61 resultados para MCMC sampling


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There have been a number of developments in the need, design and use of passive air samplers (PAS) for persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This article is the first in a Special Issue of the journal to review these developments and some of the data arising from them. We explain the need and benefit of developing PAS for POPs, the different approaches that can be used, and highlight future developments and needs. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a methodology that is gaining widespread use in the phylogenetics community and is central to phylogenetic software packages such as MrBayes. An important issue for users of MCMC methods is how to select appropriate values for adjustable parameters such as the length of the Markov chain or chains, the sampling density, the proposal mechanism, and, if Metropolis-coupled MCMC is being used, the number of heated chains and their temperatures. Although some parameter settings have been examined in detail in the literature, others are frequently chosen with more regard to computational time or personal experience with other data sets. Such choices may lead to inadequate sampling of tree space or an inefficient use of computational resources. We performed a detailed study of convergence and mixing for 70 randomly selected, putatively orthologous protein sets with different sizes and taxonomic compositions. Replicated runs from multiple random starting points permit a more rigorous assessment of convergence, and we developed two novel statistics, delta and epsilon, for this purpose. Although likelihood values invariably stabilized quickly, adequate sampling of the posterior distribution of tree topologies took considerably longer. Our results suggest that multimodality is common for data sets with 30 or more taxa and that this results in slow convergence and mixing. However, we also found that the pragmatic approach of combining data from several short, replicated runs into a metachain to estimate bipartition posterior probabilities provided good approximations, and that such estimates were no worse in approximating a reference posterior distribution than those obtained using a single long run of the same length as the metachain. Precision appears to be best when heated Markov chains have low temperatures, whereas chains with high temperatures appear to sample trees with high posterior probabilities only rarely. [Bayesian phylogenetic inference; heating parameter; Markov chain Monte Carlo; replicated chains.]

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Predatory insects and spiders are key elements of integrated pest management (IPM) programmes in agricultural crops such as cotton. Management decisions in IPM programmes should to be based on a reliable and efficient method for counting both predators and pests. Knowledge of the temporal constraints that influence sampling is required because arthropod abundance estimates are likely to vary over a growing season and within a day. Few studies have adequately quantified this effect using the beat sheet, a potentially important sampling method. We compared the commonly used methods of suction and visual sampling to the beat sheet, with reference to an absolute cage clamp method for determining the abundance of various arthropod taxa over 5 weeks. There were significantly more entomophagous arthropods recorded using the beat sheet and cage clamp methods than by using suction or visual sampling, and these differences were more pronounced as the plants grew. In a second trial, relative estimates of entomophagous and phytophagous arthropod abundance were made using beat sheet samples collected over a day. Beat sheet estimates of the abundance of only eight of the 43 taxa examined were found to vary significantly over a day. Beat sheet sampling is recommended in further studies of arthropod abundance in cotton, but researchers and pest management advisors should bear in mind the time of season and time of day effects.

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A modern mineral processing plant represents a substantial investment. During the design process, there is often a period when costs (or revenues) must be compensated for by cuts in capital expenditure. In many cases, sampling and measurement equipment provides a soft target for such 'savings'. This process is almost analgous to reducing the capital investment in a corner store by not including a cash register. The consequences will be quite similar - a serious lack of sound performance data and plenty of opportunities for theft - deliberate or inadvertent. This paper makes the case that investment in sampling and measurement equipment is more cost-effective during the design phase. Further, a strong measurement culture will have many benefits including the ability to take advantage of small gains. In almost any business, there are many more opportunities to make small gains than to make large, step changes. In short, if a project cannot justify the cost of accurate and reliable measurement of its performance, it probably should not be a project at all.

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One aim of providing enrichment to captive animals is to promote the expression of behavioural patterns similar to their wild conspecifics. We evaluated the effectiveness of four types of simple feeding enrichment, using surveillance cameras to record the behaviour of 11 captive squirrel monkeys housed in a single enclosure at Alma Park Zoo in Brisbane, Australia. The enrichment involved differences in presentation (whole/chopped) and distribution (localised/scattered) of fruit and vegetables that were part of the normal diet of these animals. Distinguishing between individual squirrel monkeys was not possible from the videos, so Instantaneous Scan Sampling was used to record the numbers of animals performing particular behaviours every 15 minutes over the 24 hour period as well as every 5 minutes for the hour following provision of enrichment. This provided an estimation of the percentage of time spent by the group in various activities. As a result of the enrichment, the activity budget of the group more closely approximated that of wild squirrel monkeys. However on a number of occasions where the enrichment required the squirrel monkeys to work to obtain their food (whole fruit and vegetables), a number of individuals became aggressive towards the zookeepers. This result highlights the variation in responses of individual animals towards enrichment and indicates that in enclosures with large numbers of animals, the response of each individual should be evaluated in addition to the overall benefit of the enrichment for the group. Furthermore, this variation also suggests that it may be beneficial to provide the animals with choices of enrichment as opposed to providing single forms of enrichment that may only be effective for a proportion of the animals in the enclosure, and may even result in undesirable responses from some individuals.