Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

Root and shoot attributes of indigenous perennial accessions of the wild mungbean (Vigna radiata ssp sublobata)

Root and shoot attributes of 12 indigenous perennial accessions of the wild mungbean (Vigna radiata ssp. sublobata) were evaluated in early and late summer sowings in the field in SE Queensland. All but one of the accessions were obtained from the Townsville-Charters Towers region of NE Queensland. In both sowings, the accessions developed thickened tap and lateral roots, the taproot thickening extending to a depth of 0.20-0.30m below the soil surface, depending on accession. The thickened lateral roots emerged from the taproot within 0.10m of the soil surface, and extended laterally up to 1.10 m, remaining close to the soil surface. Differences among the accessions in gross root morphology and phenology were relatively small. There were differences among the accessions in the production of seed, tuberised root, and recovered total plant biomass. Depending on accession and sowing date, the tuberised roots accounted for up to 31% of recovered plant biomass and among accessions, the root biomass was positively correlated with total plant biomass. In contrast, seed biomass represented only a small proportion of recovered plant biomass, up to a maximum of 14%, depending on accession and sowing date. Among accessions, the proportion of seed biomass tended to be negatively correlated with that of tuber biomass. The perennial trait appears to be unique to Australian accessions of wild mungbean obtained from coastal-subcoastal, speargrass-dominant woodlands of NE Queensland. Although the ecological significance of the trait remains conjectural, field observation indicates that it facilitates rapid plant re-growth following early summer rainfall, especially where dry-season. re has removed previous-season above-ground growth.

Variation among Australian accessions of the wild mungbean (Vigna radiata ssp sublobata) for traits of agronomic, adaptive, or taxonomic interest

The wild mungbean, Vigna radiata ssp. sublobata, is an 'old world' tropical species indigenous throughout the better watered areas of northern Australia. Variation among 115 accessions, mainly from Australia, West Timor, and Papua New Guinea, was evaluated for several diverse traits. The plants were cultivated in the field at 2 sowing dates, at both a tropical and a subtropical location, with 6 accessions from India and a mungbean cultivar for comparison. Substantial variation was identified for traits of potential agronomic, adaptive, or taxonomic interest. For some traits, like phenology, the variation appeared to be systematic, with plausible underlying physiological and/or adaptive explanation. Among accessions, wild type traits, like prostrate habit, more gracile morphology, twining form, and small hard seeds, tended to be associated. There was a general geographic trend for lines collected from locations more remote from where mungbean has historically been cultivated to show greater expression of wild type traits, with few 'traits of domestication' evident in the Australian accessions. Some of the identified variation, e. g. higher seed protein content, hardseededness, and putative disease resistance, may be of value in mungbean variety improvement. A more targetted evaluation of the collection would likely reveal other adaptations, especially tolerance to environmental stresses. As such, the wild accessions are a potentially valuable if under-utilised germplasm resource.

Grain yield components of pearl millet under optimum conditions can be used to identify germplasm with adaptation to and zones

There is evidence that high-tillering, small-panicled pearl millet landraces are better adapted to the severe, unpredictable drought stress of the and zones of NW India than are low-tillering, large-panicled modern varieties, which significantly outyield the landraces under favourable conditions. In this paper, we analyse the relationship of and zone adaptation with the expression, under optimum conditions, of yield components that determine either the potential sink size or the ability to realise this potential. The objective is to test whether selection under optimal conditions for yield components can identify germplasm with adaptation to and zones in NW India, as this could potentially improve the efficiency of pearl millet improvement programs targeting and zones. We use data from an evaluation of over 100 landraces from NW India, conducted for two seasons under both severely drought-stressed and favourable conditions in northwest and south India. Trial average grain yields ranged from 14 g m(-2) to 182 g m(-2). The landraces were grouped into clusters, based on their phenology and yield components as measured under well-watered conditions in south India. In environments without pre-flowering drought stress, tillering type had no effect on potential sink size, but low-tillering, large-panicled landraces yielded significantly more grain, as they were better able to realise their potential sink size. By contrast, in two low-yielding and zone environments which experienced pre-anthesis drought stress, low-fillering, large-panicled landraces yielded significantly less grain than high-tillering ones with comparable phenology, because of both a reduced potential sink size and a reduced ability to realise this potential. The results indicate that the high grain yield of low-tillering, large-panicled landraces under favourable conditions is due to improved partitioning, rather than resource capture. However, under severe stress with restricted assimilate supply, high-tillering, small-panicled landraces are better able to produce a reproductive sink than are large-panicled ones. Selection under optimum conditions for yield components representing a resource allocation pattern favouring high yield under severe drought stress, combined with a capability to increase grain yield if assimilates are available, was more effective than direct selection for grain yield in identifying germplasm adapted to and zones. Incorporating such selection in early generations of variety testing could reduce the reliance on random stress environments. This should improve the efficiency of millet breeding programs targeting and zones. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.