A multilocus perspective on refugial isolation and divergence in rainforest skinks (Carlia)

To explore the evolutionary consequences of climate-induced fluctuations in distribution of rainforest habitat we contrasted demographic histories of divergence among three lineages of Australian rainforest endemic skinks. The red-throated rainbow skink, Carlia rubrigularis, consists of morphologically indistinguishable northern and southern mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages that are partially reproductively isolated at their parapatric boundary. The third lineage (C. rhomboidalis) inhabits rainforests just to the south of C. rubrigularis, has blue, rather than red-throated males, and for mtDNA is more closely related to southern C. rubrigularis than is northern C. rubrigularis. Multigene coalescent analyses supported more recent divergence between morphologically distinct lineages than between morphologically conservative lineages. There was effectively no migration and therefore stronger isolation between southern C. rubrigularis and C. rhomboidalis, and low unidirectional migration between morphologically conservative lineages of C. rubrigularis. We found little or no evidence for strong differences in effective population size, and hence different contributions of genetic drift in the demographic history of the three lineages. Overall the results suggest contrasting responses to long-term fluctuations in rainforest habitats, leading to varying opportunities for speciation.

Comment on "On the regulation of populations of mammals, birds, fish, and insects" II

Sibly et at. (Reports, 22 July 2005, p. 607) recently estimated the relationship between population size and growth rate for 1780 time series of various species. I explain why some aspects of their analysis are questionable and, therefore, why their results and estimation procedure should be used with care.

Estimating the abundance of eastern grey kangaroos (Macropus giganteus) in south-eastern New South Wales, Australia

To provide an estimate of kangaroo numbers for harvest management, a survey was designed for an area of 29500 km(2) encompassing the agricultural and grazing lands of the Braidwood, Cooma, Goulburn, Gundagai and Yass Rural Lands Protection Board (RLPB) districts in south-east New South Wales. An aerial survey using a helicopter was considered more efficient than ground survey because of the size of the area, relatively high relief and dense tree cover, and the need for regular monitoring. Tree cover and landscape relief was used to stratify the five RLPB districts into areas of probable high, medium and low kangaroo density. Kangaroo density estimated from helicopter surveys conducted in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales was used to suggest densities and thereby allocate survey effort in each stratum. A survey comprising 735 km of transect line was conducted in winter 2003 with a target precision of 20%. The survey returned an estimate of 286600 32300 eastern grey kangaroos for the whole of the proposed south-east New South Wales kangaroo-management zone. In 2004, a trial harvest of slightly less than 15% of this estimate was taken. Success of the trial will be determined by the impact of harvesting on the population's dynamics, by landholder and industry participation, and by the capacity to monitor population size, harvest offtake and compliance with regulations.

Should managed populations be monitored every year?

We often need to estimate the size of wild populations to determine the appropriate management action, for example, to set a harvest quota. Monitoring is usually planned under the assumption that it must be carried out at fixed intervals in time, typically annually, before the harvest quota is set. However, monitoring can be very expensive, and we should weigh the cost of monitoring against the improvement that it makes in decision making. A less costly alternative to monitoring annually is to predict the population size using a population model and information from previous surveys. In this paper, the problem of monitoring frequency is posed within a decision-theory framework. We discover that a monitoring regime that varies according to the state of the system call outperform fixed-interval monitoring This idea is illustrated using data for a red kangaroo (Macropits rufus) population in South Australia. Whether or not one should monitor in a given year is dependent on the estimated population density in the previous year, the uncertainty in that population estimate, and past rainfall. We discover that monitoring is-important when a model-based prediction of population density is very uncertain. This may occur if monitoring has not taken place for several years, or if rainfall has been above average. Monitoring is also important when prior information suggests that the population is near a critical threshold in population abundance. However, monitoring is less important when the optimal management action would not be altered by new information.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Phi = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

Thelastomatoidea (Nematoda : Oxyurida) of the Australian giant burrowing cockroach, Macropanesthia rhinoceros (Blaberidae : Geoscapheinae)

The thelastomatoid fauna of Macropanesthia rhinoceros was examined from 13 localities across its range in Queensland, Australia. Nine species of thelastomatoids, including two representing new genera, Geoscaphenema megaovum n. g., n. sp. and Jaidenema rhinoceratum n. g., n. sp., were found. Macropanesthia rhinoceros is reported as a new host for seven species previously recorded from Panesthia cribrata (Blaberidae: Panesthiinae) and P. tryoni tryoni, viz, Blattophila sphaerolaima, Leidynemella fusiformis, Cordonicola gibsoni, Travassosinema jaidenae, Coronostoma australiae, Hammerschmidtiella hochi and Desmicola ornata. Overall estimated richness for the system ranged from 10.1-13.5 species. The high degree of parasite faunal overlap between M. rhinoceros and the two Panesthia species is surprising given the disparate ecological niches that they occupy; P. cribrata and P. tryoni tryoni burrow in, and feed upon, moist decaying wood and require a climate that is moist all year round, whereas M. rhinoceros burrows in loose soil, feeds on fallen leaf litter and is tolerant of much drier environments.

