Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Relationship between thirty post-thaw spermatozoal characteristics and the field fertility of 11 high-use Australian dairy AI sires

This study determined the relationship between two measures of field fertility of I I high-use Australian artificial insemination (AI) dairy bulls and thirty standard laboratory assessments of spermatozoal post-thaw viability. The two measures of field fertility used, conception rates (cCR) and non-return rates (cNRR), were both corrected for all major non-bull variables. Sperm viability assessments were conducted on semen collected within the same season as that used to derive the field fertility estimates. These assessments measured sperm concentration, motility, morphology and membrane integrity at thawing, after 2 h incubation and after the swim-up sperm selection procedure. Derivations of these measures and in vitro embryo fertilizing and developmental capacity were also determined. The Genstat Statistical Package [Genstat 5 Release 4.2 Reference Manual, VSN International, Oxford, 20001 was used to conduct an analysis of variance on the viability parameters across semen straws and bulls, and to calculate the strength of correlation between each semen parameter, cNRR and cCR in a correlation matrix. Step forward multiple regression identified the combination of semen parameters that were most highly correlated with cCR and with cNRR. The sperm parameters identified as being most predictive of cCR were the percentage of morphologically normal sperm immediately post-thaw (zeroNorm), the number of morphologically normal sperm after the swim-up procedure (nSuNorm), and the rate of zygote cleavage in vitro (Clv); the predictive equation formed by these parameters accounted for 70% of variance. The predictive equation produced for cNRR contained the variables zeroNorm, the proportion of membrane intact sperm after 2 h incubation at 37 degreesC (twoMem) and Clv and accounted for 76.5% of the variation. ZeroNorm was found to be consistent across straws and semen batches within-bull and the sperm parameter with the strongest individual predictive capacity for both cCR (P = 0.1) and cNRR (P = 0.001). Post-thaw sperm parameters can be used to predict field fertility of Australian dairy sires; the calculated predictive equations are particularly useful for identifying and monitoring bulls of very high and very low potential fertility within a group. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A broad-scale analysis of links between coastal fisheries production and mangrove extent: A case-study for northeastern Australia

The paradigm that mangroves are critical for sustaining production in coastal fisheries is widely accepted, but empirical evidence has been tenuous. This study showed that links between mangrove extent and coastal fisheries production could be detected for some species at a broad regional scale (1000s of kilometres) on the east coast of Queensland, Australia. The relationships between catch-per-unit-effort for different commercially caught species in four fisheries (trawl, line, net and pot fisheries) and mangrove characteristics, estimated from Landsat images were examined using multiple regression analyses. The species were categorised into three groups based on information on their life history characteristics, namely mangrove-related species (banana prawns Penaeus merguiensis, mud crabs Scylla serrata and barramundi Lates calcarifer), estuarine species (tiger prawns Penaeus esculentus and Penaeus semisulcatus, blue swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus and blue threadfin Eleutheronema tetradactylum) and offshore species (coral trout Plectropomus spp.). For the mangrove-related species, mangrove characteristics such as area and perimeter accounted for most of the variation in the model; for the non-mangrove estuarine species, latitude was the dominant parameter but some mangrove characteristics (e.g. mangrove perimeter) also made significant contributions to the models. In contrast, for the offshore species, latitude was the dominant variable, with no contribution from mangrove characteristics. This study also identified that finer scale spatial data for the fisheries, to enable catch information to be attributed to a particular catchment, would help to improve our understanding of relationships between mangroves and fisheries production. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive phase measurements in linear optical quantum computation

Photon counting induces an effective non-linear optical phase shift in certain states derived by linear optics from single photons. Although this non-linearity is non-deterministic, it is sufficient in principle to allow scalable linear optics quantum computation (LOQC). The most obvious way to encode a qubit optically is as a superposition of the vacuum and a single photon in one mode-so-called 'single-rail' logic. Until now this approach was thought to be prohibitively expensive (in resources) compared to 'dual-rail' logic where a qubit is stored by a photon across two modes. Here we attack this problem with real-time feedback control, which can realize a quantum-limited phase measurement on a single mode, as has been recently demonstrated experimentally. We show that with this added measurement resource, the resource requirements for single-rail LOQC are not substantially different from those of dual-rail LOQC. In particular, with adaptive phase measurements an arbitrary qubit state a alpha/0 > + beta/1 > can be prepared deterministically.

