Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Mixture Densities for Binned and Truncated Multivariate Data

Binning and truncation of data are common in data analysis and machine learning. This paper addresses the problem of fitting mixture densities to multivariate binned and truncated data. The EM approach proposed by McLachlan and Jones (Biometrics, 44: 2, 571-578, 1988) for the univariate case is generalized to multivariate measurements. The multivariate solution requires the evaluation of multidimensional integrals over each bin at each iteration of the EM procedure. Naive implementation of the procedure can lead to computationally inefficient results. To reduce the computational cost a number of straightforward numerical techniques are proposed. Results on simulated data indicate that the proposed methods can achieve significant computational gains with no loss in the accuracy of the final parameter estimates. Furthermore, experimental results suggest that with a sufficient number of bins and data points it is possible to estimate the true underlying density almost as well as if the data were not binned. The paper concludes with a brief description of an application of this approach to diagnosis of iron deficiency anemia, in the context of binned and truncated bivariate measurements of volume and hemoglobin concentration from an individual's red blood cells.

City profile - Colombo

Rooted in a history that dates back 1500 years, the concentration of economic activity and infrastructure in Colombo represents an extreme case of urban primacy within the national context of Sri Lanka. Located on the West Coast of the country, the Colombo metropolitan area accommodates a quarter of the country's 18.6 million population, and is the economic and political core of the country. However, Colombo is a city of extremes. Its modem and well-serviced core stands in stark contrast to the circumstances of more than half of its population, who live in poorly serviced shack and shanty settlements. The proportion of the population living in these areas continues to expand, notwithstanding a history of innovative and participatory approaches to development planning and management. Complicating these development challenges, the potential of the city is undermined by a civil war that has been under way since the early 1980s, taking an immense toll in loss of life, political polarization, and economic opportunity costs. This paper traces Colombo's historical development, provides a description of contemporary characteristics and challenges faced by the city, and examines the evolution of plans and programmes designed to improve the conditions of low-income settlements in the city. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence, characteristics, and predictive factors for dysphagia after pediatric traumatic brain injury

Objective: (1) To establish an incidence figure for dysphagia in a population of pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) cases; (2) to provide descriptive data on the admitting characteristics, patterns of resolution, and outcomes of children with and without dysphagia after TBI; and (3) to identify any factors present at admission that may predict dysphagia. Participants: A total of 1, 145 children consecutively admitted to an acute care setting for traumatic brain injury between July 1995 and July 2000. Main outcome measure: Medical parameters relating to dysphagia based on medical chart review. Results: (1) Dysphagia incidence figure of 5.3% across all pediatric head injury admissions. Incidence figures of 68% for severe TBI, 15% for moderate TBI, and only 1% for mild brain injury. (2) Statistically significant differences were found between the dysphagic and nondysphagic subgroups on the variables of length of stay, length of ventilation, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), computed tomography classification, duration of speech pathology intervention, supplemental feeding duration, duration until initiation of oral intake (DIOF), duration to total oral intake (DTOF), and period of time from the initiation of intake until achievement of total oral intake (DI-TOF). (3) Significant predictive factors for dysphagia included GCS < 8.5 and a ventilation period in excess of 1.5 days. Conclusion: The provision of incidence data and predictive factors for dysphagia will enable clinicians in acute care settings to allocate resources necessary to deal with the predicted number of dysphagia cases in a pediatric population, and assist in predicting patients who are at risk for dysphagia following TBI. Early detection of patients with swallowing dysfunction will be aided by these data, in turn helping to facilitate effective medical and speech pathology intervention via assisting the reduction of medical complications such as aspiration pneumonia.

Ex vivo profiling of CD8(+)-T-cell responses to human cytomegalovirus reveals broad and multispecific reactivities in healthy virus carriers

Human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) can establish both nonproductive (latent) and productive (lytic) infections. Many of the proteins expressed during these phases of infection could be expected to be targets of the immune response; however, much of our understanding of the CD8(+)-T-cell response to HCMV is mainly based on the pp65 antigen. Very little is known about T-cell control over other antigens expressed during the different stages of virus infection; this imbalance in our understanding undermines the importance of these antigens in several aspects of HCMV disease pathogenesis. In the present study, an efficient and rapid strategy based on predictive bioinformatics and ex vivo functional T-cell assays was adopted to profile CD8(+)-T-cell responses to a large panel of HCMV antigens expressed during different phases of replication. These studies revealed that CD8(+)-T-cell responses to HCMV often contained multiple antigen-specific reactivities, which were not just constrained to the previously identified pp65 or IE-1 antigens. Unexpectedly, a number of viral proteins including structural, early/late antigens and HCMV-encoded immunomodulators (pp28, pp50, gH, gB, US2, US3, US6, and UL18) were also identified as potential targets for HCMV-specific CD8(+)-T-cell immunity. Based on this extensive analysis, numerous novel HCMV peptide epitopes and their HLA-restricting determinants recognized by these T cells have been defined. These observations contrast with previous findings that viral interference with the antigen-processing pathway during lytic infection would render immediate-early and early/late proteins less immunogenic. This work strongly suggests that successful HCMV-specific immune control in healthy virus carriers is dependent on a strong T-cell response towards a broad repertoire of antigens.

