; (3) a survey of 577 young people aged 12-17 years from the Melbourne region. In all three surveys, participants who believed it would be helpful to deal with depression alone were contrasted with those who believed it would be harmful in terms of sociodemographic characteristics, recognition of depression in a vignette, contact with people who experienced depression, beliefs about treatments, beliefs about using substances, beliefs about long-term outcomes, and beliefs about causes. Results: In both adolescents and adults, belief in dealing with depression alone was associated with male gender, less favourable views about mental health professionals, more favourable views about using substances to deal with depression, and a more positive expectation about the outcome if treatment is not sought. Adolescents believing in dealing with depression alone had more favourable views about some potential helpers, such as church workers and pharmacists. In adults, but not adolescents, there was an association with the belief that depression is caused by personal weakness. Limitations: The surveys did not directly ask about reasons for believing that dealing with depression alone would be helpful and did not assess actual help-seeking. Conclusions: Factors encouraging dealing with depression alone are a belief that it is a self-limiting disorder, that substances are an effective way to deal with it and, in adults, that depression is due to personal weakness. Consistent with previous research, males are an important target group for encouraging seeking help to deal with depression. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Socioeconomic disadvantage and changes in health risk behaviours in Australia: 1989-90 to 2001

Objective. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) is associated in industrialized countries with unhealthy lifestyle characteristics, such as smoking, physical inactivity and being overweight or obese. This paper examines changes over time in the association between SES and smoking status, physical activity and being overweight or obese in Australia. Methods. Data were taken from three successive national health surveys in Australia carried out in 1989-90 (n = 54 576), 1995 (n = 53 828) and 2001 (n = 26 863). Participants in these surveys were selected using a national probability sampling strategy, and aggregated data for geographical areas are used to determine the changing association between SES and lifestyle over time. Findings. Overall, men had less healthy lifestyles, In 2001 inverse SES trends for both men and women showed that those living in lower SES areas were more likely to smoke and to be sedentary and obese, There were some important socioeconomic changes over the period 1989-90 to 2001. The least socioeconomically disadvantaged areas had the largest decrease in the percentage of people smoking tobacco (24% decrease for men and 12% for women) and the largest decrease in the percentage of people reporting sedentary activity levels (25% decrease for men and 22% for women). While there has been a general increase in the percentage over time of those who are overweight or obese, there is a modest trend for being overweight to have increased (by about 16% only among females) among those living in areas of higher SES. Conclusion. Socioeconomic inequalities have been increasing for several key risk behaviours related to health; this suggests that T specific population-based prevention strategies intended to reduce health inequalities are needed.