Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Modelling life history strategies with capture-recapture data: Evolutionary demography of the water skink Eulamprus tympanum

Matrix population models, elasticity analysis and loop analysis can potentially provide powerful techniques for the analysis of life histories. Data from a capture-recapture study on a population of southern highland water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) were used to construct a matrix population model. Errors in elasticities were calculated by using the parametric bootstrap technique. Elasticity and loop analyses were then conducted to identify the life history stages most important to fitness. The same techniques were used to investigate the relative importance of fast versus slow growth, and rapid versus delayed reproduction. Mature water skinks were long-lived, but there was high immature mortality. The most sensitive life history stage was the subadult stage. It is suggested that life history evolution in E. tympanum may be strongly affected by predation, particularly by birds. Because our population declined over the study, slow growth and delayed reproduction were the optimal life history strategies over this period. Although the techniques of evolutionary demography provide a powerful approach for the analysis of life histories, there are formidable logistical obstacles in gathering enough high-quality data for robust estimates of the critical parameters.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

A history of agricultural production at Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, Turkey

A history of agricultural production is proposed for Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, central Turkey, using archaeobotanical, environmental, population and settlement studies. In the aceramic early phase of site occupation, intensive strategies developed as changes in population and environment caused stress on food supplies produced within a limited territory. Food exchange may have been part of the social means by which Catalhoyuk and nearby contemporary settlements amalgamated into the single site of the main occupation phase. Population change, inherited territories and continuing environmental impact led to the development of an extensive system of agriculture using widely dispersed dry soils, with an intensive regime applied to nearby alluvial soils. Social tensions caused by the evolution of this system contributed to the fissioning of the site by the Chalcolithic.

The response of native Australian rodents to predator odours varies seasonally: a by-product of life history variation?

Small mammals are subject to predation from mammalian, avian and reptilian predators. There is an obvious advantage for prey species to detect the presence of predators in their environment, enabling them to make decisions about movement and foraging behaviour based on perceived risk of predation. We examined the effect of faecal odours from marsupial and eutherian predators, and a native reptilian predator, on the behaviour of three endemic Australian rodent species (the fawn-footed melomys, Melomys cervinipes, the bush rat, Rattus fuscipes, and the giant white-tailed rat, Uromys caudimaculatus) in rainforest remnants on the Atherton Tableland, North Queensland, Australia. Infrared camera traps were used to assess visit rates of rodents to odour stations containing faecal and control odours. Rodents avoided odour stations containing predator faeces, but did not avoid herbivore or control odours. The responses of the three prey species differed: in the late wet season U. caudimaculatus avoided predator odours, whereas R. fuscipes and M. cervinipes did not. In contrast, in the late dry season all three species avoided odour stations containing predator odours. We speculate that these different responses may result from variation in life history traits between the species. (c) 2006 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.