Slowing down a pine invasion despite uncertainty in demography and dispersal

1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

Urban vulnerability in Sydney: Policy and institutional ambiguities in bushfire protection

Despite the inevitability of the bushfires hazard across the Sydney region, a mismatch exists between reactive technological fixes and proactive social programs which have far-reaching vulnerability and governance consequences. This paper questions the adequacy of current policy and action, revealing contradictions and tensions that expose Sydney's vulnerability and have implications for other Australian cities.

Incorporating a TEV cleavage site reduces the solubility of nine recombinant mouse proteins

Failure to express soluble proteins in bacteria is mainly attributed to the properties of the target protein itself, as well as the choice of the vector, the purification tag and the linker between the tag and protein, and codon usage. The expression of proteins with fusion tags to facilitate subsequent purification steps is a widely used procedure in the production of recombinant proteins. However, the additional residues can affect the properties of the protein; therefore, it is often desirable to remove the tag after purification. This is usually done by engineering a cleavage site between the tag and the encoded protein that is recognised by a site-specific protease, such as the one from tobacco etch virus (TEV). In this study, we investigated the effect of four different tags on the bacterial expression and solubility of nine mouse proteins. Two of the four engineered constructs contained hexahistidine tags with either a long or short linker. The other two constructs contained a TEV cleavage site engineered into the linker region. Our data show that inclusion of the TEV recognition site directly downstream of the recombination site of the Invitrogen Gateway vector resulted, in a loss of solubility of the nine mouse proteins. Our work suggests that one needs to be very careful when making modifications to expression vectors and combining different affinity and fusion tags and cleavage sites: (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification of patients with chronic kidney disease: Results of screening strategies incorporating clinical risk scoring and dobutamine stress echocardiography

Background Cardiac disease is the principal cause of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Ischemia at dobutamine stress echocardiography (DSE) is associated with adverse events in these patients. We sought the efficacy of combining clinical risk evaluation with DSE. Methods We allocated 244 patients with CKD (mean age 54 years, 140 men, 169 dialysis-dependent at baseline) into low- and high-risk groups based on two disease-specific scores and the Framingham risk model. All underwent DSE and were further stratified according to DSE results. Patients were followed over 20 +/- 14 months for events (death, myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome). Results There were 49 deaths and 32 cardiac events. Using the different clinical scores, allocation of high risk varied from 34% to 79% of patients, and 39% to 50% of high-risk patients had an abnormal DSE. In the high-risk groups, depending on the clinical score chosen, 25% to 44% with an abnormal DSE had a cardiac event, compared with 8% to 22% with a.normal DSE. Cardiac events occurred in 2.0%, 3.1 %, and 9.7% of the low-risk patients, using the two disease-specific and Framingham scores, respectively, and DSE results did not add to risk evaluation in this subgroup. Independent DSE predictors of cardiac events were a lower resting diastolic blood pressure, angina during the test, and the combination of ischemia with resting left ventricular dysfunction. Conclusion In CKD patients, high-risk findings by DSE can predict outcome. A stepwise strategy of combining clinical risk scores with DSE for CAD screening in CKD reduces the number of tests required and identifies a high-risk subgroup among whom DSE results more effectively stratify high and low risk.

Social Vulnerability Scale for older adults: Validation study

The Social Vulnerability Scale (SVS), an informant-report of social vulnerability for older adults, was piloted in a sample of 167 undergraduate students (63 male, 104 female) from the University of Queensland. Participants aged 18 - 53 (M = 25.53 years, SD = 7.83 years) completed the SVS by rating a relative or friend aged ≥50 years (M = 71.65 years, SD = 12.49 years): either someone with memory problems, stroke, dementia, or other neurological condition (n = 85); or a healthy older adult (n = 82). Excellent internal consistency and test - retest reliability were demonstrated, and the SVS effectively differentiated healthy older adults from those with a neurological condition based on proxy ratings of social vulnerability. The SVS is a potentially useful adjunct measure of older adults' capacity to reside independently. 1 *For information on using the Social Vulnerability Scale, email d.pinsker@psy.uq.edu.au or stone@psy.uq.edu.au

Incorporating level set methods in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for land-surface process modelling

Land-surface processes include a broad class of models that operate at a landscape scale. Current modelling approaches tend to be specialised towards one type of process, yet it is the interaction of processes that is increasing seen as important to obtain a more integrated approach to land management. This paper presents a technique and a tool that may be applied generically to landscape processes. The technique tracks moving interfaces across landscapes for processes such as water flow, biochemical diffusion, and plant dispersal. Its theoretical development applies a Lagrangian approach to motion over a Eulerian grid space by tracking quantities across a landscape as an evolving front. An algorithm for this technique, called level set method, is implemented in a geographical information system (GIS). It fits with a field data model in GIS and is implemented as operators in map algebra. The paper describes an implementation of the level set methods in a map algebra programming language, called MapScript, and gives example program scripts for applications in ecology and hydrology.