Epidemiological modelling (including economic modelling) and its role in preventive drug therapy

In contrast to curative therapies, preventive therapies are administered to largely healthy individuals over long periods. The risk-benefit and cost-benefit ratios are more likely to be unfavourable, making treatment decisions difficult. Drug trials provide insufficient information for treatment decisions, as they are conducted on highly selected populations over short durations, estimate only relative benefits of treatment and offer little information on risks and costs. Epidemiological modelling is a method of combining evidence from observational epidemiology and clinical trials to assist in clinical and health policy decision-making. It can estimate absolute benefits, risks and costs of long-term preventive strategies, and thus allow their precise targeting to individuals for whom they are safest and most cost-effective. Epidemiological modelling also allows explicit information about risks and benefits of therapy to be presented to patients, facilitating informed decision-making.

Human response to environmental noise: The role of perceived control

Negative impacts of noise exposure on health and performance may result in part from learned helplessness, the syndrome of deficits typically produced by exposure to uncontrollable events. People may perceive environmental noise to be uncontrollable, and several effects of noise exposure appear to parallel learned helplessness deficits. In the present socioacoustic survey (N = 1,015), perceived control over aircraft noise correlated negatively with some effects of noise (though not others). Furthermore, these effects were better predicted by perceived control than by noise level. These observational data support the claim that learned helplessness contributes to the effects of noise exposure.

Factors associated with rural practice among Australian-trained general practitioners

Objective: To determine the factors associated with general practitioners' current practice location, with particular emphasis on rural location. Design: Observational, retrospective, case-control study using a self-administered questionnaire. Setting: Australian general practices in December 2000. Participants: 2414 Australian-trained rural and urban GPs. Main outcome measure: Current urban or rural practice location. Results: For Australia as a whole, rural GPs were more likely to be male (odds ratio [OR], 1.42; 95% CI, 1.17-1.73), Australian-born (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.55-2.45), and to report attending a rural primary school for some (OR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.69-2.89) or all (OR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.94-4.00) of their primary schooling. Rural GPs' partners or spouses were also more likely to report some (OR, 2.75; 95% CI, 2.07-3.66) or all (OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 2.02-4.05) rural primary schooling. A rural background in both GP and partner produced the highest likelihood of rural practice (OR, 6.28; 95% CI, 4.26-9.25). For individual jurisdictions, a trend towards more rural GPs being men was only significant in Tasmania. In all jurisdictions except Tasmania and the Northern Territory, rural GPs were more likely to be Australian-born. Conclusions: GPs' and their partners' rural background (residence and primary and secondary schooling) influences choice of practice location, with partners' background appearing to exert more influence.

Choking deaths: the role of antipsychotic medication

Background An increased risk of choking associated with antipsychotic medication has been repeatedly postulated. Aims To examine this association in a large number of cases of choking deaths. Method Cases of individuals who had died because of choking were linked with a case register recording contacts with public mental health services. The actual and expected rates of psychiatric disorder and the presence of psychotropic medication in post-mortem blood samples were compared. Results The 70 people who had choked to death were over 20 times more likely to have been treated previously for schizophrenia. They were also more likely to have had a prior organic psychiatric syndrome. The risk for those receiving thioridazine or lithium was. respectively, 92 times and 30 times greater than expected. Other antipsychotic and psychotropic drugs were not over-represented. Conclusions The increased risk of death in people with schizophrenia may be a combination of inherent predispositions and the use of specific antipsychotic drugs. The increased risk of choking in those with organic psychiatric syndromes is consistent with the consequences of compromised neurological competence. Declaration of interest None.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

Translational incorporation of L-3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine into proteins

