50 resultados para Multinomial Logistic Regression


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Objective. Eliminating health disparities, including those that are a result of socioeconomic status (SES), is one of the overarching goals of Healthy People 2010. This article reports on the development of a new, adolescent-specific measure of subjective social status (SSS) and on initial exploratory analyses of the relationship of SSS to adolescents' physical and psychological health. Methods. A cross-sectional study of 10 843 adolescents and a subsample of 166 paired adolescent/mother dyads who participated in the Growing Up Today Study was conducted. The newly developed MacArthur Scale of Subjective Social Status (10-point scale) was used to measure SSS. Paternal education was the measure of SES. Indicators of psychological and physical health included depressive symptoms and obesity, respectively. Linear regression analyses determined the association of SSS to depressive symptoms, and logistic regression determined the association of SSS to overweight and obesity, controlling for sociodemographic factors and SES. Results. Mean society ladder ranking, a subjective measure of SES, was 7.2 ± 1.3. Mean community ladder ranking, a measure of perceived placement in the school community, was 7.6 ± 1.7. Reliability of the instrument was excellent: the intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.73 for the society ladder and 0.79 for the community ladder. Adolescents had higher society ladder rankings than their mothers (µteen = 7.2 ± 1.3 vs µmom = 6.8 ± 1.2; P = .002). Older adolescents' perceptions of familial placement in society were more closely correlated with maternal subjective perceptions of placement than those of younger adolescents (Spearman's rhoteens

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Background and Aims: Hepatic steatosis has been shown to be associated with lipid peroxidation and hepatic fibrosis in a variety of liver diseases including non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. However, the lobular distribution of lipid peroxidation associated with hepatic steatosis, and the influence of hepatic iron stores on this are unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the distribution of lipid peroxidation in association with these factors, and the relationship of this to the fibrogenic cascade. Methods: Liver biopsies from 39 patients with varying degrees of hepatic steatosis were assessed for evidence of lipid peroxidation (malondialdehyde adducts), hepatic iron, inflammation, fibrosis, hepatic ;stellate cell activation (alpha-smooth muscle actin and TGF-beta expression) and collagen type I synthesis (procollagen a 1 (I) mRNA). Results: Lipid peroxidation occurred in and adjacent to fat-laden hepatocytes and was maximal in acinar zone 3. Fibrosis was associated with steatosis (P < 0.04), lipid peroxidation (P < 0.05) and hepatic iron stores (P < 0.02). Multivariate logistic regression analysis confirmed the association between steatosis and lipid peroxidation within zone 3 hepatocytes (P < 0.05), while for hepatic iron, lipid peroxidation was seen within sinusoidal cells (P < 0.05), particularly in zone 1 (P < 0.02). Steatosis was also associated with acinar inflammation (P < 0.005). α-Smooth muscle actin expression was present in association with both lipid peroxidation and fibrosis. Although the effects of steatosis and iron on lipid peroxidation and fibrosis were additive, there was no evidence of a specific synergistic interaction between them. Conclusions: These observations support a model where steatosis exerts an effect on fibrosis through lipid peroxidation, particularly in zone 3 hepatocytes. (C) 2001 Blackwell Science Asia Pty Ltd.

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The BRCA2 N372H nonconservative amino acid substitution polymorphism appears to affect fetal survival in a sex-dependent manner, and the HH genotype was found to be associated with a 1.3-fold risk of breast cancer from pooling five case-control studies of Northern European women. We investigated whether the BR 2 N372H polymorphism was associated with breast cancer in Australian women using a population-based case-control design. The BRCA2 372 genotype was determined in 1397 cases under the age of 60 years at diagnosis of a first primary breast cancer and in 775 population-sampled controls frequency matched for age. Case-control analyses and comparisons of genotype distributions were conducted using logistic regression. All of the statistical tests were two-tailed. The HH genotype was independent of age and family history of breast cancer within cases and controls, and was more common in cases (9.2% versus 6.5%). It was associated with an increased risk of breast cancer, 1.47-fold unadjusted (95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.07; P = 0.02), and 1.42-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.02; P = 0.05) after adjusting for measured risk factors. This effect was still evident after excluding women with any non-Caucasian ancestry or the 33 cases known to have inherited a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2, and would explain similar to3% of breast cancer. The BRCA2 N372H polymorphism appears to be associated with a modest recessively inherited risk of breast cancer in Australian women. This result is consistent with the findings for Northern European women.

