61 resultados para Management - simulation methods
Resumo:
Treatment case studies of three children whose speech was characterized by non-developmental errors are described. Three therapy methods were trialed with each child: phonological contrast; core vocabulary and PROMPT. The accuracy and intelligibility of the children's connected speech improved throughout: the course of the programme. Intervention that focused on teaching a rule about the contrastive use of phonemes was most successful for a child who consistently made non-developmental errors. Children making inconsistent errors received most benefit from the core vocabulary approach that markedly enhanced consistency of production. However, once consistency was established, one child benefited from phonological contrast therapy. While the results of the study should be interpreted with caution due to the small sample size and the cumulative effects of intervention, the findings suggest that different parts of a child's phonological and phonetic system may respond to various types of treatment approaches that target different aspects of speech production. The implication drawn is that just as no single treatment approach is appropriate for all children with disordered phonology, management of some children may involve selecting and sequencing a range of different approaches.
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Urbanization and the ability to manage for a sustainable future present numerous challenges for geographers and planners in metropolitan regions. Remotely sensed data are inherently suited to provide information on urban land cover characteristics, and their change over time, at various spatial and temporal scales. Data models for establishing the range of urban land cover types and their biophysical composition (vegetation, soil, and impervious surfaces) are integrated to provide a hierarchical approach to classifying land cover within urban environments. These data also provide an essential component for current simulation models of urban growth patterns, as both calibration and validation data. The first stages of the approach have been applied to examine urban growth between 1988 and 1995 for a rapidly developing area in southeast Queensland, Australia. Landsat Thematic Mapper image data provided accurate (83% adjusted overall accuracy) classification of broad land cover types and their change over time. The combination of commonly available remotely sensed data, image processing methods, and emerging urban growth models highlights an important application for current and next generation moderate spatial resolution image data in studies of urban environments.
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Background: Sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are important co-factors in HIV transmission. We studied the impact of health worker training and STD syndrome packets (containing recommended drugs, condoms, partner notification cards and information leaflets) on the quality of STD case management in primary care clinics in rural South Africa. Methods: A randomized controlled trial of five matched pairs of clinics compared the intervention with routine syndromic management. Outcomes were measured by simulated patients using standardized scripts, and included the proportion given recommended drugs; correctly case managed (given recommended drugs plus condoms and partner cards); adequately counselled; reporting good staff attitude; and consulted in privacy. Results: At baseline, the quality of STD case management was similarly poor in both groups. Only 36 and 46% of simulated patients visiting intervention and control clinics, respectively, were given recommended drugs. After the intervention, intervention clinics provided better case management than controls: 88 versus 50% (P < 0.01) received recommended drugs; 83 versus 12% (P < 0.005) were correctly case managed; 68 versus 46% (P = 0.06) were adequately counselled; 84 versus 58% experienced good staff attitude (P = 0.07); and 92 versus 86% (P = 0.4) were consulted privately. A syndrome packet cost US$1.50; the incremental cost was US$6.80. The total intervention cost equalled 0.3% of annual district health expenditure. Interpretation: A simple and affordable health service intervention achieved substantial improvements in STD case management. Although this is a critical component of STD control and can reduce HIV transmission, community-level interventions to influence health-seeking behaviour are also needed. (C) 2000 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Resumo:
1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.
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Background. The importance of general practice involvement in the care of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is increasing due to the rising numbers of patients who present with the disorder. It has been suggested by consensus bodies that GPs should be identifying and referring patients at the severe end of the ADHD spectrum and managing those with less severe symptoms. However, GPs' views of their role in ADHD care are unknown. Objective. Our aim was to explore the attitudes and practices of Australian GPs towards the diagnosis and management of ADHD. Methods. We conducted a series of focus groups to explore GPs' beliefs regarding the causes of ADHD, their perceived role in ADHD diagnosis and management and their views on the role of behaviour therapies and pharmacotherapies in ADHD management. The subjects were 28 GPs in six focus groups. Results. GPs in this study did not want to be the primary providers of care for patients with ADHD. Participants indicated a preference to refer the patient to medical specialists for diagnosis and treatment of ADHD, and expressed low levels of interest in becoming highly involved in ADHD care. Concerns about overdiagnosis and misdiagnosis of the disorder, diagnostic complexity, time constraints, insufficient education and training about the disorder, and concerns regarding misuse and diversion of stimulant medications were the reasons cited for their lack of willingness. Conclusions. The Australian GPs in this study identify a role for themselves in ADHD care which is largely supportive in nature, and involves close liaison with specialist services.
