109 resultados para Probabilistic constraints


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Thc oen itninteureasc ttioo nb eo fa pcreangtmraal tiiscs uaen di ns ymnotadcetlisc ocfo nsestnrtaeinnctse processing. It is well established that object relatives (1) are harder to process than subject relatives (2). Passivization, other things being equal, increases sentence complexity. However, one of the functions of the passive construction is to promote an NP into the role of subject so that it can be more easily bound to the head NP in a higher clause. Thus, (3) is predicted to be marginally preferred over (1). Passiviazation in this instance may be seen as a way of avoiding the object relative construction. 1. The pipe that the traveller smoked annoyed the passengers. 2. The traveller that smoked the pipe annoyed the passengers. 3.The pipe that was smoked by the traveller annoyed the 4.The traveller that the pipe was smoked by annoyed the 5.The traveller that the lady was assaulted by annoyed the In (4) we have relativization of an NP which has been demoted by passivization to the status of a by-phrase. Such relative clauses may only be obtained under quite restrictive pragmatic conditions. Many languages do not permit relativization of a constituent as low as a by-phrase on the NP accessibility hierarchy (Comrie, 1984). The factors which determine the acceptability of demoted NP relatives like (4-5) reflect the ease with which the NP promoted to subject position can be taken as a discourse topic. We explored the acceptability of sentences such as (1-5) using pair-wise judgements of samddifferent meaning, accompanied by ratings of easeof understanding. Results are discussed with reference to Gibsons DLT model of linguistic complexity and sentence processing (Gibson, 2000)

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We use published and new trace element data to identify element ratios which discriminate between arc magmas from the supra-subduction zone mantle wedge and those formed by direct melting of subducted crust (i.e. adakites). The clearest distinction is obtained with those element ratios which are strongly fractionated during refertilisation of the depleted mantle wedge, ultimately reflecting slab dehydration. Hence, adakites have significantly lower Pb/Nd and B/Be but higher Nb/Ta than typical arc magmas and continental crust as a whole. Although Li and Be are also overenriched in continental crust, behaviour of Li/Yb and Be/Nd is more complex and these ratios do not provide unique signatures of slab melting. Archaean tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorites (TTGs) strongly resemble ordinary mantle wedge-derived arc magmas in terms of fluid-mobile trace element content, implying that they-did not form by slab melting but that they originated from mantle which was hydrated and enriched in elements lost from slabs during prograde dehydration. We suggest that Archaean TTGs formed by extensive fractional crystallisation from a mafic precursor. It is widely claimed that the time between the creation and subduction of oceanic lithosphere was significantly shorter in the Archaean (i.e. 20 Ma) than it is today. This difference was seen as an attractive explanation for the presumed preponderance of adakitic magmas during the first half of Earth's history. However, when we consider the effects of a higher potential mantle temperature on the thickness of oceanic crust, it follows that the mean age of oceanic lithosphere has remained virtually constant. Formation of adakites has therefore always depended on local plate geometry and not on potential mantle temperature.

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The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Field populations of Drosophila serrata display reproductive character displacement in cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) when sympatric with Drosophila birchii. We have previously shown that the naturally occurring pattern of reproductive character displacement can be experimentally replicated by exposing field allopatric populations of D. serrata to experimental sympatry with D. birchii. Here, we tested whether the repeated evolution of reproductive character displacement in natural and experimental populations was a consequence of genetic constraints on the evolution of CHCs. The genetic variance-covariance (G) matrices for CHCs were determined for populations of D. serrata that had evolved in either the presence or absence of D. birchii under field and experimental conditions. Natural selection on mate recognition under both field and experimental sympatric conditions increased the genetic variance in CHCs consistent with a response to selection based on rare alleles. A close association between G eigenstructure and the eigenstructure of the phenotypic divergence (D) matrix in natural and experimental populations suggested that G matrix eigenstructure may have determined the direction in which reproductive character displacement evolved during the reinforcement of mate recognition.

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Modeling physiological processes using tracer kinetic methods requires knowledge of the time course of the tracer concentration in blood supplying the organ. For liver studies, however, inaccessibility of the portal vein makes direct measurement of the hepatic dual-input function impossible in humans. We want to develop a method to predict the portal venous time-activity curve from measurements of an arterial time-activity curve. An impulse-response function based on a continuous distribution of washout constants is developed and validated for the gut. Experiments with simultaneous blood sampling in aorta and portal vein were made in 13 anesthetized pigs following inhalation of intravascular [O-15] CO or injections of diffusible 3-O[ C-11] methylglucose (MG). The parameters of the impulse-response function have a physiological interpretation in terms of the distribution of washout constants and are mathematically equivalent to the mean transit time ( T) and standard deviation of transit times. The results include estimates of mean transit times from the aorta to the portal vein in pigs: (T) over bar = 0.35 +/- 0.05 min for CO and 1.7 +/- 0.1 min for MG. The prediction of the portal venous time-activity curve benefits from constraining the regression fits by parameters estimated independently. This is strong evidence for the physiological relevance of the impulse-response function, which includes asymptotically, and thereby justifies kinetically, a useful and simple power law. Similarity between our parameter estimates in pigs and parameter estimates in normal humans suggests that the proposed model can be adapted for use in humans.

