Breastfeeding, menopause, and epithelial ovarian cancer

No previous study has examined the modifying effect of menopausal status on the association between lactation and ovarian cancer risk. We recruited 824 epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 855 community controls in three Australian states, collecting reproductive and lactation histories by means of a contraceptive calendar and pregnancy and breastfeeding record. We report results in women with at least one liveborn infant for unsupplemented breastfeeding, in line with a biological model linking suppression of ovulation to reduction in ovarian cancer risk. We derived odds ratios from multiple logistic regression models including number of liveborn children, age, age at first or last birth, and other potential confounders, overall and by menopausal status. Estimates of relative risk of ovarian cancer per month of full lactation were 0.99 [95% confidence interval(CI) = 0.97-1.00] overall and 1.00 (95% CI = 0.99-1.01) and 0.98 (95% CI = 0.95-1.01) among post- and premenopausal women, respectively. We tailored a lactation variable to the incessant ovulation hypothesis by progressively discounting breastfeeding the longer after birth it occurred, finding odds ratios similar to those for the unmodified duration variable. We found no association of note among postmenopausal women. Breastfeeding seems to be somewhat protective against ovarian cancer, but only before menopause.

True measures of GDP and convergence

Widely used ''purchasing power parity'' comparisons of per capita GDP are not true quantity indexes and are subject to systematic substitution bins. This bias may distort measurement of convergence and divergence. Extending Varian's nonparametric construction of a true index gives the set of true indexes, including the new Ideal Afriat Index. These indexes are utility-consistent and independent of arbitrary reference price vectors. We establish bounds on the dispersion of true multilateral indexes, hence bounds on convergence. International price indexes understate both true GDP dispersion and, where prices are converging over time, the rate of true quantity convergence.

Tubal sterilisation, hysterectomy and decreased risk of ovarian cancer

We have examined the effect of tubal sterilisation and hysterectomy on risk of ovarian cancer in a large case-control study in eastern Australia involving 824 women aged 18-79 years, diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer between 1990 and 1993, and 855 controls randomly selected from the electoral roll. Relative risks for ovarian cancer were estimated using multiple categorical regression to adjust for age, parity, oral contraceptive use and other risk factors. Tubal sterilisation was associated with a 39% reduction in risk of ovarian cancer (RR 0.61, 95% Cl 0.46-0.85) and hysterectomy with a 36% reduction (RR 0.64, 95% Cl 0.48-0.85). Risk remained low 25 years after surgery and was reduced irrespective of sterilisation technique, and estimates were similar among various types of epithelial ovarian cancer. The greatest reduction (74%) was observed among women with primary peritoneal tumours. Pelvic infection and use of vaginal sprays or contraceptive foams were not related to ovarian cancer, while use of talc in the perineal region slightly but significantly increased risk among women with patent fallopian tubes. Reportedly heavy or painful menses, perhaps associated with retrograde flow, were associated with ovarian cancer, and reduction in risk of disease after hysterectomy was greatest among women who had heavy periods. Our findings support the theory that contaminants from the vagina, such as talc, and from the uterus, such as endometrium, gain access to the peritoneal cavity through patent fallopian tubes and may enhance the malignant transformation of ovarian surface epithelium. Surgical tubal occlusion may reduce the risk of ovarian cancer by preventing the access of such agents. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Classical and quantum signatures of competing chi((2)) nonlinearities

We report the observation of the quantum effects of competing chi((2)) nonlinearities. We also report classical signatures of competition, namely, clamping of the second-harmonic power and production of nondegenerate frequencies in the visible. Theory is presented that describes the observations as resulting from competition between various chi((2)) up-conversion and down-conversion processes. We show that competition imposes hitherto unsuspected limits to both power generation and squeezing. The observed signatures are expected to be significant effects in practical systems.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Cigarette smoking and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (Australia)

Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.

