Mechanisms of drought-induced population decline in an endangered wallaby

The bridled nailtail wallaby is restricted to one locality in central Queensland, Australia. The population declined severely during a major drought between 1991 and 1995. We investigated age-specific covariates of survival and proximate causes of mortality from 1994 to 1997, using mark-recapture and radio-tagging techniques at two study sites. Using a matrix population model, we also modelled the effect of drought on age-specific survival and the intrinsic rate of population increase,;,. The only significant covariate of survival for adults was a measure of health unrelated to drought. Rainfall, food, predator activity, year, sex and habitat were not associated with variation in adult survival. Juvenile survival was negatively affected by drought, and predation was the proximate cause of most juvenile deaths. The matrix projection model showed that the observed juvenile survivorship during the drought was low enough to have produced a population decline, although fecundity and survival of other age classes was high throughout the study. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mark-recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.

Destructive periodontitis lesions are determined by the nature of the lymphocytic response

It is now 35 years since Brandtzaeg and Kraus (1965) published their seminal work entitled Autoimmunity and periodontal disease. Initially, this work led to the concept that destructive periodontitis was a localized hypersensitivity reaction involving immune complex formation within the tissues. In 1970, Ivanyi and Lehner highlighted a possible role for cell-mediated immunity, which stimulated a flurry of activity centered on the role of lymphokines such as osteoclast-activating factor (OAF), macrophage-activating factor (MAF), macrophage migration inhibition factor (MIF), and myriad others. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, attention focused on the role of polymorphonuclear neutrophils, and it was thought that periodontal destruction occurred as a series of acute exacerbations. As well, at this stage doubt was being cast on the concept that there was a neutrophil chemotactic defect in periodontitis patients. Once it was realized that neutrophils were primarily protective and that severe periodontal destruction occurred in the absence of these cells, attention swung back to the role of lymphocytes and in particular the regulatory role of T-cells. By this time in the early 1990s, while the roles of interleukin (IL)-1, prostaglandin (PG) E-2, and metalloproteinases as the destructive mediators in periodontal disease were largely understood, the control and regulation of these cytokines remained controversial. With the widespread acceptance of the Th1/Th2 paradigm, the regulatory role of T-cells became the main focus of attention, Two apparently conflicting theories have emerged. One is based on direct observations of human lesions, while the other is based on animal model experiments and the inability to demonstrate IL-4 mRNA in gingival extracts. As part of the Controversy series, this review is intended to stimulate debate and hence may appear in some places provocative. In this context, this review will present the case that destructive periodontitis is due to the nature of the lymphocytic infiltrate and is not due to periodic acute exacerbations, nor is it due to the so-called virulence factors of putative periodontal pathogens.

Atom lasers, coherent states, and coherence. I. Physically realizable ensembles of pure states

A laser, be it an optical laser or an atom laser, is an open quantum system that produces a coherent beam of bosons (photons or atoms, respectively). Far above threshold, the stationary state rho(ss) of the laser mode is a mixture of coherent-field states with random phase, or, equivalently, a Poissonian mixture of number states. This paper answers the question: can descriptions such as these, of rho(ss) as a stationary ensemble of pure states, be physically realized? Here physical realization is as defined previously by us [H. M. Wiseman and J. A. Vaccaro, Phys. Lett. A 250, 241 (1998)]: an ensemble of pure states for a particular system can be physically realized if, without changing the dynamics of the system, an experimenter can (in principle) know at any time that the system is in one of the pure-state members of the ensemble. Such knowledge can be obtained by monitoring the baths to which the system is coupled, provided that coupling is describable by a Markovian master equation. Using a family of master equations for the (atom) laser, we solve for the physically realizable (PR) ensembles. We find that for any finite self-energy chi of the bosons in the laser mode, the coherent-state ensemble is not PR; the closest one can come to it is an ensemble of squeezed states. This is particularly relevant for atom lasers, where the self-energy arising from elastic collisions is expected to be large. By contrast, the number-state ensemble is always PR. As the self-energy chi increases, the states in the PR ensemble closest to the coherent-state ensemble become increasingly squeezed. Nevertheless, there are values of chi for which states with well-defined coherent amplitudes are PR, even though the atom laser is not coherent (in the sense of having a Bose-degenerate output). We discuss the physical significance of this anomaly in terms of conditional coherence (and hence conditional Bose degeneracy).

Reproductive biology of the eastern shovelnose ray, Aptychotrema rostrata (Shaw & Nodder, 1794), from Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia

The eastern shovelnose ray, Aptychotrema rostrata (Rhinobatidae), is an endemic batoid common to the east coast of Australia. The reproductive cycle was studied in Moreton Bay, south-eastern Queensland, over a 14-month period. Aptychotrema rostrata is an aplacental yolksac viviparous species with an annual, seasonal reproductive cycle in Moreton Bay. Females mature at 54-66 cm total length, and males at 60-68 cm total length. Gravid females were observed during September-November and parturition occurred in November-December. Vitellogenesis does not proceed in parallel with gestation. Ovulation and copulation probably occur during July-September, resulting in a gestational period of 3-5 months. Uterine fecundity ranges from 4 to 18, with a significant positive relationship between uterine fecundity and maternal body length. In mature males, a peak in the proportion of mature spermatocysts in the testes was observed in July, whereas gonadosomatic index peaked in April.

