Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

Nutrient dynamics in Queensland savannas: Implications for the sustainability of land clearing for pasture production

Eucalyptus savannas on low nutrient soils are being extensively cleared in Queensland. In this paper we provide background information relevant to understanding nutrient (particularly nitrogen) dynamics in sub/tropical savanna, and review the available evidence relevant to understanding the potential impact of clearing Eucalyptus savanna on nutrient relations. The limited evidence presently available can be used to argue for the extreme positions that: (i) woody vegetation competes with grasses Cor resources. and tree/shrub clearing improves pasture production, (ii) woody vegetation benefits pasture production. At present, the lack of fundamental knowledge about Australian savanna nutrient relations makes accurate predictions about medium- and long-term effects of clearing on nutrient relations in low nutrient savannas difficult. The future of cleared savannas will differ if herbaceous species maintain all functions that woody vegetation has previously held, or if woody species have functions distinct from those of herbaceous vegetation. Research suggests that savanna soils are susceptible to nitrate leaching, and that trees improve the nutrient status of savanna soils in some situations. The nitrogen capital of cleared savanna is at risk if mobile ions are not captured efficiently by the vegetation. and nitrogen input via N-2 fixation from vegetation and microbiotic crusts is reduced. In order to predict clearing effects on savanna nutrient relations, research should be directed to answering (i) how open or closed nutrient cycles are in natural and cleared savanna, (ii) which functions are performed by savanna constituents such as woody and herbaceous vegetation, native and exotic plant species. termites, and microbiotic 7 crusts in relation to nutrient cycles. In the absence of detailed knowledge about savanna functioning, clearing carries the risk of promoting continuous nutrient depiction.

Rapid isolation of total RNA and genomic DNA from Hakea actities

Tissues of the Australian native plant species Hakea actities (Proteaceae) contain numerous metabolites and structural compounds that hinder the isolation of nucleic acids. Separate RNA and genomic DNA extraction procedures were developed to isolate high quality nucleic acids from H. actities. Total RNA was extracted from leaves, roots and cluster roots of H. actities grown in low nutrient levels. Cluster root formation in H. actities only occurs when the plants are grown in low nutrient concentrations. However, under these conditions, nucleic acid extraction becomes increasingly difficult. The new procedures are faster than many of the published nucleic acid extraction protocols, and avoid the use of hazardous chemicals. The RNA extraction method was used successfully on another Australian species and a crop species, suggesting that the procedure is useful for molecular studies of a broad range of plants.

Relationship between oviposition preference and offspring performance in Australian Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae)

We investigated the oviposition preference and larval performance of Helicoverpa armigera under laboratory conditions to determine if the oviposition preference of individual females on maize, cowpea and cotton correlates with offspring performance on the leaves of the same host plants. The host-plant preference hierarchy of females did not correlate with their offspring performance. Female moths chose host plants that contributed less to their offspring fitness. Plant effects accounted for the largest amount of variation in offspring performance, while the effects of female (family) was low. The offspring of most females (80%, n = 10) were broadly similar, but 20% (two out of 10), showed marked difference in their offspring performance across the host-plant species. Similarly, there was no relation between larval feeding preference and performance. However, like most laboratory experiments, our experi-mental design does not allow the evaluation of ecological factors (for example, natural enemies, host abundance, etc.) that can play an important role in larval performance in the field. Overall, the results highlight the importance of carrying out preference performance analysis on the individual or family level, rather than pooling individuals to obtain average population data.

Towards the on-farm conservation of the assassin bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker) (Hemiptera : Reduviidae) during winter using crop plants as refuges

Habitat instability associated with seasonal crop succession in broad-acre farming systems presents a problem for the conservation and utilisation of beneficial insects in annual field crops. The present paper describes two experiments used to measure the potential of seven plant species to be utilised as winter refuges to support and conserve the predatory bug Pristhesancus plagipennis (Walker). In the first experiment, replicated plots of canola (Brassica napus ), red salvia (Salvia coccinea ), niger (Guizotia abyssinica ), linseed (Linum usitatissimum ), lupins (Lupinus angustifolius ), and lucerne (Medicago falcata ) were planted in a randomized experiment during Autumn 1998. Upon crop establishment, adults and nymphs of P. plagipennis were released into treatment plots and their numbers were assessed, along with those of their potential prey, throughout the ensuing winter months. Post-release sampling suggested that canola and niger retained a proportion of adult P. plagipennis , while niger, lucerne and canola retained some nymphs. The other plant species failed to support P. plagipennis nymphs and adults postrelease. In the second experiment, niger was compared with two lines of sunflower (Helianthus annus ). Both sunflower lines harboured significantly higher (P < 0.05) densities of P. plagipennis nymphs than did niger. The more successful refuge treatments (sunflower, niger and canola) had an abundance of yellow flowers that were attractive to pollinating insects, which served as supplementary prey on which P. plagipennis were observed to feed. Sunflower and niger also supported high densities of the prey insect Creontiades dilutus (Stal) and provided protective leafy canopies which supplied shelter during the winter months. The potential and limitations for using each plant species as a winter refuge to retain P. plagipennis during winter are discussed.