A diffusion approach to approximating preservation probabilities for gene duplicates

Consider a haploid population and, within its genome, a gene whose presence is vital for the survival of any individual. Each copy of this gene is subject to mutations which destroy its function. Suppose one member of the population somehow acquires a duplicate copy of the gene, where the duplicate is fully linked to the original gene's locus. Preservation is said to occur if eventually the entire population consists of individuals descended from this one which initially carried the duplicate. The system is modelled by a finite state-space Markov process which in turn is approximated by a diffusion process, whence an explicit expression for the probability of preservation is derived. The event of preservation can be compared to the fixation of a selectively neutral gene variant initially present in a single individual, the probability of which is the reciprocal of the population size. For very weak mutation, this and the probability of preservation are equal, while as mutation becomes stronger, the preservation probability tends to double this reciprocal. This is in excellent agreement with simulation studies.

Genetic structure and male-mediated gene flow in the ghost bat (Macroderma gigas)

The Australian ghost bat is a large, opportunistic carnivorous species that has undergone a marked range contraction toward more mesic, tropical sites over the past century. Comparison of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences and six nuclear microsatellite loci in 217 ghost bats from nine populations across subtropical and tropical Australia revealed strong population subdivision (mtDNA phi(ST) = 0.80; microsatellites URST = 0.337). Low-latitude (tropical) populations had higher heterozygosity and less marked phylogeographic structure and lower subdivision among sites within regions (within Northern Territory [NT] and within North Queensland [NQ]) than did populations at higher latitudes (subtropical sites; central Queensland [CQ]), although sampling of geographically proximal breeding sites is unavoidably restricted for the latter. Gene flow among populations within each of the northern regions appears to be male biased in that the difference in population subdivision for mtDNA and microsatellites (NT phi(ST) = 0.39, URST = 0.02; NQ phi(ST) = 0.60, URST = -0.03) is greater than expected from differences in the effective population size of haploid versus diploid loci. The high level of population subdivision across the range of the ghost bat contrasts with evidence for high gene flow in other chiropteran species and may be due to narrow physiological tolerances and consequent limited availability of roosts for ghost bats, particularly across the subtropical and relatively arid regions. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that the contraction of the species' range is associated with late Holocene climate change. The extreme isolation among higher-latitude populations may predispose them to additional local extinctions if the processes responsible for the range contraction continue to operate.

The effect of temperature on the size and population density of dinoflagellates in larvae of the reef coral Porites astreoides

Pre-settlement events play an important role in determining larval success in marine invertebrates with bentho-pelagic life histories, yet the consequences of these events typically are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the pre-settlement impacts of different seawater temperatures on the size and population density of dinoflagellate symbionts in brooded larvae of the Caribbean coral Porites astreoides. Larvae were collected from P. astreoides at 14-20 m depth on Conch Reef (Florida) in June 2002, and incubated for 24 h at 15 temperatures spanning the range 25.1 degrees-30.0 degrees C in mean increments of 0.4 +/- 0.1 degrees C (+/- SD). The most striking feature of the larval responses was the magnitude of change in both parameters across this 5 degrees C temperature range within 24 h. In general, larvae were largest and had the highest population densities of Symbiodinium sp. between 26.4 degrees-27.7 degrees C, and were smallest and had the lowest population densities at 25.8 degrees C and 28.8 degrees C. Larval size and symbiont population density were elevated slightly (relative to the minimal values) at the temperature extremes of 25.1 degrees C and 30 degrees C. These data demonstrate that coral larvae are highly sensitive to seawater temperature during their pelagic phase, and respond through changes in size and the population densities of Symbiodinium sp. to ecologically relevant temperature signals within 24 h. The extent to which these changes are biologically meaningful will depend on the duration and frequency of exposure of coral larvae to spatio-temporal variability in seawater temperature, and whether the responses have cascading effects on larval success and their entry to the post-settlement and recruitment phase.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Size-based predation by kookaburras (Dacelo novaeguineae) on lizards (Eulamprus tympanum : Scincidae): what determines prey vulnerability?

Lizards and birds are both popular model organisms in behavioural ecology, but the interactions between them have attracted little study. Given the putative importance of birds as predators of diurnal Lizards, it is of considerable interest to know which traits (of lizards as well as birds) influence the outcome of a predatory attempt. We studied predation by giant terrestrial kingfishers (kookaburras, Dacelo novaeguineae: Alcedinidae) on heliothermic diurnal lizards (highland water skinks, Eulamprus tympanum: Scincidae), with particular reference to the role of prey (lizard) size. Our approach was twofold: to gather direct evidence (sizes of lizards consumed in the field, compared to those available) and indirect evidence rite-related shifts in lizard behaviour). We quantified the size structure of a natural population of skinks (determined by an extensive mark-recapture program), and compared it to the sizes of wild lizards taken by kookaburras (determined by analysis of prey remains left at the birds' nests,. Kookaburras showed size-based predation: they preyed mainly on small and medium-sized rather than large lizards in the field. However, the mechanism producing this bias remains elusive. It is not due to any distinctive behavioural attributes (locomotor ability, activity level, habitat usage) of the lizards of the size class disproportionately taken by the kookaburras. The greater vulnerability of subadult lizards may reflect subtle ontogenetic shifts in ecological and behavioural traits, but our data suggest that great caution is needed in inferring patterns of vulnerability to predation from indirect measures based on either the prey or the predator alone. Instead, we need direct observations on the interaction between the two.

