A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Fertility and female work force participation in Bangladesh: Causality and cointegration

This paper examines the causal links between fertility and female labor force participation in Bangladesh over the period 1974-2000 by specifying a bivariate and several trivariate models in a vector error correction framework. The three trivariate models alternatively include average age at first marriage for females, per capita GDP and infant mortality rate, which control for the effects of other socio-economic factors on fertility and female labor force participation. All the specified models indicate an inverse long-run relationship between fertility and female labor force participation. While the bivariate model also indicates bidirectional causality, the multivariate models confirm only a unidirectional causality – from labor force participation to fertility. Further, per capita GDP and infant mortality rate appear to Granger-cause both fertility and female labor force participation.

Does workforce participation empower women? Micro-level evidence from urban Bangladesh

Empirical studies on the impact of women’s paid jobs on their empowerment and welfare in the Bangladesh context are rare. The few studies on the issue to date have all been confined to the garment workers only although studies indicate that women’s workforce participation in Bangladesh has increased across-the-board. Besides, none of these studies has made an attempt to control for the non-working women and/or applied any statistical technique to control for the effects of other pertinent determinants of women’s empowerment and welfare such as education, age, religion and place of living. This study overcomes these drawbacks and presents alternative assessments of the link between women’s workforce participation and empowerment on the basis of survey data from the two largest cities in Bangladesh. While the generic assessment indicates that women’s paid jobs have positive implications for women’s participation in decisions on fertility, children’s education and healthcare as well as their possession and control of resources, the econometric assessment negates most of these observations. Women’s education, on the other hand, appears to be more important than their participation in the labour force. The study underlines the fact that by omitting other relevant explanatory variables from the analysis, the previous studies might have overestimated the impact of women’s paid work on their empowerment. Among other things, the paper also highlights the importance of women’s job category, religion and regional differences for women’s empowerment.

Popular understandings of 'UnAustralian': an investigation of the un-national

In social science the 'national' has been studied extensively, but comparatively little attention has been given to the 'un-national'. The article takes up this challenge in an Australian context. Drawing on the work of Raymond Williams, investigation is centred around the keyword 'UnAustralian'. Participants in focus groups were asked to nominate and account for what they thought of as 'UnAustralian' people, places, values, activities, groups and organizations. Analysis of the data revealed that two factors underpinned an attribution: incivility and foreign influence. Contemporary uses revolve around outcomes from globalization and can be contrasted with the centrality of class politics to deployments of the concept in the first part of the 20th century.

The leisure participation of clients with a dual diagnosis

People with a dual diagnosis experience disruption in carrying out their daily occupations. This article describes a study in which an occupational therapist explored the leisure participation of clients with a dual diagnosis. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with four outpatients from an alcohol and drug rehabilitation programme. Inductive analysis of the informants’ interviews identified two main themes: leisure as part of the recovery process and the barriers to leisure participation. This study provides support for the need to understand the leisure occupations of the clients with whom occupational therapists work. Further research is required to examine the interventions that assist clients with a dual diagnosis to develop meaningful leisure activities.

Using Theory to Understand the Multiple Determinants of Low Participation in Worksite Health Promotion Programs

Low participation at the employee or worksite level limits the potential public health impact of worksite-based interventions. Ecological models suggest that multiple levels of influence operate to determine participation patterns in worksite health promotion programs. Most investigations into the determinants of low participation study the intrapersonal, interpersonal, and institutional influences on employee participation. Community- and policy-level influences have not received attention, nor has consideration been given to worksite-level participation issues. The purpose of this article is to discuss one macrosocial theoretical perspective—political economy of health—that may guide practitioners and researchers interested in addressing the community- and policy-level determinants of participation in worksite health promotion programs. The authors argue that using theory to investigate the full spectrum of determinants offers a more complete range of intervention and research options for maximizing employee and worksite levels of participation.

Mindreading and moral awareness in popular and rejected preschoolers

This study sought to examine links among young children's peer relations, their moral understanding in terms of the ability to distinguish lies from mistakes, and their theory-of-mind development. Based on sociometric measures, 109 children with a mean age of 4.8 years were divided into groups of popular and rejected preschoolers. Rejected children who had a stable mutual friend scored higher on measures of moral understanding and theory of mind than did rejected children without such friendships. Similarly, popular children who had a stable mutual friendship outperformed other popular children on mindreading, although their moral understanding was no better than that of the popular group who lacked mutual friends. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that peer popularity was a significant independent predictor of children's moral understanding after any effects of verbal maturity, age and theory-of-mind were statistically controlled. Moreover, having a reciprocal stable friendship made a significant independent contribution to the explanation of individual differences in mindreading, over and above age and verbal maturity, which also contributed significantly. These results are discussed in terms of conversational, cognitive, and emotional processes in the development of social cognition.

Beyond participation, hierarchies, management and markets: 'New' governance and place policies

This paper argues that a 'new local governance' discourse offers some promise as a policy framework that can re-conceptualise the state-community (and market) relationship and deliver improved community outcomes, particularly in the context of place based or spatial policies and programs.

Participation and older people: Meaning, theory and practice

Increasing older people's participation in society is important in ageing policies worldwide. There is a need to understand the challenges for health professionals of transforming policy on participation into liberating social change practices on the ground. This paper explores the meaning, theory and practice of participation. It uses the example of a work in progress project that has attempted to address structural barriers to older people's participation within an Australian aged care facility, to illustrate theoretical and practice principles surrounding participation.

Correlates of adults' participation in physical activity: review and update

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The impact of participation in activities while on vacation on senior's psychological well-being: A path model application

This article extends earlier research regarding the relationships between senior travelers’ participation in activities while on vacation, their overall satisfaction with their travel experiences, and their psychological well-being. A path model was developed to depict the direct and indirect relationships between these variables by using a sample of senior tourists traveling on North American escorted tour itineraries. Whereas the direct effect accounted for 98% of the relationships between the senior tourists’ levels of participation in activities and their psychological well-being, the indirect effect was negligible. The study concluded that senior tourists’activity levels were significantly related to their psychological well-being, but their satisfaction with the tours was not.