47 resultados para Individual-based modeling


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General practitioners wanting to practise evidence-based medicine (EBM) are constrained by time factors and the great diversity of clinical problems they deal with. They need experience in knowing what questions to ask, in locating and evaluating the evidence, and in applying it. Conventional searching for the best evidence can be achieved in daily general practice. Sometimes the search can be performed during the consultation, but more often it can be done later and the patient can return for the result. Case-based journal clubs provide a supportive environment for GPs to work together to find the best evidence at regular meetings. An evidence-based literature search service is being piloted to enhance decision-making for individual patients. A central facility provides the search and interprets the evidence in relation to individual cases. A request form and a results format make the service akin to pathology testing or imaging. Using EBM in general practice appears feasible. Major difficulties still exist before it can be practised by all GPs, but it has the potential to change the way doctors update their knowledge.

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OBJECTIVE: To establish body mass index (BMI) norms for standard figural stimuli using a large Caucasian population-based sample. In addition, we sought to determine the effectiveness of the figural stimuli to identify individuals as obese or thin. DESIGN: All Caucasian twins born in Virginia between 1915 and 1971 were identified by public birth record. In addition, 3347 individual twins responded to a letter published in the newsletter of the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP). All adult twins (aged 18 and over) from both of these sources and their family members were mailed a 16 page 'Health and Lifestyle' questionnaire. SUBJECTS: BMI and silhouette data were available on 16 728 females and 11 366 males ranging in age from 18- 100. MEASUREMENTS: Self-report information on height-weight, current body size, desired body size and a discrepancy score using standard figural stimuli. RESULTS: Gender- and age-specific norms are presented linking BMI to each of the figural stimuli. Additional norms for desired body size and discrepancy scores are also presented. Receiver operating curves (ROC) indicate that the figural stimuli are effective in classifying individuals as obese or thin. CONCLUSIONS: With the establishment of these norms, the silhouettes used in standard body image assessment can now be linked to BMI. Differences were observed between women and men in terms of desired body size and discrepancy scores, with women preferring smaller sizes. The figural stimuli are a robust technique for classifying individuals as obese or thin.

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This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.

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Agapophytinae subf.n. is a highly diverse lineage of Australasian Therevidae, comprising eight described and two new genera: Agapophytus Guerin-Meneville, Acupalpa Krober, Acraspisa Krober, Belonalys Krober, Bonjeania Irwin & Lyneborg, Parapsilocephala Krober, Acatopygia Krober, Laxotela Winterton & Irwin, Pipinnipons gen.n. and Patanothrix gen.n. A genus-level cladistic analysis of the subfamily was undertaken using sixty-eight adult morphological characters and c. 1000 base pairs of the elongation factor-1 alpha (EF-1 alpha) protein coding gene. The morphological data partition produced three most parsimonious cladograms, whereas the molecular data partition gave a single most parsimonious cladogram, which did not match any of the cladograms found in the morphological analysis. The level of congruence between the data partitions was determined using the partition homogeneity test (HTF) and Wilcoxon signed ranks rest. Despite being significantly incongruent in at least one of the incongruence tests, the partitions were combined in a simultaneous analysis. The combined data yielded a single cladogram that was better supported than that of the individual partitions analysed separately. The relative contributions of the data partitions to support for individual nodes on the combined cladogram were investigated using Partitioned Bremer Support. The level of support for many nodes on the combined cladogram was non-additive and often greater than the sum of support for the respective nodes on individual partitions. This synergistic interaction between incongruent data partitions indicates a common phylogenetic signal in both partitions. It also suggests that criteria for partition combination based solely on incongruence may be misleading. The phylogenetic relationships of the genera are discussed using the combined data. A key to genera of Agapophytinae is presented, with genera diagnosed and figured. Two new genera are described: Patanothrix with a new species (Pat. skevingtoni) and Pat. wilsoni (Mann) transferred from Parapsilocephala, and Pipinnipons with a new species (Pip. kroeberi). Pipinnipons fascipennis (Krober) is transferred from Squamopygin Krober and Pip. imitans (Mann) is transferred from Agapophytus. Agapophytus bicolor (Krober) is transferred from Parapsilocephala. Agapophytus varipennis Mann is synonymised with Aga, queenslandi Krober and Aga. flavicornis Mann is synonymised with Aga. pallidicornis (Krober).