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Objective: The Assessing Cost-Effectiveness - Mental Health (ACE-MH) study aims to assess from a health sector perspective, whether there are options for change that could improve the effectiveness and efficiency of Australia's current mental health services by directing available resources toward 'best practice' cost-effective services. Method: The use of standardized evaluation methods addresses the reservations expressed by many economists about the simplistic use of League Tables based on economic studies confounded by differences in methods, context and setting. The cost-effectiveness ratio for each intervention is calculated using economic and epidemiological data. This includes systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials for efficacy, the Australian Surveys of Mental Health and Wellbeing for current practice and a combination of trials and longitudinal studies for adherence. The cost-effectiveness ratios are presented as cost (A$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) saved with a 95% uncertainty interval based on Monte Carlo simulation modelling. An assessment of interventions on 'second filter' criteria ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') allows broader concepts of 'benefit' to be taken into account, as well as factors that might influence policy judgements in addition to cost-effectiveness ratios. Conclusions: The main limitation of the study is in the translation of the effect size from trials into a change in the DALY disability weight, which required the use of newly developed methods. While comparisons within disorders are valid, comparisons across disorders should be made with caution. A series of articles is planned to present the results.
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Background: All cases of lung cancer diagnosed in Western Australia in 1996 in which surgery was the primary treatment, were reviewed. Reported herein are the characteristics of the patients, the treatment outcomes and a comparison of the management undertaken with that recommended by international guidelines. Methods: All patients with a new diagnosis of lung cancer in Western Australia in the calendar year of 1996 were identified using two different population-based registration systems: the Western Australian (WA) Cancer Registry and the WA Hospital Morbidity Data System. A structured questionnaire on the diagnosis and management was completed for each case. Date of death was determined through the WA Cancer Registry. Results: Six hundred and sixty-eight patients with lung cancer were identified; 132 (20%) were treated with surgery. Lobectomy was the most frequently performed procedure (71%), followed by pneumonectomy (19%). Major complications affected 23% of patients. Postoperative mortality was 6% (3% lobectomy, 12% pneumonectomy). At 5 years the absolute survival was as follows for stage I, II, IIIA, IIIB, respectively: 51%, 45%, 12%, 5%. Conclusions: Investigations and choice of surgery in WA in 1996 reflect current international guidelines. The survival of patients with resectable lung cancer remains unsatisfactory.
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Numerical methods are used to simulate the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow and rock alteration in three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zones. The double diffusion is caused by a combination of both the positive upward temperature gradient and the positive downward salinity concentration gradient within a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone, which is assumed to be more permeable than its surrounding rocks. In order to ensure the physical meaningfulness of the obtained numerical solutions, the numerical method used in this study is validated by a benchmark problem, for which the analytical solution to the critical Rayleigh number of the system is available. The theoretical value of the critical Rayleigh number of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system can be used to judge whether or not the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow can take place within the system. After the possibility of triggering the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow is theoretically validated for the numerical model of a three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system, the corresponding numerical solutions for the convective flow and temperature are directly coupled with a geochemical system. Through the numerical simulation of the coupled system between the convective fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transport and chemical reactions, we have investigated the effect of the double-diffusion driven convective pore-fluid flow on the rock alteration, which is the direct consequence of mineral redistribution due to its dissolution, transportation and precipitation, within the three-dimensional fluid-saturated geological fault zone system. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The optimal dosing schedule for melphalan therapy of recurrent malignant melanoma in isolated limb perfusions has been examined using a physiological pharmacokinetic model with data from isolated rat hindlimb perfusions (IRHP), The study included a comparison of melphalan distribution in IRHP under hyperthermia and normothermia conditions. Rat hindlimbs were perfused with Krebs-Henseleit buffer containing 4.7% bovine serum albumin at 37 or 41.5 degrees C at a flow rate of 4 ml/min. Concentrations of melphalan in perfusate and tissues were determined by high performance liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection, The concentration of melphalan in perfusate and tissues was linearly related to the input concentration. The rate and amount of melphalan uptake into the different tissues was higher at 41.5 degrees C than at 37 degrees C. A physiological pharmacokinetic model was validated from the tissue and perfusate time course of melphalan after melphalan perfusion. Application of the model involved the amount of melphalan exposure in the muscle, skin and fat in a recirculation system was related to the method of melphalan administration: single bolus > divided bolus > infusion, The peak concentration of melphalan in the perfusate was also related to the method of administration in the same order, Infusing the total dose of melphalan over 20 min during a 60 min perfusion optimized the exposure of tissues to melphalan whilst minimizing the peak perfusate concentration of melphalan. It is suggested that this method of melphalan administration may be preferable to other methods in terms of optimizing the efficacy of melphalan whilst minimizing the limb toxicity associated with its use in isolated limb perfusion.
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A new method is presented to determine an accurate eigendecomposition of difficult low temperature unimolecular master equation problems. Based on a generalisation of the Nesbet method, the new method is capable of achieving complete spectral resolution of the master equation matrix with relative accuracy in the eigenvectors. The method is applied to a test case of the decomposition of ethane at 300 K from a microcanonical initial population with energy transfer modelled by both Ergodic Collision Theory and the exponential-down model. The fact that quadruple precision (16-byte) arithmetic is required irrespective of the eigensolution method used is demonstrated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.