An Escherichia coli cell-free transcription/translation system was used to explore the high-level incorporation Of L-3,4-dihydroxyphenylalanine (DOPA) into proteins by replacing tyrosine with DOPA in the reaction mixtures. ESI-MS showed specific incorporation of DOPA in place of tyrosine. More than 90% DOPA incorporation at each tyrosine site was achieved, allowing the recording of clean N-15-HSQC NMR spectra. A redox-staining method specific for DOPA was shown to provide a sensitive and generally applicable method for assessing the cell-free production of proteins. Of four proteins produced in soluble form in the presence of tyrosine, two resulted in insoluble aggregates in the presence of high levels of DOPA. DOPA has been found in human proteins, often in association with various disease states that implicate protein aggregation and/or misfolding. Our results suggest that misfolded and aggregated proteins may result, in principle, from ribosome-mediated misincorporation of intracellular DOPA accumulated due to oxidative stress. High-yield cell-free protein expression systems are uniquely suited to obtain rapid information on solubility and aggregation of nascent polypeptide chains.

Pathology reporting of breast cancer: trends in 1989-1999, following the introduction of mammographic screening in Western Australia

Background: A survey of pathology reporting of breast cancer in Western Australia in 1989 highlighted the need for improvement. The current study documents (1) changes in pathology reporting from 1989 to 1999 and (2) changes in patterns of histopathological prognostic indicators for breast cancer following introduction of mammographic screening in 1989. Methods: Data concerning all breast cancer cases reported in Western Australia in 1989, 1994 and 1999 were retrieved using the State Cancer Registry, Hospital Morbidity data system, and pathology laboratory records. Results: Pathology reports improved in quality during the decade surveyed. For invasive carcinoma, tumour size was not recorded in 1.2% of pathology reports in 1999 compared with 16.1% in 1989 (rho<0.001). Corresponding figures for other prognostic factors were: tumour grade 3.3% and 51.6% (rho<0.001), tumour type 0.2% and 4.1% (rho<0.001), vascular invasion 3.7% and 70.9% (rho<0.001), and lymph node status 1.9% and 4.5% (rho=0.023). In 1999, 5.9% of reports were not in a synoptic/checklist format, whereas all reports were descriptive in 1989 (rho<0.001). For the population as a whole, the proportion of invasive carcinomas <1 cm was 20.9% in 1999 compared with 14.5% in 1989 (rho<0.001); for tumours <2 cm the corresponding figures were 65.4% and 59.7% (rho=0.013). In 1999, 30.5% of tumours were histologically well-differentiated compared with 10.6% in 1989 (rho<0.001), and 61.7% were lymph node negative in 1999 compared with 57.1% in 1989 (rho=0.006). Pure ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) constituted 10.9% and 7.9% of total cases of breast carcinoma in 1999 and 1989, respectively (rho=0.01). Conclusions: Quality of pathology reporting improved markedly over the period, in parallel with adoption of stanclardised synoptic pathology reports. By 1999, recording of important prognostic information was almost complete. Frequency of favourable prognostic factors generally increased over time, reflecting expected effects of mammographic screening.

Achieving the millennium development goals for health - Cost effectiveness analysis of strategies for. maternal and neonatal health in developing countries

Objective To determine the costs and benefits of interventions for maternal and newborn health to assess the appropriateness of current strategies and guide future plans to attain the millennium development goals. Design Cost effectiveness analysis. Setting Two regions classified by the World Health Organization according to their epidemiological grouping: Afr-E, those countries in sub-Saharan Africa with very high adult and high child mortality, and Sear-D, comprising countries in South East Asia with high adult and high child mortality. Data sources Effectiveness data from several sources, including trials, observational studies, and expert opinion. For resource inputs, quantifies came from WHO guidelines, literature, and expert opinion, and prices from the WHO choosing interventions that are cost effective database. Main outcome measures Cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted in year 2000 international dollars. Results The most cost effective mix of interventions was similar in Afr-E and Sear-D. These were the community based newborn care package, followed by antenatal care (tetanus toxoid, screening for pre-eclampsia, screening and treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria and syphilis); skilled attendance at birth, offering first level maternal and neonatal care around childbirth; and emergency obstetric and neonatal care around and after birth. Screening and treatment of maternal syphilis, community based management of neonatal pneumonia, and steroids given during the antenatal period were relatively less cost effective in Sear-D. Scaling up all of the included interventions to 95% coverage would halve neonatal and maternal deaths. Conclusion Preventive interventions at the community level for newborn babies and at the primary care level for mothers and newborn babies are extremely cost effective, but the millennium development goals for maternal and child health will not be achieved without universal access to clinical services as well.