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Issues concerning the influence of attachment characteristics on own and partner's disclosure were addressed using a sample of 113 couples in medium-term dating relationships. Individual differences in attachment were assessed in terms of relationship anxiety and avoidance. Disposition to disclose was assessed using questionnaire measures of self-disclosure, relationship-focused disclosure, and the ability to elicit disclosure from the partner; in addition, structured diaries were used to assess aspects of disclosure (amount, intimacy, emotional tone, and satisfaction) in the context of couples' everyday interactions. Couple-level analyses showed that avoidance strongly predicted dispositional measures of disclosure, whereas anxiety (particularly partner's anxiety) was related to negative evaluations of everyday interactions. Interactive effects of attachment dimensions and gender were also obtained, highlighting the complexity of communication behavior. The results are discussed in terms of the goals and strategies associated with working models of attachment.

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Extended-spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBLs) are active against oxyimino cephalosporins and monobactams. Twenty-one Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates obtained between 1991 and 1995 at the Princess Alexandra Hospital in Brisbane, Australia, were subject to amplification and sequencing of the SHV beta-lactamase-encoding genes. Thirteen strains were phenotypically ESBL positive. Of these, six strains carried the bla(SHV-2a) gene and seven strains carried the bla(SHV-12) gene. Eight strains were phenotypically ESBL negative. Of these, seven strains carried the non-ESBL bla(SHV-11) gene and one strain carried the non-ESBL bla(SHV-1) gene. There was complete correspondence between the ESBL phenotype and the presence or absence of an ESBL-encoding gene(s). In addition, it was determined that of the 13 ESBL-positive strains, at least 4 carried copies of a non-ESBL-encoding gene in addition to the bla(SHV-2a) or bla(SHV12) gene. A minisequencing-based assay was developed to discriminate the different SHV classes. This technique, termed first-nucleotide change, involves the identification of the base added to a primer in a single-nucleotide extension reaction. The assay targeted polymorphisms at the first bases of codons 238 and 240 and reliably discriminated ESBL-positive strains from ESBL-negative strains and also distinguished strains carrying bla(SHV-2a) from strains carrying bla(SHV-12). In addition, this method was used to demonstrated an association between the relative copy numbers of bla(SHV) genes in individual strains and the levels of antibiotic resistance.

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Numerical modeling of the eddy currents induced in the human body by the pulsed field gradients in MRI presents a difficult computational problem. It requires an efficient and accurate computational method for high spatial resolution analyses with a relatively low input frequency. In this article, a new technique is described which allows the finite difference time domain (FDTD) method to be efficiently applied over a very large frequency range, including low frequencies. This is not the case in conventional FDTD-based methods. A method of implementing streamline gradients in FDTD is presented, as well as comparative analyses which show that the correct source injection in the FDTD simulation plays a crucial rule in obtaining accurate solutions. In particular, making use of the derivative of the input source waveform is shown to provide distinct benefits in accuracy over direct source injection. In the method, no alterations to the properties of either the source or the transmission media are required. The method is essentially frequency independent and the source injection method has been verified against examples with analytical solutions. Results are presented showing the spatial distribution of gradient-induced electric fields and eddy currents in a complete body model.

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Primary vaccine strategies against group A streptococci (GAS) have focused on the M protein-the target of opsonic antibodies important for protective immunity. We have previously reported protection of mice against GAS infection following parenteral delivery of a multi-epitope vaccine construct, referred to as a heteropolymer. This current report has assessed mucosal (intranasal (i.n.) and oral) delivery of the heteropolymer in mice with regard to the induction and specificity of mucosal and systemic antibody responses, and compared this to parenteral delivery. GAS-specific IgA responses were detected in saliva and gut upon i.n. and oral delivery of the heteropolymer co-administered with cholera toxin B subunit, respectively. High titre serum IgG responses were elicited to the heteropolymer following all routes of delivery when administered with adjuvant. Moreover, as with parenteral delivery, serum IgG antibodies were detected to the individual heteropolymer peptides following i.n. but not oral delivery. These data support the potential of the i.n. route in the mucosal delivery of a GAS vaccine. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This communications describes an electromagnetic model of a radial line planar antenna consisting of a radial guide with one central probe and many peripheral probes arranged in concentric circles feeding an array of antenna elements such as patches or wire curls. The model takes into account interactions between the coupling probes while assuming isolation of radiating elements. Based on this model, computer programs are developed to determine equivalent circuit parameters of the feed network and the radiation pattern of the radial line planar antenna. Comparisons are made between the present model and the two-probe model developed earlier by other researchers.