Interindividual Differences in Leg Muscle Mass and Pyruvate Kinase Activity Correlate with Interindividual Differences in Jumping Performance of Hyla multilineata

Frog jumping is an excellent model system for examining the structural basis of interindividual variation in burst locomotor performance. Some possible factors that affect jump performance, such as total body size, hindlimb length, muscle mass, and muscle mechanical and biochemical properties, were analysed at the interindividual (intraspecies) level in the tree frog Hyla multilineata. The aim of this study was to determine which of these physiological and anatomical variables both vary between individuals and are correlated with interindividual variation in jump performance. The model produced via stepwise linear regression analysis of absolute data suggested that 62% of the interindividual variation in maximum jump distance could be explained by a combination of interindividual variation in absolute plantaris muscle mass, total hindlimb muscle mass ( excluding plantaris muscle), and pyruvate kinase activity. When body length effects were removed, multiple regression indicated that the same independent variables explained 43% of the residual interindividual variation in jump distance. This suggests that individuals with relatively large jumping muscles and high pyruvate kinase activity for their body size achieved comparatively large maximal jump distances for their body size.

Water quality condition and trend in North Queensland waterways

The Queensland Environmental Protection Agency monitored water quality at 133 sites in North Queensland waterways between Cooktown and Bundaburg from 1992 to 2001. Condition of the waterways was rated by comparing recent data with the Queensland Water Quality Guidelines. Long-term trends were analysed using a censored regression technique that incorporates the effects of flow, temperature, seasonality and allows for long-term non-linear trends. Many sites were in good condition; those in poor condition were usually impacted by point source discharges; those in moderate condition were usually impacted by agricultural land use. There were no consistent long-term trends across the whole region. Recommendations for future programs include incorporating pressure indicators, ensuring high standards of quality assurance, including covariates such as rainfall in trend assessment and continuing programs over more than 10 years to allow detection of trends due to changes in land-use. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical solutions of linear finite- and small-strain one-dimensional consolidation

Analytical solutions are presented for linear finite-strain one-dimensional consolidation of initially unconsolidated soil layers with surcharge loading for both one- and two-way drainage. These solutions complement earlier solutions for initially unconsolidated soil layers without surcharge and initially normally consolidated soil layers with surcharge. Small-strain solutions for the consolidation of initially unconsolidated soil layers with surcharge loading are also presented, and the relationship between the earlier solutions for initially unconsolidated soil without surcharge and the corresponding small-strain solutions, which was not addressed in the earlier work, is clarified. The new solutions for initially unconsolidated soil with surcharge loading can be applied to the analysis of low stress consolidation tests and to the partial validation of numerical solutions of non-linear finite-strain consolidation. They also clarify a formerly perplexing aspect of finite-strain solution charts first noted in numerical solutions. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Genetic and environmental influences on extreme personality dispositions in adolescent female twins

Background: The objective was to determine whether the pattern of environmental and genetic influences on deviant personality scores differs from that observed for the normative range of personality, comparing results in adolescent and adult female twins. Methods: A sample of 2,796 female adolescent twins ascertained from birth records provided Junior Eysenck Personality Questionnaire data. The average age of the sample was 17.0 years ( S. D. 2.3). Genetic analyses of continuous and extreme personality scores were conducted. Results were compared for 3,178 adult female twins. Results: Genetic analysis of continuous traits in adolescent female twins were similar to findings in adult female twins, with genetic influences accounting for between 37% and 44% of the variance in Extraversion (Ex), Neuroticism (N), and Social Non-Conformity (SNC), with significant evidence of shared environmental influences (19%) found only for SNC in the adult female twins. Analyses of extreme personality characteristics, defined categorically, in the adolescent data and replicated in the adult female data, yielded estimates for high N and high SNC that deviated substantially (p < .05) from those obtained in the continuous trait analyses, and provided suggestive evidence that shared family environment may play a more important role in determining personality deviance than has been previously found when personality is viewed continuously. However, multiple-threshold models that assumed the same genetic and environmental determinants of both normative range variation and extreme scores gave acceptable fits for each personality dimension. Conclusions: The hypothesis of differences in genetic or environmental factors responsible for N and SNC among female twins with scores in the extreme versus normative ranges was partially supported, but not for Ex.