Spatial distribution of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell (Hemiptera: Coccidae), on umbrella trees in south-eastern Queensland: The pattern of outbreaks

The spatial pattern of outbreaks of pink wax scale, Ceroplastes rubens Maskell, within and among umbrella trees, Schefflera actinophylla (Endl.), in southeastern Queensland was investigated. Pink wax scale was common on S. actinophylla, with approximately 84% of trees positive for scale and 14% of bees recording outbreak densities exceeding 0.4 adults per leaflet. Highly aggregated distributions of C. rubens occur within and among umbrella trees. Clumped distributions within trees appear to result from variable birth and death rates and limited movement of first instar crawlers. The patchy distribution of pink wax scale among trees is probably a consequence of variation in dispersal success of scale, host and environmental suitability for establishment and rates of biological control. Pink wax scale was more prevalent on trees in roadside positions and in exposed situations, indicating that such trees are more suitable and/or susceptible to scale colonisation.

Odorant-induced currents in intact patches from rat olfactory receptor neurons: Theory and experiment

Odorant-induced currents in mammalian olfactory receptor neurons have proved difficult to obtain reliably using conventional whole-cell recording. By using a mathematical model of the electrical circuit of the patch and rest-of-cell, we demonstrate how cell-attached patch measurements can be used to quantitatively analyze responses to odorants or a high (100 mM) K+ solution. High K+ induced an immediate current flux from cell to pipette, which was modeled as a depolarization of similar to 52 mV, close to that expected from the Nernst equation (56 mV), and no change in the patch conductance. By contrast, a cocktail of cAMP-stimulating odorants induced a current flux from pipette into cell following a significant (4-10 s) delay. This was modeled as an average patch conductance increase of 36 pS and a depolarization of 13 mV, Odorant-induced single channels had a conductance of 16 pS. In cells bathed with no Mg2+ and 0.25 mM Ca2+, odorants induced a current flow from cell to pipette, which was modeled as a patch conductance increase of similar to 115 pS and depolarization of similar to 32 mV, All these results are consistent with cAMP-gated cation channels dominating the odorant response, This approach, which provides useful estimates of odorant-induced voltage and conductance changes, is applicable to similar measurements in any small cells.

Rapid increases in cytokinin concentration in lateral buds of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L) during release of apical dominance

We examined the role of cytokinins (CKs) in release of apical dominance in lateral buds of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.). Shoot decapitation or application of CKs (benzyladenine, zeatin or dihydrozeatin) stimulated rapid bud growth. Time-lapse video recording revealed growth initiation within 2 h of application of 200 pmol benzyladenine or within 3 h of decapitation. Endogenous CK content in buds changed little in the first 2 h after shoot decapitation, but significantly increased by 6 h, somewhat later than the initiation of bud growth. The main elevated CK was zeatin riboside, whose content per bud increased 7-fold by 6 h and 25-fold by 24 h. Lesser changes were found in amounts of zeatin and isopentenyl adenine CKs. We have yet to distinguish whether these CKs are imported from the roots via the xylem stream or are synthesised in situ in the buds, but CKs may be part of an endogenous signal involved in lateral bud growth stimulation following shoot decapitation. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed report of CK levels in buds themselves during release of apical dominance.

Development, reliability, and concurrent validity of the modified inventory of potential reconstructive needs

Documentation of burn sequelae can be a difficult and time-consuming task. To date a reliable and systematic format for recording postburn trauma is lacking. The purpose of this research was two-fold: first, to develop a Modified Inventory of Potential Reconstructive Needs from the original Inventory of Potential Reconstructive Needs to allow methodical documentation of functional and cosmetic burn sequelae in all body surface areas of children with burns and, second, to establish interrater reliability and concurrent validity of the instrument, thus allowing its clinical application. Two raters scored the Modified Inventory of Potential Reconstructive Needs on 41 children with a range of burns types and severity. Excellent interrater reliability was demonstrated for both total (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.996) and subsection inventory scores. Concurrent validity was also established with total scores showing strong positive correlations (0.73-0.76) with three indicators of burn severity. These findings provide initial support for the tool's clinical applicability, particularly in relation to rehabilitative planning and documentation.

