Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sleep-related breathing disorder in Duchenne muscular dystrophy: Disease spectrum in the paediatric population

Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is a progressive neuromuscular disease with death usually occurring because of respiratory failure. Signs of early respiratory insufficiency are usually first detectable in sleep. Objective: To study the presentation of sleep-related breathing disorder (SRBD) in patients with DMD. Method:> A retrospective review of patients with DMD attending a tertiary paediatric sleep disorder clinic over a 5-year period. Symptoms, lung function and polysomnographic indices were reviewed. Results: A total of 34 patients with DMD were referred for respiratory assessment (1-15 years). Twenty-two (64%) reported sleep-related symptomatology. Forced vital capacity (FVC) was between 12 and 107% predicted (n = 29). Thirty-two progressed to have polysomnography of which 15 were normal studies (median age: 10 years) and 10 (31%) were diagnostic of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) (median age: 8 years). A total of 11 patients (32%) showed hypoventilation (median age: 13 years) during the 5-year period and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) was offered to them. The median FVC of this group was 27% predicted. There was a significant improvement in the apnoea/hypopnoea index (AHI) (mean difference = 11.31, 95% CI = 5.91-16.70, P = 0.001) following the institution of NIV. Conclusions: The prevalence of SRBD in DMD is significant. There is a bimodal presentation of SRBD, with OSA found in the first decade and hypoventilation more commonly seen at the beginning of the second decade. Polysomnography is recommended in children with symptoms of OSA, or at the stage of becoming wheelchair-bound. In patients with the early stages of respiratory failure, assessment with polysomnography-identified sleep hypoventilation and assisted in initiating NIV.

Risk of non-small cell lung cancer and the cytochrome P4501A1 Ile462Val polymorphism

Objective: The Ile462Val substitution in the cytochrome P450 1A1 gene (CYP1A1) results in increased enzymatic activity. Preliminary data suggesting a link between this polymorphism and lung cancer risk in Caucasians are inconsistent, reflecting small sample sizes and the relatively low frequency of the variant. Methods: The data set consisted of 1050 primary non-small cell lung cancer cases and 581 controls, a large homogenous population designed specifically to address previous inconsistencies. Patients were genotyped using a PCR-RFLP technique. Results: Carriers of the valine allele, CYP1A1*2C, (Ile/Val or Val/Val genotypes) were significantly over-represented in non-small cell lung cancer compared to controls (OR=1.9; 95% CI=1.2-2.9; p=0.005) when adjusted for confounders, particularly in women (OR=4.6; 95% CI=1.7-12.4; p=0.003). The valine variant was statistically significantly over-represented in cases of lung cancer younger than the median age (64 years) (OR=2.5; 95% CI=1.3-4.8; p=0.005) and cases with less than the median cumulative tobacco-smoke exposure (46 pack-years) (OR=2.4; 95% CI=1.3-4.7; p=0.007). Conclusions: These new data establish an association between the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and the risk of developing non-small cell lung cancer, especially among women.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: current burden and future projections

Information about the comparative magnitude of the burden from various diseases and injuries is a critical input into building the evidence base for health policies and programmes. Such information should be based on a critical evaluation of all available epidemiological data using standard and comparable procedures across diseases and injuries, including information on the age at death and the incidence, duration and severity of cases who do not die prematurely from the disease. A summary measure, disability-adjusted life yrs (DALYs), has been developed to simultaneously measure the amount of disease burden due to premature mortality and the amount due to the nonfatal consequences of disease.

Measuring the global burden of disease and epidemiological transitions: 2002-2030

