Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Application of spatial analysis techniques to adjust for fertility trends and identify interplot competition in early stage sugarcane selection trials

Most sugarcane breeding programs in Australia use large unreplicated trials to evaluate clones in the early stages of selection. Commercial varieties that are replicated provide a method of local control of soil fertility. Although such methods may be useful in detecting broad trends in the field, variation often occurs on a much smaller scale. Methods such as spatial analysis adjust a plot for variability by using information from immediate neighbours. These techniques are routinely used to analyse cereal data in Australia and have resulted in increased accuracy and precision in the estimates of variety effects. In this paper, spatial analyses in which the variability is decomposed into local, natural, and extraneous components are applied to early selection trials in sugarcane. Interplot competition in cane yield and trend in sugar content were substantial in many of the trials and there were often large differences in the selections between the spatial and current method used by the Bureau of Sugar Experiment Stations. A joint modelling approach for tonnes sugar per hectare in response to fertility trends and interplot competition is recommended.

The impact of positive peritoneal washings and serosal and adnexal involvement on survival in patients with stage IIIA uterine cancer

Objective. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic significance of serosal involvement (SER), adnexal involvement (ADN), and positive peritoneal washings (PPW) in patients with Stage IIIA uterine cancer. We also sought to determine patterns of recurrence in patients with this disease. Methods. The records of 136 patients with Stage IIIA uterine cancer treated at the Queensland Centre for Gynecological Cancer between March 1983 and August 2001 were reviewed. One hundred thirty-six patients underwent surgery and 58 (42.6%) had full surgical staging. Seventy-five patients (55.2%) had external beam radiotherapy and/or brachytherapy postoperatively. Overall survival was the primary statistical endpoint. Statistical analysis included univariate and multivariate Cox models. Results. Forty-six patients (33.8%) had adnexal involvement, 23 (16.9%) had serosal involvement, and 40 (29.4%) had positive peritoneal washings. Median follow-up was 55.1 months (95% confidence interval, 36.9 to 73.4 months) after which time 71 patients (52.2%) remained alive. For patients with endometrioid adenocarcinoma, ADN and SER were associated with impaired survival on multivariate analysis (odds ratio 2.8 and 3.2, respectively). In the subgroup of patients with high-risk tumors (including papillary serous carcinomas, clear cell carcinomas, and uterine sarcomas), neither ADN, nor SER, nor PPW influenced survival. Conclusion. Patients with Stage IIIA uterine cancer constitute a heterogeneous group. For patients with endometrioid adenocarcinoma, both ADN and SER, but not PPW, were associated with impaired prognosis. For patients with high-risk histological types, prognosis is poor for all three factors. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

A four-stage index 2 Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta method

High index Differential Algebraic Equations (DAEs) force standard numerical methods to lower order. Implicit Runge-Kutta methods such as RADAU5 handle high index problems but their fully implicit structure creates significant overhead costs for large problems. Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta (SDIRK) methods offer lower costs for integration. This paper derives a four-stage, index 2 Explicit Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta (ESDIRK) method. By introducing an explicit first stage, the method achieves second order stage calculations. After deriving and solving appropriate order conditions., numerical examples are used to test the proposed method using fixed and variable step size implementations. (C) 2001 IMACS. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Immunity to asexual blood stage malaria and vaccine approaches

The development of a malaria vaccine seems to be a definite possibility despite the fact that even individuals with a life time of endemic exposure do not develop sterile immunity. An effective malaria vaccine would be invaluable in preventing malaria-associated deaths in endemic areas, especially amongst children less than 5 years of age and pregnant women. This review discusses our current understanding of immunity against the asexual blood stage of malaria - the stage that is responsible for the symptoms of the disease - and approaches to the design of an asexual blood stage vaccine.

Identification of T cell epitopes on the 33-kDa fragment of Plasmodium yoelii merozoite surface protein 1 and their antibody-independent protective role in immunity to blood stage malarial

Merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP1) of malaria parasites undergoes proteolytic processing at least twice before invasion into a new RBC. The 42-kDa fragment, a product of primary processing, is cleaved by proteolytic enzymes giving rise to MSP1(33), which is shed from the merozoite surface, and MSP1(19), which is the only fragment carried into a new RBC. In this study, we have identified T cell epitopes on MSP1(33) of Plasmodium yoelii and have examined their function in immunity to blood stage malaria. Peptides 20 aa in length, spanning the length of MSP1(33) and overlapping each other by 10 aa, were analyzed for their ability to induce T cell proliferation in immunized BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice. Multiple epitopes were recognized by these two strains of mice. Effector functions of the dominant epitopes were then investigated. Peptides Cm15 and Cm21 were of particular interest as they were able to induce effector T cells capable of delaying growth of lethal P. yoelii YM following adoptive transfer into immuno-deficient mice without inducing detectable Ab responses. Homologs of these epitopes could be candidates for inclusion in a subunit vaccine.

Left ventricular dyssynchrony predicts benefit of cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with end-stage heart failure before pacemaker implantation

We evaluated patients with end-stage heart failure who have a high likelihood of response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (biventricular pacing). It appears that 20% of patients do not respond to this expensive therapy despite the use of selection criteria (dilated cardiomyopathy, heart failure, New York Heart Association class II or IV, left ventricular election fraction 120 ms). The presence of left ventricular dys-synchrony is needed to result in improvement after cardiac resynchronization therapy. (C)2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Reliability of moderate-intensity and vigorous physical activity stage of change measures for young adults

Background. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of stage of change (SOC) measures for moderate-intensity and vigorous physical activity in two separate samples of young adults. Staging measures have focused on vigorous exercise, but current public health guidelines emphasize moderate-intensity activity. Method. For college students in the USA (n = 105) and in Australia (n = 123), SOC was assessed separately on two occasions for moderate-intensity activity and for vigorous activity. Test-retest repeatability was determined, using Cohen's kappa coefficient. Results. In both samples, the reliability scores for the moderate-intensity physical activity staging measure were lower than the scores for the vigorous exercise staging measure. Weighted kappa values for the moderate-intensity staging measure were in the fair to good range for both studies (0.50 and 0.45); for the vigorous staging measure kappa values were excellent and fair to good (0.76 and 0.72). Conclusions. There is a need to standardize and improve methods for staging moderate-intensity activity, given that such measures are used in public health interventions targeting HEPA (health-enhancing physical activity). (C) 2003 American Health Foundation and Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.