Elasticity, yielding and episodicity in simple models of mantle convection

We explore the implications of refinements in the mechanical description of planetary constituents on the convection modes predicted by finite-element simulations. The refinements consist in the inclusion of incremental elasticity, plasticity (yielding) and multiple simultaneous creep mechanisms in addition to the usual visco-plastic models employed in the context of unified plate-mantle models. The main emphasis of this paper rests on the constitutive and computational formulation of the model. We apply a consistent incremental formulation of the non-linear governing equations avoiding the computationally expensive iterations that are otherwise necessary to handle the onset of plastic yield. In connection with episodic convection simulations, we point out the strong dependency of the results on the choice of the initial temperature distribution. Our results also indicate that the inclusion of elasticity in the constitutive relationships lowers the mechanical energy associated with subduction events.

Bifurcations in the non-dissipative dynamics of ultra cold atoms

We present the first experimental observation of several bifurcations in a controllable non-linear Hamiltonian system. Dynamics of cold atoms are used to test predictions of non-linear, non-dissipative Hamiltonian dynamics.

Computationally efficient solution techniques for adsorption problems involving steep gradients in bidisperse particles

A piecewise uniform fitted mesh method turns out to be sufficient for the solution of a surprisingly wide variety of singularly perturbed problems involving steep gradients. The technique is applied to a model of adsorption in bidisperse solids for which two fitted mesh techniques, a fitted-mesh finite difference method (FMFDM) and fitted mesh collocation method (FMCM) are presented. A combination (FMCMD) of FMCM and the DASSL integration package is found to be most effective in solving the problems. Numerical solutions (FMFDM and FMCMD) were found to match the analytical solution when the adsorption isotherm is linear, even under conditions involving steep gradients for which global collocation fails. In particular, FMCMD is highly efficient for macropore diffusion control or micropore diffusion control. These techniques are simple and there is no limit on the range of the parameters. The techniques can be applied to a variety of adsorption and desorption problems in bidisperse solids with non-linear isotherm and for arbitrary particle geometry.

Fluctuations in heroin purity and the incidence of fatal heroin overdose

In order to determine the role played by heroin purity in fatal heroin overdoses, time series analyses were conducted on the purity of street heroin seizures in south western Sydney and overdose fatalities in that region. A total of 322 heroin samples were analysed in fortnightly periods between February 1993 to January 1995. A total of 61 overdose deaths occurred in the region in the study period. Cross correlation plots revealed a significant correlation of 0.57 at time lag zero between mean purity of heroin samples per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. Similarly, there was a significant correlation of 0.50 at time lag zero between the highest heroin purity per fortnight and number of overdose fatalities. The correlation between range of heroin purity and number of deaths per fortnight was 0.40. A simultaneous multiple regression on scores adjusted for first order correlation indicated both the mean level of heroin purity and the range of heroin purity were independent predictors of the number of deaths per fortnight. The results indicate that the occurrence of overdose fatalities was moderately associated with both the average heroin purity and the range of heroin purity over the study period. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Placental growth hormone (GH), GH-binding protein, and insulin-like growth factor axis in normal, growth-retarded, and diabetic pregnancies: Correlations with fetal growth