Any planning process for health development ought to be based on a thorough understanding of the health needs of the population. This should be sufficiently comprehensive to include the causes of premature death and of disability, as well as the major risk factors that underlie disease and injury. To be truly useful to inform health-policy debates, such an assessment is needed across a large number of diseases, injuries and risk factors, in order to guide prioritization. The results of the original Global Burden of Disease Study and, particularly, those of its 2000-2002 update provide a conceptual and methodological framework to quantify and compare the health of populations using a summary measure of both mortality and disability: the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY). Globally, it appears that about 5 6 million deaths occur each year, 10. 5 million (almost all in poor countries) in children. Of the child deaths, about one-fifth result from perinatal causes such as birth asphyxia and birth trauma, and only slightly less from lower respiratory infections. Annually, diarrhoeal diseases kill over 1.5 million children, and malaria, measles and HIV/AIDS each claim between 500,000 and 800,000 children. HIV/AIDS is the fourth leading cause of death world-wide (2.9 million deaths) and the leading cause in Africa. The top three causes of death globally are ischaemic heart disease (7.2 million deaths), stroke (5.5 million) and lower respiratory diseases (3.9 million). Chronic obstructive lung diseases (COPD) cause almost as many deaths as HIV/AIDS (2.7 million). The leading causes of DALY, on the other hand, include causes that are common at young ages [perinatal conditions (7. 1 % of global DALY), lower respiratory infections (6.7%), and diarrhoeal diseases (4.7%)] as well as depression (4.1%). Ischaemic heart disease and stroke rank sixth and seventh, retrospectively, as causes of global disease burden, followed by road traffic accidents, malaria and tuberculosis. Projections to 2030 indicate that, although these major vascular diseases will remain leading causes of global disease burden, with HIV/AIDS the leading cause, diarrhoeal diseases and lower respiratory infections will be outranked by COPD, in part reflecting the projected increases in death and disability from tobacco use.

Expression and methylation pattern of TSLC1 cascade genes in lung carcinomas

TSLC1 (tumor suppressor in lung cancer-1, IGSF4) encodes a member of the immunoglobulin superfamily molecules, which is involved in cell-cell adhesion. TSLC1 is connected to the actin cytoskeleton by DAL-1 (differentially expressed in adenocarcinoma of the lung-1, EPB41L3) and it directly associates with MPP3, one of the human homologues of a Drosophila tumor suppressor gene, Discs large. Recent data suggest that aberrant promoter methylation is important for TSLC1 inactivation in lung carcinomas. However, little is known about the other two genes in this cascade, DAL-1 and MPP3. Thus, we investigated the expression and methylation patterns of these genes in lung cancer cell lines, primary lung carcinomas and nonmalignant lung tissue samples. By reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, loss of TSLC1 expression was observed in seven of 16 (44%) non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cell lines and in one of 11 (9%) small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) cell lines, while loss of DAL- 1 expression was seen in 14 of 16 (87%) NSCLC cell lines and in four of 11 (36%) SCLC cell lines. By contrast, MPP3 expression was found in all tumor cell lines analysed. Similar results were obtained by microarray analysis. TSLC1 methylation was seen in 13 of 39 (33%) NSC LC cell lines, in one of 11 (9%) SCLC cell lines and in 100 of 268 (37%) primary NSCLCs. DAL-1 methylation was observed in 17 of 39 (44%) NSCLC cell lines, in three of 11 (27%) SCLC cell lines and in 147 of 268 (55%) primary NSCLCs. In tumors of NSCLC patients with stage II-III disease, DAL-1 methylation was seen at a statistically significant higher frequency compared to tumors of patients with stage I disease. A significant correlation between loss of expression and methylation of the genes in lung cancer cell lines was found. Overall, 65% of primary NSCLCs had either TSLC1 or DAL-1 methylated. Methylation of one of these genes was detected in 59% of NSCLC cell lines; however, in SCLC cell lines, methylation was much less frequently observed. The majority of nonmalignant lung tissue samples was not TSLC1 and DAL-1 methylated. Re-expression of TSLC1 and DAL-1 was seen after treatment of lung cancer cell lines with 5-aza-2$-deoxy-cytidine. Our results suggest that methylation of TSLC1 and/or DAL-1, leading to loss of their expression, is an important event in the pathogenesis of NSCLC.