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In many occupational safety interventions, the objective is to reduce the injury incidence as well as the mean claims cost once injury has occurred. The claims cost data within a period typically contain a large proportion of zero observations (no claim). The distribution thus comprises a point mass at 0 mixed with a non-degenerate parametric component. Essentially, the likelihood function can be factorized into two orthogonal components. These two components relate respectively to the effect of covariates on the incidence of claims and the magnitude of claims, given that claims are made. Furthermore, the longitudinal nature of the intervention inherently imposes some correlation among the observations. This paper introduces a zero-augmented gamma random effects model for analysing longitudinal data with many zeros. Adopting the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach reduces the original problem to the fitting of two independent GLMMs. The method is applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a workplace risk assessment teams program, trialled within the cleaning services of a Western Australian public hospital.

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Sun exposure is the main environmental risk factor for melanoma, but the timing of exposure during life that confers increased risk is controversial. Here we provide the first report of the association between lifetime and age-specific cumulative ultraviolet exposure and cutaneous melanoma in Queensland, Australia, an area of high solar radiation, and examine the association separately for families at high, intermediate and low familial melanoma risk. Subjects were a population-based sample of melanoma cases diagnosed and registered in Queensland between 1982 and 1990 and their relatives. The analysis included 1,263 cases and relatives with confirmed cutaneous melanoma and 3,111 first-degree relatives without melanoma as controls. Data an lifetime residence and sun exposure, family history and other melanoma risk factors were collected by a mailed questionnaire. Using conditional multiple logistic regression with stratification by family, cumulative sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood after age 20 was significantly associated with melanoma, with estimated relative risks of 1.15 per 5,000 minimal erythemal doses (MEDs) from age 5 to 12 years, and 1.52 per 5 MEDs/day from age 20. There was no association with sun exposure in families at high familial melanoma risk. History of nonmelanoma skin cancer (relative risk [RR] = 1.26) and multiple sunburns (RR = 1.31) were significant risk factors. These findings indicate that sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood are important determinants of melanoma but not in those rare families with high melanoma susceptibility, in which genetic factors are likely to be more important. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Background: Germline mutations in the CDKN2A gene, which encodes two proteins (p16INK4A and p14ARF), are the most common cause of inherited susceptibility to melanoma. We examined the penetrance of such mutations using data from eight groups from Europe, Australia and the United States that are part of The Melanoma Genetics Consortium Methods: We analyzed 80 families with documented CDKN2A mutations and multiple cases of cutaneous melanoma. We modeled penetrance for melanoma using a logistic regression model incorporating survival analysis. Hypothesis testing was based on likelihood ratio tests. Covariates included gender, alterations in p14APF protein, and population melanoma incidence rates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: The 80 analyzed families contained 402 melanoma patients, 320 of whom were tested for mutations and 291 were mutation carriers. We also tested 713 unaffected family members for mutations and 194 were carriers. Overall, CDKN2A mutation penetrance was estimated to be 0.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12 to 0.62) by age 50 years and 0.67 (95% CI = 0.31 to 0.96) by age 80 years. Penetrance was not statistically significantly modified by gender or by whether the CDKN2A mutation altered p14ARF protein. However, there was a statistically significant effect of residing in a location with a high population incidence rate of melanoma (P = .003). By age 50 years CDKN2A mutation penetrance reached 0.13 in Europe, 0.50 in the United States, and 0.32 in Australia; by age 80 years it was 0.58 in Europe, 0.76 in the United States, and 0.91 in Australia. Conclusions: This study, which gives the most informed estimates of CDKN2A mutation penetrance available, indicates that the penetrance varies with melanoma population incidence rates. Thus, the same factors that affect population incidence of melanoma may also mediate CDKN2A penetrance.