Review of "Comorbidity, disability and the need for treatment for DSM-IV psychiatric disorders in an insured population"

Background: This study presents estimates of 12 month and current prevalences of DSM-IV disorders, and the related comor-bidity, disability and service utilization, derived from a national probability sample in Australia. Methods: The DSM-IV psychiatric disorders among persons aged 18 and over in the Australian population were assessed with data collected by lay interviewers using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, other screening interviews and measures of disability and service utilization. The response rate was 78.1% and the final sample size was 10,641 adults. Results: Close to 20% reported at least one twelve month disorder and 13% a disorder current within the past 30 days. ICD-10 diagnoses were also derived, DSM-IV was the more conservative classification whether or not the new clinical significance criteria was applied. Major depression, any personality disorder, and alcohol dependence were the three most common twelve month disorders, generalized anxiety disorder replaced alcohol dependence as the third most common current disorder. The sexes has similar rates of any disorder, but women had higher rates of affective and anxiety disorders, men higher rates of substance use disorders. Prevalence of most disorders declined with age and education, and were lower among those employed or married. Respondents whose symptoms met criteria for three or more disorders in the past year had greatly increased rates of disability and of mental health consultations. The affective and somatoform disorders were associated with the highest rates of disability. Only 36% of people with a mental disorder this year had consulted for a mental problem, and most had seen a general practitioner. We identified those with a current disorder who were disabled or multiply comorbid - only half had consulted and of those who had not, more than half said they did not need treatment. Conclusions: The 12 month prevalence was lower than reported in the US National Comorbidity Survey but method factors might account for this. The relationships between prevalence and demographic variables, and between comorbidity, disability and service utilization were similar to those found in the US survey. Australia has a national health insurance scheme with total coverage and access to medical help is available to all, commonly at little or no cost. We identify the high rate of not consulting among those with a current disorder, and additional disability or multiple comorbidity, as an important public health problem. Kessler argued for more research on barriers to professional help seeking. This report reinforces his conclusion and shows that economic barriers are not the dominant issue.

Aspects of the biology of the yabby Trypea australiensis (Dana) (Decapoda : Thalassinidea) and the potential of burrow counts as an indirect measure of population density

The thalassinidean shrimp Trypea australiensis (the yabby) commonly occurs on intertidal sandflats and subtidal regions of sheltered embayments and estuaries along the east coast of Australia and is harvested commercially and recreationally for use as bait by anglers. The potential for counts of burrow openings to provide a reliable indirect estimate of the abundance of yabbies was examined on intertidal sandflats on North Stradbroke Island (Queensland, Australia). The relationship between the number of burrow openings and the abundance of yabbies was generally poor and also varied significantly through time, casting doubt on previous estimates of abundance for this species based on unvalidated hole counts. Spatial and temporal variation in population density, the size at maturity and the reproductive period of the yabby were also assessed. Except for an initial peak in abundance as a result of recruitment, the density of yabbies was constant throughout the study but considerably less than that estimated from a previous study in the same area. Ovigerous females were recorded at 3 mm carapace length (CL) which is smaller than previously recorded for this species and thalassinideans in general. Small ovigerous females were found throughout the study, including the summer months, which is unusual for thalassinideans in the intertidal zone. It was hypothesised that in the intertidal zone, small female yabbies may be able to balance the metabolic demands of reproduction and respiration at higher temperatures than can larger females allowing them to reproduce in the warmer months.

Variable effects of larval size on post-metamorphic performance in the field

Larval quality may be capable of explaining much of the variation in the recruitment and subsequent population dynamics of benthic marine invertebrates. Whilst the effects of larval nutritional condition on adult performance have received the most attention, recent work has shown that larval size may also be an important and ubiquitous source of variation in larval quality. We examined the effects of variation in larval size on the post-metamorphic survival and growth of Watersipora subtorquata in 2 very different habitats - experimental substrata and pier pilings. We found strong effects of larval size on colony performance, although these varied among experiments. For colonies on experimental substrata, larval size positively affected adult survival and, initially, growth. However, after 3 wk in the field, there was no relationship between larval size and colony size, possibly because colonies were completely surrounded by newly settled organisms. Larval size also positively affected post-metamorphic growth of colonies on pier pilings, but, surprisingly, colonies that came from larger larvae had lower survival than colonies from smaller larvae. Overall, variation in larval size will strongly affect the recruitment and subsequent performance of adults in this species, although this may vary among different habitats. This study highlights the importance of examining the effects of larval quality on adult performance in as realistic conditions as possible, because of the strong interaction between larval size effects and the environment.