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Under certain conditions, cross-sectional analysis of cross-twin intertrait correlations can provide important information about the direction of causation (DOC) between two variables. A community-based sample of Australian female twins aged 18 to 45 years was mailed an extensive Health and Lifestyle Questionnaire (HLQ) that covered a wide range of personality and behavioral measures. Included were self-report measures of recent psychological distress and perceived childhood environment (PBI). Factor analysis of the PBI yielded three interpretable dimensions: Coldness, Overprotection, and Autonomy. Univariate analysis revealed that parental Overprotection and Autonomy were best explained by additive genetic, shared, and nonshared environmental effects (ACE), whereas the best-fitting model for PBI Coldness and the three measures of psychological distress (Depression, Phobic Anxiety, and Somatic Distress) included only additive genetic and nonshared environmental effects (AE). A common pathway model best explained the covariation between (1) the three PBI dimensions and (2) the three measures of psychological distress. DOC modeling between latent constructs of parenting and psychological distress revealed that a model which specified recollected parental behavior as the cause of psychological distress provided a better fit than a model which specified psychological distress as the cause of recollected parental behavior. Power analyses and limitations of the findings are discussed.

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In modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), patients are exposed to strong, time-varying gradient magnetic fields that may be able to induce electric fields (E-fields)/currents in tissues approaching the level of physiological significance. In this work we present theoretical investigations into induced E-fields in the thorax, and evaluate their potential influence on cardiac electric activity under the assumption that the sites of maximum E-field correspond to the myocardial stimulation threshold (an abnormal circumstance). Whole-body cylindrical and planar gradient coils were included in the model. The calculations of the induced fields are based on an efficient, quasi-static, finite-difference scheme and an anatomically realistic, whole-body model. The potential for cardiac stimulation was evaluated using an electrical model of the heart. Twelve-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) signals were simulated and inspected for arrhythmias caused by the applied fields for both healthy and diseased hearts. The simulations show that the shape of the thorax and the conductive paths significantly influence induced E-fields. In healthy patients, these fields are not sufficient to elicit serious arrhythmias with the use of contemporary gradient sets. However, raising the strength and number of repeated switching episodes of gradients, as is certainly possible in local chest gradient sets, could expose patients to increased risk. For patients with cardiac disease, the risk factors are elevated. By the use of this model, the sensitivity of cardiac pathologies, such as abnormal conductive pathways, to the induced fields generated by an MRI sequence can be investigated. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

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Time motion analysis is extensively used to assess the demands of team sports. At present there is only limited information on the reliability of measurements using this analysis tool. The aim of this study was to establish the reliability of an individual observer's time motion analysis of rugby union. Ten elite level rugby players were individually tracked in Southern Hemisphere Super 12 matches using a digital video camera. The video footage was subsequently analysed by a single researcher on two occasions one month apart. The test-retest reliability was quantified as the typical error of measurement (TEM) and rated as either good (10% TEM). The total time spent in the individual movements of walking, jogging, striding, sprinting, static exertion and being stationary had moderate to poor reliability (5.8-11.1% TEM). The frequency of individual movements had good to poor reliability (4.3-13.6% TEM), while the mean duration of individual movements had moderate reliability (7.1-9.3% TEM). For the individual observer in the present investigation, time motion analysis was shown to be moderately reliable as an evaluation tool for examining the movement patterns of players in competitive rugby. These reliability values should be considered when assessing the movement patterns of rugby players within competition.

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Drying kinetics of low molecular weight sugars such as fructose, glucose, sucrose and organic acid such as citric acid and high molecular weight carbohydrate such as maltodextrin (DE 6) were determined experimentally using single drop drying experiments as well as predicted numerically by solving the mass and heat transfer equations. The predicted moisture and temperature histories agreed with the experimental ones within 6% average relative (absolute) error and average difference of +/- 1degreesC, respectively. The stickiness histories of these drops were determined experimentally and predicted numerically based on the glass transition temperature (T-g) of surface layer. The model predicted the experimental observations with good accuracy. A nonsticky regime for these materials during spray drying is proposed by simulating a drop, initially 120 mum in diameter, in a spray drying environment.

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The alternative sigma factor sigB gene is involved in the stress response regulation of Listeria monocytogenes, and contributes towards growth and survival in adverse conditions. This gene was examined to determine if it could be a useful indicator of lineage differentiation, similar to the established method based on ribotyping. The sigB sequence was resolved in four local L. monocytogenes strains and the phylogenetic relationship among these, and a further 21 sigB gene sequences from strains of different serotype and lineage including two Listeria innocua strains, obtained from the GenBank database were determined. The sigB nucleotide sequences of these 25 Listeria strains were then examined for single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) sites that could differentiate between the three lineages. Based on nucleotide sequences L. monocytogenes lineage F serotype 1/2b and 4b clustered together, lineage II/serotype 1/2a and 1/2c strains clustered together, lineage III/serotypes 4a and 4c strains clustered together and L. innocua strains clustered together as an outgroup. SNPs differentiating the three lineages were identified. Individual allele-specific PCR reactions based on these polymorphisms were successful in grouping known and a further 37 local L. monocytogenes isolates into the three lineages. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.