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Iron homeostasis is altered in Parkinson's disease (PD). The HFE protein is an important regulator of cellular iron homeostasis and variations within this gene can result in iron overload and the disorder known as hereditary haemochromatosis. We studied the Cys282Tyr single nucleotide polymorphism as a genetic risk factor for PD in two distinct and separately collected cohorts of Australian PD patients and controls. In the combined cohort comprising 438 PD patients and 485 control subjects, we revealed an odds ratio for possession of the 282Tyr allele of 0.61 (95% confidence interval, Cl = 0.42-0.90, P = 0.011) from univariate chi-squared and 0.59 (95% Cl = 0.39-0.90, P = 0.014) after logistic regression analyses (correcting for potential confounding factors). These results suggest that possession of the 282Tyr allele may offer some protection against the development of PD. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Abnormal left ventricular (LV) filling is common, but not universal, in hypertensive LV hypertrophy (LVH). We sought to elucidate the relative contributions of myocardial structural changes, loading and hypertrophy to LV dysfunction in 113 patients: 85 with hypertensive LVH and 28 controls without LVH and with normal filling. Patients with normal dobutamine stress echocardiography and no history of coronary artery disease were selected, in order to exclude a contribution from ischaemia or scar. Abnormal LV filling was identified in 65 LVH patients, based on Doppler measurement of transmitral filling and annular velocities. All patients underwent grey-scale and colour tissue Doppler imaging from three apical views, which were stored and analysed off line. Integrated backscatter (113) and strain rate imaging were used to detect changes in structure and function; average cyclic variation of 113, strain rate and peak systolic strain were calculated by averaging each segment. Calibrated 113 intensity, corrected for pericardial 113 intensity, was measured in the septum and posterior wall from the parasternal long-axis view. Patients with LVH differed significantly from controls with respect to all backscatter and strain parameters, irrespective of the presence or absence of abnormal LV filling. LVH patients with and without abnormal LV filling differed with regard to age, LV mass and incidence of diabetes mellitus, but also showed significant differences in cyclic variation (P < 0.01), calibrated 113 in the posterior wall (P < 0.05) and strain rate (P < 0.01), although blood pressure, heart rate and LV systolic function were similar. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, LV mass index and calibrated IB in the posterior wall were independent determinants of abnormal LV filling in patients with LVH. Thus structural and functional abnormalities can be detected in hypertensive patients with LVH with and without abnormal LV filling. In addition to age and LVH, structural (not functional) abnormalities are likely to contribute to abnormal LV filling, and may be an early sign of LV damage. 113 is useful for the detection of myocardial abnormalities in patients with hypertensive LVH.

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Clinical and non-clinical predictors of vocational recovery were examined among 782 Australians diagnosed with DSM III R psychotic disorders, using data from the study on low-prevalence disorders, part of the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, Australia 1997-1998. Of the six significant clinical predictors, self-reported course of illness emerged as a potentially practical predictor of vocational recovery. Five non-clinical variables, age, education and skills, marital status, premorbid work adjustment, and use of a vocational service in the previous year, also contributed to the prediction of vocational recovery. The implications of these findings for both rehabilitation professionals and researchers are discussed.

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At semiarid Charters Towers, north Queensland, Australia, the importance of Aedes aegypti (L.) in wells was assessed in relation to the colonization of surface habitats during the wet season. From April to July 1999, 10 wells (five positive for Ae. aegypti) were monitored to assess their status and larvae population numbers therein. All surface containers located within a 100 m radius of each well were removed, treated with s-methoprene or sealed to prevent the utilization of these containers by mosquitoes. These inner cores were surrounded by outer zones for a further 100 m in which surface containers were left untreated but all subterranean habitats were treated. Ovitraps were monitored monthly in the inner cores for 36 wk from August 1999 to April 2000 and differences in the proportions of ovitraps positive for Ae. aegypti and Ochlerotatus notoscriptus (Skuse) were analyzed by logistic regression. Analysis of the proportions of ovitraps positive for Ae. aegypti near positive wells indicated significantly greater colonization from November to March (the wet season), compared with those situated near Ae. aegypti negative wells. As Oc. notoscriptus were not produced from subterranean sites, comparisons of the proportions of ovitraps positive for Oc. notoscriptus in positive and negative inner cores provided an indication of the relative productivity of the uncontrolled surface containers in the outer zones. Differences in the utililization of ovitraps by Oc. notoscriptus among positive and negative cores were observed during only one month (March), when oviposition was greater in ovitraps in the negative cores, compared with the positive cores. Best subsets linear regression analysis of the proportion of ovitraps positive for Ae. aegypti against meteorological variables (rainfall, mean wind speed, mean relative humidity, mean minimum, and maximum temperature) during the week of ovitrapping indicated that minimum temperature and wind speed accounted for 63.4% of the variability. This study confirms that for semiarid towns such as Charters Towers, the practice of treating a relatively small number of key subterranean habitats during winter will significantly affect Ae. aegypti recolonization of surface container habitats during summer, the period of greatest risk for dengue.