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We investigated how the relative direction of limb movements in external space (iso- and non-isodirectionality), muscular constraints (the relative timing of homologous muscle activation) and the egocentric frame of reference (moving simultaneously toward/away the longitudinal axis of the body) contribute to the stability of coordinated movements. In the first experiment, we attempted to determine the respective stability of isodirectional and non-isodirectional movements in between-persons coordination. In a second experiment, we determined the effect of the relative direction in external space, and of muscular constraints, on pattern stability during a within-person bimanual coordination task. In the third experiment we dissociated the effects on pattern stability of the muscular constraints, relative direction and egocentric frame of reference. The results showed that (1) simultaneous activation of homologous muscles resulted in more stable performance than simultaneous activation of non-homologous muscles during within-subject coordination, and that (2) isodirectional movements were more stable than non-isodirectional movements during between-persons coordination, confirming the role of the relative direction of the moving limbs in the stability of bimanual coordination. Moreover, the egocentric constraint was to some extent found distinguishable from the effect of the relative direction of the moving limbs in external space, and from the effect of the relative timing of muscle activation. In summary, the present study showed that relative direction of the moving limbs in external space and muscular constraints may interact either to stabilize or destabilize coordination patterns. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

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The Jiaodong gold province is the largest gold repository in China. Both mineralization and granitoid hosts are spatially related to the crustal-scale Tan-Lu strike-slip fault system, which developed along the Mesozoic continental margin in eastern China. A series of Ar-40/Ar-39 laser incremental heating analyses of hydrothermal sericite/muscovite from three major gold deposits (Jiaojia, Xincheng, and Wangershan) and igneous biotite from the granodiorite hosts were performed to establish a possible temporal link between gold mineralization, magmatism, and movement along the Tan-Lu fault zone. Magmatic biotite crystals yield well-defined and concordant plateau ages between 124.5+/-0.4 Ma and 124.0+/-0.4 Ma (2sigma), whereas sericite and muscovite samples (a total of 30 single separates) give reproducible plateau ages ranging from 121.0+/-0.4 Ma to 119.2+/-0.2 Ma (2sigma). An integration of our Ar-40/Ar-39 results with age data from other major gold deposits in Jiaodong demonstrates that widespread gold mineralization occurred contemporaneously during a 2-3-m.yr. period. Most gold deposits show intimate spatial associations with abundant mafic to intermediate dikes. The mafic dikes have K-Ar ages of 123.5-119.6 Ma, in excellent agreement with those of the gold deposits. These newly obtained Ar-40/Ar-39 ages, in combination with other independent geological and geochronological data on granodioritic intrusions (130-126 Ma), volcanic rocks (1243.6-114.7 Ma), and deformed rocks within strike-slip faults (132-120 Ma) in Jiaodong or adjacent areas, also support the idea that gold mineralization postdated the granodioritic magmatism but was contemporaneous with mafic magmatism and volcanism, all controlled by the transtensional motion along the Tan-Lu fault in the Early Cretaceous.

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Rocks used as construction aggregate in temperate climates deteriorate to differing degrees because of repeated freezing and thawing. The magnitude of the deterioration depends on the rock's properties. Aggregate, including crushed carbonate rock, is required to have minimum geotechnical qualities before it can be used in asphalt and concrete. In order to reduce chances of premature and expensive repairs, extensive freeze-thaw tests are conducted on potential construction rocks. These tests typically involve 300 freeze-thaw cycles and can take four to five months to complete. Less time consuming tests that (1) predict durability as well as the extended freeze-thaw test or that (2) reduce the number of rocks subject to the extended test, could save considerable amounts of money. Here we use a probabilistic neural network to try and predict durability as determined by the freeze-thaw test using four rock properties measured on 843 limestone samples from the Kansas Department of Transportation. Modified freeze-thaw tests and less time consuming specific gravity (dry), specific gravity (saturated), and modified absorption tests were conducted on each sample. Durability factors of 95 or more as determined from the extensive freeze-thaw tests are viewed as acceptable—rocks with values below 95 are rejected. If only the modified freeze-thaw test is used to predict which rocks are acceptable, about 45% are misclassified. When 421 randomly selected samples and all four standardized and scaled variables were used to train aprobabilistic neural network, the rate of misclassification of 422 independent validation samples dropped to 28%. The network was trained so that each class (group) and each variable had its own coefficient (sigma). In an attempt to reduce errors further, an additional class was added to the training data to predict durability values greater than 84 and less than 98, resulting in only 11% of the samples misclassified. About 43% of the test data was classed by the neural net into the middle group—these rocks should be subject to full freeze-thaw tests. Thus, use of the probabilistic neural network would meanthat the extended test would only need be applied to 43% of the samples, and 11% of the rocks classed as acceptable would fail early.

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Cyclic peptides containing oxazole and thiazole heterocycles have been examined for their capacity to be used as scaffolds in larger, more complex, protein-like structures. Both the macrocyclic scaffolds and the supramolecular structures derived therefrom have been visualised by molecular modelling techniques. These molecules are too symmetrical to examine structurally by NMR spectroscopy. The cyclic hexapeptide ([Aaa-Thz](3), [Aaa-Oxz](3)) and cyclic octapeptide ([Aaa-Thz](4), [Aaa-Oxz](4)) analogues are composed of dipeptide surrogates (Aaa: amino acid, Thz: thiazole, Oxz: oxazole) derived from intramolecular condensation of cysteine or serine/threonine side chains in dipeptides like Aaa-Cys, Aaa-Ser and Aaa-Thr. The five-membered heterocyclic rings, like thiazole, oxazole and reduced analogues like thiazoline, thiazolidine and oxazoline have profound influences on the structures and bioactivities of cyclic peptides derived therefrom. This work suggests that such constrained cyclic peptides can be used as scaffolds to create a range of novel protein-like supramolecular structures (e.g. cylinders, troughs, cones, multi-loop structures, helix bundles) that are comparable in size, shape and composition to bioactive surfaces of proteins. They may therefore represent interesting starting points for the design of novel artificial proteins and artificial enzymes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.