We previously described significant changes in GH-binding protein (GHBP) in pathological human pregnancy. There was a substantial elevation of GHBP in cases of noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and a reduction in insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. GHBP has the potential to modulate the proportion of free placental GH (PGH) and hence the impact on the maternal GH/insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) axis, fetal growth, and maternal glycemic status. The present study was undertaken to investigate the relationship among glycemia, GHBP, and PGH during pregnancy and to assess the impact of GHBP on the concentration of free PGH. We have extended the analysis of specimens to include measurements of GHBP, PGH, IGF-I, IGF-II, IGF-binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1), IGFSP-2, and IGFBP-3 and have related these to maternal characteristics, fetal growth, and glycemia. The simultaneous measurement of GHBP and PGH has for the first time allowed calculation of the free component of PGH and correlation of the free component to indexes of fetal growth and other endocrine markers. PGH, free PGH, IGF-I, and IGF-II were substantially decreased in IUGR at 28-30 weeks gestation (K28) and 36-38 weeks gestation (K36). The mean concentration (+/-SEM) of total PGH increased significantly from K28 to K36 (30.0 +/- 2.2 to 50.7 +/- 6.2 ng/mL; n = 40), as did the concentration of free PGH (23.4 +/- 2.3 to 43.7 +/- 6.0 ng/mL; n = 38). The mean percentage of free PGH was significantly less in IUGR than in normal subjects (67% vs. 79%; P < 0.01). Macrosomia was associated with an increase in these parameters that did not reach statistical significance. Multiple regression analysis revealed that PGH/IGF-I and IGFBP-5 account for 40% of the variance in birth weight. IGFBP-3 showed a significant correlation with IGF-I, IGF-II, and free and total PGK at K28 and K36. Noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus patients had a lower mean percentage of free PGH (65%; P < 0.01), and insulin-dependent diabetics had a higher mean percentage of free PGH (87%; P < 0.01) than normal subjects. Mean postprandial glucose at K28 correlated positively with PGH and free PGH (consistent with the hyperglycemic action of GH). GHBP correlated negatively with both postprandial and fasting glucose. Although GHBP correlated negatively with PGH (r = -0.52; P

Quantum chaos in atom optics

I shall discuss the quantum and classical dynamics of a class of nonlinear Hamiltonian systems. The discussion will be restricted to systems with one degree of freedom. Such systems cannot exhibit chaos, unless the Hamiltonians are time dependent. Thus we shall consider systems with a potential function that has a higher than quadratic dependence on the position and, furthermore, we shall allow the potential function to be a periodic function of time. This is the simplest class of Hamiltonian system that can exhibit chaotic dynamics. I shall show how such systems can be realized in atom optics, where very cord atoms interact with optical dipole potentials of a far-off resonance laser. Such systems are ideal for quantum chaos studies as (i) the energy of the atom is small and action scales are of the order of Planck's constant, (ii) the systems are almost perfectly isolated from the decohering effects of the environment and (iii) optical methods enable exquisite time dependent control of the mechanical potentials seen by the atoms.

Variation in mortality rates in Australia: correlation with Indigenous status, remoteness and socio-economic deprivation

Background The aim of this study was to study ecological correlations between age-adjusted all-cause mortality rates in Australian statistical divisions and (1) the proportion of residents that self-identify as Indigenous, (2) remoteness, and (3) socio-economic deprivation. Methods All-cause mortality rates for 57 statistical divisions were calculated and directly standardized to the 1997 Australian population in 5-year age groups using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data. The proportion of residents who self-identified as Indigenous was obtained from the 1996 Census. Remoteness was measured using ARIA (Accessibility and Remoteness Index for Australia) values. Socioeconomic deprivation was measured using SEIFA (Socio-Economic index for Australia) values from the ABS. Results Age-standardized all-cause mortality varies twofold from 5.7 to 11.3 per 1000 across Australian statistical divisions. Strongest correlation was between Indigenous status and mortality (r = 0.69, p < 0.001). correlation between remoteness and mortality was modest (r = 0.39, p = 0.002) as was correlation between socio-economic deprivation and mortality (r = -0.42, p = 0.001). Excluding the three divisions with the highest mortality, a multiple regression model using the logarithm of the adjusted mortality rate as the dependent variable showed that the partial correlation (and hence proportion of the variance explained) for Indigenous status was 0.03 (9 per cent; p = 0.03), for SEIFA score was -0.17 (3 per cent; p = 0.22); and for remoteness was -0.22 (5 per cent; p = 0.13). Collectively, the three variables studied explain 13 per cent of the variability in mortality. Conclusions Ecological correlation exists between all-cause mortality, Indigenous status, remoteness and disadvantage across Australia. The strongest correlation is with indigenous status, and correlation with all three characteristics is weak when the three statistical divisions with the highest mortality rates are excluded. intervention targeted at these three statistical divisions could reduce much of the variability in mortality in Australia.