Tillering in grain sorghum over a wide range of population densities: Modelling dynamics of tiller fertility

The prediction of tillering is poor or absent in existing sorghum crop models even though fertile tillers contribute significantly to grain yield. The objective of this study was to identify general quantitative relationships underpinning tiller dynamics of sorghum for a broad range of assimilate availabilities. Emergence, phenology, leaf area development and fertility of individual main calms and tillers were quantified weekly in plants grown at one of four plant densities ranging from two to 16 plants m(-2). On any given day, a tiller was considered potentially fertile (a posteriori) if its number of leaves continued to increase thereafter. The dynamics of potentially fertile tiller number per plant varied greatly with plant density, but could generally be described by three determinants, stable across plant densities: tiller emergence rate aligned with leaf ligule appearance rate; cessation of tiller emergence occurred at a stable leaf area index; and rate of decrease in potentially fertile tillers was linearly related to the ratio of realized to potential leaf area growth. Realized leaf area growth is the measured increase in leaf area, whereas potential leaf area growth is the estimated increase in leaf area if all potentially fertile tillers were to continue to develop. Procedures to predict this ratio, by estimating realized leaf area per plant from intercepted radiation and potential leaf area per plant from the number and type of developing axes, are presented. While it is suitable for modelling tiller dynamics in grain sorghum, this general framework needs to be validated by testing it in different environments and for other cultivars. (C) 2002 Annals of Botany Company.

Mathematical modelling of schistosomiasis japonica: comparison of control strategies in the People's Republic of China

We present the first mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of Schistosoma japonicum. The work extends Barbour's classic model of schistosome transmission. It allows for the mammalian host heterogeneity characteristic of the S. japonicum life cycle, and solves the problem of under-specification of Barbour's model by the use of Chinese data we are collecting on human-bovine transmission in the Poyang Lake area of Jiangxi Province in China. The model predicts that in the lake/marshland areas of the Yangtze River basin: (1) once-early mass chemotherapy of humans is little better than twice-yearly mass chemotherapy in reducing human prevalence. Depending on the heterogeneity of prevalence within the population, targeted treatment of high prevalence groups, with lower overall coverage, can be more effective than mass treatment with higher overall coverage. Treatment confers a short term benefit only, with prevalence rising to endemic levels once chemotherapy programs are stopped (2) depending on the relative contributions of bovines and humans, bovine treatment can benefit humans almost as much as human treatment. Like human treatment, bovine treatment confers a short-term benefit. A combination of human and bovine treatment will dramatically reduce human prevalence and maintains the reduction for a longer period of time than treatment of a single host, although human prevalence rises once treatment ceases; (3) assuming 75% coverage of bovines, a bovine vaccine which acts on worm fecundity must have about 75% efficacy to reduce the reproduction rate below one and ensure mid-term reduction and long-term elimination of the parasite. Such a vaccination program should be accompanied by an initial period of human treatment to instigate a short-term reduction in prevalence, following which the reduction is enhanced by vaccine effects; (4) if the bovine vaccine is only 45% efficacious (the level of current prototype vaccines) it will lower the endemic prevalence, but will not result in elimination. If it is accompanied by an initial period of human treatment and by a 45% improvement in human sanitation or a 30% reduction in contaminated water contact by humans, elimination is then possible. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Species richness in agamid lizards: chance, body size, sexual selection or ecology?

Why does species richness vary so greatly across lineages? Traditionally, variation in species richness has been attributed to deterministic processes, although it is equally plausible that it may result from purely stochastic processes. We show that, based on the best available phylogenetic hypothesis, the pattern of cladogenesis among agamid lizards is not consistent with a random model, with some lineages having more species, and others fewer species, than expected by chance. We then use phylogenetic comparative methods to test six types of deterministic explanation for variation in species richness: body size, life history, sexual selection, ecological generalism, range size and latitude. Of eight variables we tested, only sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism predicted species richness. Increases in species richness are associated with increases in sexual dichromatism but reductions in sexual size dimorphism. Consistent with recent comparative studies, we find no evidence that species richness is associated with small body size or high fecundity. Equally, we find no evidence that species richness covaries with ecological generalism, latitude or range size.

Control of familial and renal cardiac diseases in English bull terriers: How to repair a damaged breed?

Control recommendations are presented for four genetic or familial diseases that cause significant morbidity and mortality in affected English Bull Terriers. Bull Terrier polycystic kidney disease is an autosomal dominant disease diagnosed by detecting a minimum of three renal cysts, with cysts present in both kidneys, and similarly affected family members to confirm the inherited nature of the cysts. Bull Terrier hereditary nephritis is an autosomal dominant disease diagnosed in otherwise normal animals with urinary protein: creatinine ratios persistently >0.3 and no significant urinary sediment, a family history of the disease, and characteristic glomerular basement membrane lesions. Mitral valve myxomatous degeneration and left ventricular outflow tract obstruction in Bull Terriers are familial diseases diagnosed by auscultating characteristic murmurs in affected animals. Excluding animals with these clinical signs from the breeding pool will reduce the prevalence rates of these diseases, however maintenance of an effective population size is also important. Providing breeders with information on genetics, including the risks associated with inbreeding and the benefits of outcrossing, is likely to improve canine breeding practices, thus increasing fitness and fecundity of these purebred dogs.