A clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after dobutamine echocardiograms

OBJECTIVES We sought to develop and validate a risk score combining both clinical and dobutamine echocardiographic (DbE) features in 4,890 patients who underwent DbE at three expert laboratories and were followed for death or myocardial infarction for up to five years. BACKGROUND In contrast to exercise scores, no score exists to combine clinical, stress, and echocardiographic findings with DbE. METHODS Dobutamine echocardiography was performed for evaluation of known or suspected coronary artery disease in 3,156 patients at two sites in the U.S. After exclusion of patients with incomplete follow-up, 1,456 DbEs were randomly selected to develop a multivariate model for prediction of events. After simplification of each model for clinical use, the models were internally validated in the remaining DbE patients in the same series and externally validated in 1,733 patients in an independent series. RESULTS The following score was derived from regression models in the modeling group (160 events): DbE risk = (age (.) 0.02) + (heart failure + rate-pressure product <15,000) (.) 0.4 + (ischemia + scar) (.) 0.6. The presence of each variable was scored as 1 and its absence scored as 0, except for age (continuous variable). Using cutoff values of 1.2 and 2.6, patients were classified into groups with five-year event-free survivals >95%, 75% to 95%, and <75%. Application of the score in the internal validation group (265 events) gave equivalent results, as did its application in the external validation group (494 events, C index = 0.72). CONCLUSIONS A risk score based on clinical and echocardiographic data may be used to quantify the risk of events in patients undergoing DbE. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Use of tissue Doppler imaging to facilitate the prediction of events in patients with abnormal left ventricular function dobutamine echocardiography

The extent of abnormality in patients with positive do-butamine echocardiography (DE) is predictive of risk, but the wall motion score (WMS) has low concordance among observers. We sought whether quantifying the extent of abnormal wall motion using tissue Doppler (TD) could guide risk assessment in patients with abnormal DE in 576 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease; standard DE was combined with color TD imaging at peak dose. WMS was assessed by an expert observer and studies were identified as abnormal in the presence of 2:1 segments with resting or stress-induced wall motion abnormalities. Patients with abnormal DE had peak systolic velocity measured in each segment. Tissue tracking was used to measure myocardial displacement. Follow-up for death or infarction was per-formed after. 16 +/- 12 months. Of 251 patients with abnormal DE, 22 patients died (20 from cardiac causes) and 7 had nonfatal myocardial infarctionis. The average WMS in patients with events was 1.8 +/- 0.5, compared with 1.7 +/- 0.5 in patients without events (p = NS). The average systolic velocity in patients with events was 4.9 +/- 1.7 cm/s and 6.4 +/- 6.5 cm/s in the patients without events (p <0.001). The average tissue tracking in patients with events was 4.5 +/- 1.5 mm and was significant. (5.7 +/- 3.1 mm),in those,without events (p <0.001). Thus, TD is an alternative to WMS for quantifying the total extent of abnormal left ventricular function-at DE, and appears to be superior for predicting adverse outcomes. (C) 2004 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.