Maintaining clearance in peritoneal dialysis

Numerous studies have now established that there is a strong association between small solute clearance and improved outcomes in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Preservation of both renal and peritoneal clearances is therefore of paramount importance, although very few trials have satisfactorily addressed this critical issue. Observational studies have suggested that the groups most at risk of loss of residual renal function are women, non-whites, diabetic patients, patients with congestive cardiac failure, patients who experience frequent episodes of peritonitis and, possibly, patients treated with automated PD (APD). There have been no controlled trials of renoprotective therapies in PD patients, but reasonable strategies for preventing renal functional decline include avoidance of nephrotoxins and infection, maintenance of adequate blood pressure, abstinence from smoking and possibly administration of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or calcium channel blockers. In contrast, peritoneal small solute removal can be maximized by augmenting fill volume, increasing exchange frequency and using either long-dwell continuous ambulatory PD (CAPD) or short-dwell (APD) therapies to suit individual patients' transport characteristics. Tidal PD may additionally increase solute clearance, although studies have reported conflicting findings. Preservation of membrane function may be achieved by minimizing episodes of peritonitis and avoiding hypertonic glucose exchanges. Newer peritoneal dialysates, such as icodextrin, amino acids, bicarbonate-buffered solutions and aldehyde-poor fluids, are more biocompatible in experimental models of PD, but their long-term clinical safety and efficacy have not yet been established by clinical trials. Moreover, no trials have demonstrated an independent effect of peritoneal clearance on patient outcomes. Further studies determining the relative value of renal and peritoneal clearances are therefore urgently required in order to optimize dialytic adequacy for PD patients.

The validity of self-reported energy intake as determined using the doubly labelled water technique

In the 1980s the development of the doubly labelled water (DLW) technique made it possible to determine the validity of dietary assessment methods using external, independent markers of intake in free-living populations. Since then, the accuracy of self-reported energy intake (EI) has been questioned on a number of occasions as under-reporting has been found to be prevalent in many different populations. This paper is a review of investigations using the DLW technique in conjunction with self-reported EI measures in groups including adults, children and adolescents, obese persons, athletes, military personnel and trekking explorers. In studies where a person other than the subject is responsible for recording dietary intake, such as parents of young children, EI generally corresponds to DLW determined energy expenditure. However, in instances where the subjects themselves report their intake, EI is generally under-reported when compared with energy expenditure. It was originally believed that this phenomenon of under-reporting was linked to increased adiposity and body size, however, it is now apparent that other factors, such as dietary restraint and socio-economic status, are also involved. This paper therefore aims to present a more comprehensive picture of under-reporting by tying in the findings of many DLW studies with other studies focusing particularly on the characteristics and mechanisms for under-reporting. Awareness of these characteristics and mechanisms will enable researchers to obtain more accurate self-reports of EI using all dietary recording techniques.

Genetic influence on ERP slow wave measures of working memory

Individual differences in the variance of event-related potential (ERP) slow wave (SW) measures were examined. SW was recorded at prefrontal and parietal sites during memory and sensory trials of a delayed-response task in 391 adolescent twin pairs. Familial resemblance was identified and there was a strong suggestion of genetic influence. A common genetic factor influencing memory and sensory SW was identified at the prefrontal site (accounting for an estimated 35%-37% of the reliable variance) and at the parietal site (51%-52% of the reliable variance). Remaining reliable variance was influenced by unique environmental factors. Measurement error accounted for 24% to 30% of the total variance of each variable. The results show genetic independence for recording site, but not trial type, and suggest that the genetic factors identified relate more directly to brain structures, as defined by the cognitive functions they support, than to the cognitive networks that link them.