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1. Sulphotransferases are a superfamily of enzymes involved in both detoxification and bioactivation of endogenous and exogenous compounds. The arylsulphotransferase SULT1A1 has been implicated in a decreased activity and thermostability when the wild-type arginine at position 213 of the coding sequence is substituted by a histidine. SULT1A1 is the isoform primarily associated with the conversion of dietary N -OH arylamines to DNA binding adducts and is therefore of interest to determine whether this polymorphism is linked to colorectal cancer. 2. Genotyping, using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis, was performed using DNA samples of healthy control subjects (n = 402) and patients with histologically proven colorectal cancer (n = 383). Both control and test populations possessed similar frequencies for the mutant allele (32.1 and 31%, respectively; P = 0.935). Results were not altered when age and gender were considered as potential confounders in a logistic regression analysis. 3. Examination of the sulphonating ability of the two allozymes with respect to the substrates p -nitrophenol and paracetamol showed that the affinity and rate of sulphonation was unaffected by substitution of arginine to histidine at position 213 of the amino acid sequence. 4. From this study, we conclude that the SULT1A1 R213H polymorphism is not linked with colorectal cancer in this elderly Australian population.

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Objectives: The present study describes the natural history of Porphyromonas gingivalis, Actinobacillus actinomycetemcomitans and Prevotella intermedia over a 5-year period and the effect of a triclosan/copolymer dentifrice on these organisms in a normal adult population. Material and Methods: Subgingival plaque samples were collected from 504 adult volunteers. Probing pocket depths (PPD) and relative attachment levels were measured using an automated probe. Participants were matched for disease status (CPI), plaque index, age and gender, and allocated to receive either a triclosan/copolymer or placebo dentifrice. Re-examination and subgingival plaque sampling was repeated after 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 years. P. gingivalis, A. actinomycetemcomitans and P. intermedia were detected and quantitated using an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Logistic regression and generalised linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Results: This 5-year longitudinal study showed considerable volatility in acquisition and loss (below the level of detection) of all three organisms in this population. Relatively few subjects had these organisms on multiple occasions. While P. gingivalis was related to loss of attachment and to PPD greater than or equal to3.5 mm, there was no relationship between A. actinomycetemcomitans or P. intermedia and disease progression over the 5 years of the study. Smokers with P. gingivalis had more PPD greater than or equal to3.5 mm than smokers without this organism. There was no significant effect of the triclosan dentifrice on P. gingivalis or A. actinomycetemcomitans . Subjects using triclosan were more likely to have P. intermedia than those not using the dentifrice; however this did not translate into these subjects having higher levels of P. intermedia and its presence was uniform showing no signs of increasing over the course of the study. Conclusion: The present 5-year longitudinal study has shown the transient nature of colonisation with P. gingivalis , A. actinomycetemcomitans and P. intermedia in a normal adult population. The use of a triclosan-containing dentifrice did not lead to an overgrowth of these organisms. The clinical effect of the dentifrice would appear to be independent of its antimicrobial properties.

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This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

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To date there have been few quantitative studies of the distribution of, and relative habitat utilisation by, koalas in the mulgalands of Queensland. To examine these parameters we applied habitat-accessibility and relative habitat-utilisation indices to estimates of faecal pellet density sampled at 149 sites across the region. Modelling the presence of pellets using logistic regression showed that the potential range of accessible habitats and relative habitat use varied greatly across the region, with rainfall being probably the most important determinant of distribution. Within that distribution, landform and rainfall were both important factors affecting habitat preference. Modelling revealed vastly different probabilities of finding a pellet under trees depending on the tree species, canopy size, and location within the region.

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This article describes one aspect of a prospective cohort study of 10,432 women aged between 70 and 75 years. After a 3-year period, 503 women self-reported a new diagnosis by a doctor of angina or myocardial infarction (symptomatic coronary heart disease [CHD]). Time one psychosocial variables (Duke Social Support Index, time pressure, Perceived Stress Scale, Mental Health Index, having a partner, educational attainment, and location of residence) were analyzed using univariate binary logistic regression for their ability to predict subsequent symptomatic CHD. Of these variables, the Duke Social Support Index, Perceived Stress Scale and the Mental Health Index were found to be significant predictors of symptomatic CHID diagnosis. Only the Perceived Stress Scale, however, proved to be a significant independent predictor. After controlling for time one nonpsychosocial variables, as well as the frequency of family doctor visits, perceived stress remained a significant predictor of the new diagnosis of symptomatic CHD in this cohort of older women over a 3-year period.