Reproduction-related risk factors for mucinous and nonmucinous epithelial ovarian cancer

The proposition that mucinous ovarian cancer has an etiology distinct from that of other histologic types has been evaluated using data from a population-based case-control study of epithelial ovarian cancer conducted in 1990-1993 among Australian women aged 18-79 years. The protective effects of parity and oral contraceptive use were greater in nonmucinous than in mucinous ovarian tumors. However, these differences appeared to be driven largely by the effect of ovulatory life, which was positively associated with nonmucinous tumors only. An association with family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer also appeared to be restricted to nonmucinous cancers. These results lend support to the hypothesis that mucinous and nonmucinous ovarian tumors develop via different causal mechanisms.

Quantum criticality

We investigate the theory of quantum fluctuations in non-equilibrium systems having large critical fluctuations. This allows us to treat the limits imposed by nonlinearities to quantum squeezing and noise reduction, and also to envisage future tests of quantum theory in regions of macroscopic quantum fluctuations. A long-term objective of this research is to identify suitable physical systems in which macroscopic 'Schrodinger cat'-like behaviour may be observed. We investigate two systems in particular of much current experimental interest, namely the degenerate parametric oscillator near threshold, and the evaporatively cooled (BEC). We compare the results obtained in the positive-P representation, as a fully quantum mechanical calculation, with the truncated Wigner phase space equation, also known as semi-classical theory. We show when these results agree and differ in calculations taken beyond the linearized approximation. In the region where the largest quantum fluctuations and Schrodinger cat-like behaviour might be expected, we find that the quantum predictions correspond very closely to the semi-classical theory. Nature abhors observing a Schrodinger car.

Dietary and supplement treatment of iron deficiency results in improvements in general health and fatigue in Australian women of childbearing age

Objective: To examine the effects of iron deficiency and its treatment by iron supplementation or a high iron diet on fatigue and general health measures in women of childbearing age. Design: Randomised controlled trial to compare supplement and dietary treatment of iron deficiency. Subjects: 44 iron deficient (serum ferritin < 15 mug/L or serum ferritin 15-20 mug/L, plus two of the following: serum iron < 10 mu mol/L, total iron binding capacity > 68 mu mol/L or transferrin saturation < 15%) and 22 iron replete (hemoglobin greater than or equal to 120 g/L and serum ferritin > 20 mug/L) women 18 to 50 years of age were matched for age and parity. Interventions: Iron deficient women were randomly allocated to either iron supplementation or a high iron diet for 12 weeks. Measures of Outcome: Iron deficient and iron replete participants had iron studies performed and completed the Piper Fatigue Scale (PFS) and the SF-36 general health and well-being questionnaire at baseline (TO), following the 12 week intervention (TI) and again after a six-month non-intervention phase (T2). The SF-36 includes measures of physical (PCS) and mental (MCS) health and vitality (VT). Results: MCS and VT scores were lower and PFS scores were higher for iron deficient women (diet and supplement groups) than iron replete women at baseline. Both intervention groups showed similar improvements in MCS, VT and PFS scores during the intervention phase, but mean increases in serum ferritin were greater in the supplement than the diet group. PCS scores were not related to iron status. Conclusions: Treatment of iron deficiency with either supplementation or a high iron diet results in improved mental health and decreased fatigue among women of childbearing age.

