Solicitors disciplinary hearings in Queensland 1930-2000: a statistical analysis

This article reports on the results of a study undertaken by the author together with her research assistant, Heather Green. The study collected and analysed data from all disciplinary tribunal decisions heard in Queensland since 1930 in an attempt to provide empirical information which has previously been lacking. This article will outline the main features of the disciplinary system in Queensland, describe the research methodology used in the present study and then report on some findings from the study. Reported findings include a profile of solicitors who have appeared before a disciplinary hearing, the types of matters which have attracted formal discipline and the types of orders made by the tribunal. Much of the data is then presented on a time scale so as to reveal any changes over time.

The application of statistical process control charts to the detection and monitoring of hospital-acquired infections

The monitoring of infection control indicators including hospital-acquired infections is an established part of quality maintenance programmes in many health-care facilities. However, surveillance data use can be frustrated by the infrequent nature of many infections. Traditional methods of analysis often provide delayed identification of increasing infection occurrence, placing patients at preventable risk. The application of Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) statistical process control charts to the monitoring of indicator infections allows continuous real-time assessment. The Shewhart chart will detect large changes, while CUSUM and EWMA methods are more suited to recognition of small to moderate sustained change. When used together, Shewhart and EWMA methods are ideal for monitoring bacteraemia and multiresistant organism rates. Shewhart and CUSUM charts are suitable for surgical infection surveillance.

Calculation of resonances and product state distributions for the unimolecular dissociation of H2S

Resonance phenomena associated with the unimolecular dissociation of H2S --> SH + H have been investigated quantum mechanically by the Lanczos homogeneous filter diagonalization method using a newly developed potential energy surface (J. Chem. Phys. 2001, 114, 320). Resonance energies, widths (rates), and product state distributions have been obtained. Both dissociation rates and product state distributions of SH show, strong fluctuations, indicating that the dissociation of H2S is essentially irregular. Statistical analysis of neighboring level spacing and width distributions also confirms this behavior. The dissociation rates and product state distributions are compared to the predictions of quantum phase space theory.

Close packed transitions in slit-shaped pores: Density functional theory study of methane adsorption capacity in carbon

An important feature of improving lattice gas models and classical isotherms is the incorporation of a pore size dependent capacity, which has hitherto been overlooked. In this paper, we develop a model for predicting the temperature dependent variation in capacity with pore size. The model is based on the analysis of a lattice gas model using a density functional theory approach at the close packed limit. Fluid-fluid and solid-fluid interactions are modeled by the Lennard-Jones 12-6 potential and Steele's 10-4-3, potential respectively. The capacity of methane in a slit-shaped carbon pore is calculated from the characteristic parameters of the unit cell, which are extracted by minimizing the grand potential of the unit cell. The capacities predicted by the proposed model are in good agreement with those obtained from grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation, for pores that can accommodate up to three adsorbed layers. Single particle and pair distributions exhibit characteristic features that correspond to the sequence of buckling and rhombic transitions that occur as the slit pore width is increased. The model provides a useful tool to model continuous variation in the microstructure of an adsorbed phase, namely buckling and rhombic transitions, with increasing pore width. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Effect of changing data collection parameters on statistical motor unit number estimates

The effect of number of samples and selection of data for analysis on the calculation of surface motor unit potential (SMUP) size in the statistical method of motor unit number estimates (MUNE) was determined in 10 normal subjects and 10 with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We recorded 500 sequential compound muscle action potentials (CMAPs) at three different stable stimulus intensities (10–50% of maximal CMAP). Estimated mean SMUP sizes were calculated using Poisson statistical assumptions from the variance of 500 sequential CMAP obtained at each stimulus intensity. The results with the 500 data points were compared with smaller subsets from the same data set. The results using a range of 50–80% of the 500 data points were compared with the full 500. The effect of restricting analysis to data between 5–20% of the CMAP and to standard deviation limits was also assessed. No differences in mean SMUP size were found with stimulus intensity or use of different ranges of data. Consistency was improved with a greater sample number. Data within 5% of CMAP size gave both increased consistency and reduced mean SMUP size in many subjects, but excluded valid responses present at that stimulus intensity. These changes were more prominent in ALS patients in whom the presence of isolated SMUP responses was a striking difference from normal subjects. Noise, spurious data, and large SMUP limited the Poisson assumptions. When these factors are considered, consistent statistical MUNE can be calculated from a continuous sequence of data points. A 2 to 2.5 SD or 10% window are reasonable methods of limiting data for analysis. Muscle Nerve 27: 320–331, 2003

Calculation of bound and resonance states of HO2 for nonzero total angular momentum

Bound and resonance states of HO2 have been calculated quantum mechanically by the Lanczos homogeneous filter diagonalization method [Zhang and Smith, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 3, 2282 (2001); J. Chem. Phys. 115, 5751 (2001)] for nonzero total angular momentum J = 1,2,3. For lower bound states, agreement between the results in this paper and previous work is quite satisfactory; while for high lying bound states and resonances these are the first reported results. A helicity quantum number V assignment (within the helicity conserving approximation) is performed and the results indicate that for lower bound states it is possible to assign the V quantum numbers unambiguously, but for resonances it is impossible to assign the V helicity quantum numbers due to strong mixing. In fact, for the high-lying bound states, the mixing has already appeared. These results indicate that the helicity conserving approximation is not good for the resonance state calculations and exact quantum calculations are needed to accurately describe the reaction dynamics for HO2 system. Analysis of the resonance widths shows that most of the resonances are overlapping and the interferences between them lead to large fluctuations from one resonance to another. In accord with the conclusions from earlier J = 0 calculations, this indicates that the dissociation of HO2 is essentially irregular. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.