Influence of ageing, heat shock treatment and in vivo total antioxidant status on gene-expression profile and protein synthesis in human peripheral lymphocytes

Ageing results in a progressive, intrinsic and generalised imbalance of the control of regulatory systems. A key manifestation of this complex biological process includes the attenuation of the universal stress response. Here we provide the first global assessment of the ageing process as it affects the heat shock response, utilising human peripheral lymphocytes and cDNA microarray analysis. The genomic approach employed in our preliminary study was supplemented with a proteomic approach. In addition, the current study correlates the in vivo total antioxidant status with the age-related differential gene expression as well as the translational kinetics of heat shock proteins (hsps). Most of the genes encoding stress response proteins on the 4224 element microarray used in this study were significantly elevated after heat shock treatment of lymphocytes obtained from both young and old individuals albeit to a greater extent in the young. Cell signaling and signal transduction genes as well as some oxidoreductases showed varied response. Results from translational kinetics of induction of major hsps, from 0 to 24 It recovery period were broadly consistent with the differential expression of HSC 70 and HSP 40 genes. Total antioxidant levels in plasma from old individuals were found to be significantly lower by comparison with young, in agreement with the widely acknowledged role of oxidant homeostasis in the ageing process. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unexpected clobetasol propionate profile in human stratum corneum after topical application in vitro

Purpose. The validity of using drug amount-depth profiles in stratum corneum to predict uptake of clobetasol propionate into stratum corneum and its transport into deeper skin layers was investigated. Methods. In vitro diffusion experiments through human epidermis were carried out using Franz-type glass diffusion cells. A saturated solution of clobetasol propionate in 20% (V/V) aqueous propylene glycol was topically applied for 48 h. Steady state flux was calculated from the cumulative amount of drug permeated vs. time profile. Epidermal partitioning was conducted by applying a saturated drug solution to both sides of the epidermis and allowing time to equilibrate. The tape stripping technique was used to define drug concentration-depth profiles in stratum corneum for both the diffusion and equilibrium experiments. Results. The concentration-depth profile of clobetasol propionate in stratum corneum for the diffusion experiment is biphasic. A logarithmic decline of the drug concentration over the first four to five tape strips flattens to a relatively constant low concentration level in deeper layers. The drug concentration-depth profile for the equilibrium studies displays a similar shape. Conclusions. The shape of the concentration-depth profile of clobetasol propionate is mainly because of the variable partitioning coefficient in different stratum corneum layers.

Chemical characterisation of deep profile Ferrosols under sugarcane in wet tropical northern Queensland

The chemical properties of deep profile samples ( up to 12 m) of Ferrosols from northern Queensland were investigated to provide an understanding of the accumulation of nitrate ( NO3) within these soil profiles. The influence of other cations and anions present in the soil solution or on the exchange and the charge chemistry of the profiles were examined with respect to the NO3 accumulations. The major ions in the soil solution were Na, NO3, and chloride ( Cl). Distinct regions of anion accumulation were observed; SO4 accumulated in the upper profile of all cores, whereas NO3 and Cl accumulations were restricted to the lower profile of cores with appreciable AEC (> 1 cmol(c)/kg). Gaines-Thomas selectivity coefficients were used to indicate exchange preference for cations and anions, and are as follows: Al > Ca similar to Mg > K > Na and sulfate (SO4) > Cl similar to NO3. The selectivity of SO4 increased and the extractable SO4 decreased in the lower profile of all cores. This has important implications for the adsorption of NO3 and Cl. The NO3 and Cl accumulations were shown to correspond to a region of low SO4 occupancy of the exchange sites in the lower profile. Along with the high SO4 selectivity, this suggests that SO4 may control the positioning of the NO3 accumulations. It was concluded that the NO3 accumulations were relatively stable under current management practices, although the reduction in NO3 inputs would likely see the gradual replacement of NO3 with Cl as a result of their comparable selectivity for exchange sites.

Anomalous water absorption in porous materials

The absorption of fluid by unsaturated, rigid porous materials may be characterized by the sorptivity. This is a simple parameter to determine and is increasingly being used as a measure of a material's resistance to exposure to fluids (especially moisture and reactive solutes) in aggressive environments. The complete isothermal absorption process is described by a nonlinear diffusion equation, with the hydraulic diffusivity being a strongly nonlinear function of the degree of saturation of the material. This diffusivity can be estimated from the sorptivity test. In a typical test the cumulative absorption is proportional to the square root of time. However, a number of researchers have observed deviation from this behaviour when the infiltrating fluid is water and there is some potential for chemo-mechanical interaction with the material. In that case the current interpretation of the test and estimation of the hydraulic diffusivity is no longer appropriate. Kuntz and Lavallee (2001) discuss the anomalous behaviour and propose a non-Darcian model as a more appropriate physical description. We present an alternative Darcian explanation and theory that retrieves the earlier advantages of the simple sorptivity test in providing parametric information about the material's hydraulic properties and allowing simple predictive formulae for the wetting profile to be generated.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.