Dietary treatment of iron deficiency in women of childbearing age

Background: The Australian Iron Status Advisory Panel advocates dietary intervention as the first treatment option for mild iron deficiency [serum ferritin (SF) = 10-15 mug/L]. However, there appear to be no studies on the efficacy of dietary treatment for iron deficiency. Objective: We compared the effects of iron supplementation and of a high-iron diet on serum ferritin (SF) and hemoglobin in iron-deficient women of childbearing age. Design: Forty-four iron-deficient women (SF < 15 mug/L or SF = 15-20 mug/L plus serum iron < 10 mu mol/L and total-iron-binding capacity > 68 mu mol/L) and 22 iron-replete women (hemoglobin greater than or equal to 120 g/L and SF > 20 mug/L) matched for age and parity categories were enrolled and completed 7-d weighed food records at baseline. The iron-deficient women were randomly allocated to receive iron supplementation (105 mg/d; supplement group) or a high-iron diet (recommended intake of absorbable iron: 2.25 mg/d; diet group) for 12 wk. Hematologic and dietary assessments were repeated at the end of the intervention and again after a 6-mo follow-up. Results: Mean SF in the supplement group increased from 9.0 +/- 3.9 mug/L at baseline to 24.8 +/- 10.0 mug/L after the intervention and remained stable during follow-up (24.2 +/- 9.8 mug/L whereas the diet group had smaller increases during the intervention (8.9 +/- 3.1 to 11.0 +/- 5.9 mug/L) but continued to improve during follow-up (to 15.2 +/- 9.5 mug/L). Mean hemoglobin tended to improve in both intervention groups, but the change was only significant in the supplement group. Conclusions: In iron-deficient women of childbearing age, a high-iron diet produced smaller increases in SF than did iron supplementation but resulted in continued improvements in iron status during a 6-mo follow-up.

Tidal effects on groundwater dynamics in unconfined aquifers

The variation of seawater level resulting from tidal fluctuations is usually neglected in regional groundwater flow studies. Although the tidal oscillation is damped near the shoreline, there is a quasi-steady-slate rise in the mean water-table position, which may have an influence on regional groundwater flow. In this paper the effects of tidal fluctuations on groundwater hydraulics are investigated using a variably saturated numerical model that includes the effects of a realistic mild beach slope, seepage face and the unsaturated zone. In particular the impact of these factors on the velocity field in the aquifer is assessed. Simulations show that the tidal fluctuation has substantial consequences for the local velocity field in the vicinity of the exit face, which affects the nearshore migration of contaminant in coastal aquifers. An overheight in the water table as a result of the tidal fluctuation is observed anti this has a significant effect on groundwater discharge to the sea when the landward boundary condition is a constant water level. The effect of beach slope is very significant and simplifying the problem by considering a vertical beach face causes serious errors in predicting the water-table position and the groundwater flux. For media with a high effective capillary fringe, the moisture retained above the water table is important in determining the effects of the tidal fluctuations. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The urethral pressure profile and ultrasound imaging of the lower urinary tract

In a prospective study 105 patients with symptoms of stress incontinence underwent video-urodynamic testing, including resting urethral pressure profilometry and translabial ultrasound. The urethral pressure profile (UPP) included maximum urethral closure pressure (MUCP), functional length (FL) and area under the curve (AUC). Ultrasound parameters included urethral thickness, urethral rotation and bladder neck descent, as well as funneling/opening of the internal urethral meatus on Valsalva maneuver. Levator contraction strength was assessed measuring the cranioventral displacement of the internal meatus. Negative correlations between UPP data and age, parity and previous surgery were observed which were consistent with literature data. There was a positive correlation :between the urethral AP diameter on ultrasound and the MUCP, which agrees with reports showing reduced sphincter thickness or volume in stress-incontinent women. Hypermobility on ultrasound did not correlate with UPP data. However, a lower MUCP correlated with extensive opening of the bladder neck. Finally, there was a trend towards poorer pelvic floor function with lower MUCP measurements.

Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Riddling and invariance for discontinuous maps preserving Lebesgue measure

In this paper we use the mixture of topological and measure-theoretic dynamical approaches to consider riddling of invariant sets for some discontinuous maps of compact regions of the plane that preserve two-dimensional Lebesgue measure. We consider maps that are piecewise continuous and with invertible except on a closed zero measure set. We show that riddling is an invariant property that can be used to characterize invariant sets, and prove results that give a non-trivial decomposion of what we call partially riddled invariant sets into smaller invariant sets. For a particular example, a piecewise isometry that arises in signal processing (the overflow oscillation map), we present evidence that the closure of the set of trajectories that accumulate on the discontinuity is fully riddled. This supports a conjecture that there are typically an infinite number of periodic orbits for this system.