Antibacterial dosing in intensive care: Pharmacokinetics, degree of disease and pharmacodynamics of sepsis

Treatment of sepsis remains a significant challenge with persisting high mortality and morbidity. Early and appropriate antibacterial therapy remains an important intervention for such patients. To optimise antibacterial therapy, the clinician must possess knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of commonly used antibacterials and how these parameters may be affected by the constellation of pathophysiological changes occurring during sepsis. Sepsis, and the treatment thereof, increases renal preload and, via capillary permeability, leads to 'third-spacing', both resulting in higher antibacterial clearances. Alternatively, sepsis can induce multiple organ dysfunction, including renal and/or hepatic dysfunction, causing a decrease in antibacterial clearance. Aminoglycosides are concentration-dependent antibacterials and they display an increased volume of distribution (V-d) in sepsis, resulting in decreased peak serum concentrations. Reduced clearance from renal dysfunction would increase the likelihood of toxicity. Individualised dosing using extended interval dosing, which maximises the peak serum drug concentration (C-max)/minimum inhibitory concentration ratio is recommended. beta-Lactams and carbapenems are time-dependent antibacterials. An increase in Vd and renal clearance will require increased dosing or administration by continuous infusion. If renal impairment occurs a corresponding dose reduction may be required. Vancomycin displays predominantly time-dependent pharmacodynamic properties and probably requires higher than conventionally recommended doses because of an increased V-d and clearance during sepsis without organ dysfunction. However, optimal dosing regimens remain unresolved. The poor penetration of vancomycin into solid organs may require alternative therapies when sepsis involves solid organs (e.g. lung). Ciprofloxacin displays largely concentration-dependent kill characteristics, but also exerts some time-dependent effects. The V-d of ciprofloxacin is not altered with fluid shifts or over time, and thus no alterations of standard doses are required unless renal dysfunction occurs. In order to optimise antibacterial regimens in patients with sepsis, the pathophysiological effects of systemic inflammatory response syndrome need consideration, in conjunction with knowledge of the different kill characteristics of the various antibacterial classes. In conclusion, certain antibacterials can have a very high V-d, therefore leading to a low C-max and if a high peak is needed, then this would lead to underdosing. The Vd of certain antibacterials, namely aminoglycosides and vancomycin, changes over time, which means dosing may need to be altered over time. Some patients with serum creatinine values within the normal range can have very high drug clearances, thereby producing low serum drug levels and again leading to underdosing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stage is not a reliable indicator of tumor volume in non-small cell lung cancer: a preliminary analysis of the trans-tasman radiation oncology group 99-05 database

Background: Tumor volume has been shown to be a prognostic factor for the response of some tumors to radiotherapy. TNM stage has prognostic value for patients treated surgically for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but its value is less clear for patients treated by nonsurgical means. This may be because tumor size is not a consistent determinant of T stage or stage group. As part of the preliminary analyses for the Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group 99-05 study, the authors performed this analysis to determine to what extent stage reflects tumor volume. Methods: In this prospective multicenter observational study, patients had to have histologically proven NSCLC, no evidence of disease beyond the primary site or thoracic lymph nodes, and been planned for radical radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy. Tumor volume measurements were based on computed tomography-based treatment planning images. Results: Four hundred four patients were available for analysis. There was a strong correlation between (log) maximum tumor diameter and (log) tumor volume (r = 0.93, p < 0.001). Although there was a highly significant trend of increasing volume with increasing T stage and stage group, when tumors were categorized into four groups according to increasing volume, there was only 55% concordance with T stage and 67% concordance with stage group. Conclusions: There is limited correlation between tumor size and disease stage in patients with NSCLC. This justifies documentation and investigation of size as a potential prognostic factor independent of stage. Maximum tumor diameter may be an adequate substitute for volume as a measurement of size.

Association between glutathione S-transferase M1 and T1 and the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD)

Deficiency of Glutathione S-transferases (GST) M1 and T1 are associated with chronic diseases (e.g. lung cancer, MS) and could be one factor for the risk for CHD.We conducted a pros-pective case-control study in 93 pts. with angiographically proven CHD and 161 controls matched for age ±2y and gender (resulting in n=91 pairs, of which 18 were female). Genes coding for functional GST M1 and T1 were analysed acoording to previously published methods. The association between GST M1, T1 was tested using Fisher's exact test; logistic regression analysis was performed to control for HDL-cholesterol, diabetes smoking, diabetes, hypertension. 41% of cases were smokers, 25% had diabetes and 68% hypertension, corresponding figures for controls were 31%, 13% and 33%. Mean HDL-cholesterol levels were comparable (pts: 46±14 mg/dl, controls: 43± 19 mg/dl). There was no overall significant correlation between functional GST T1 and M1 genotypes and CHD, however, there seems to be an association between GST M1, HDL-cholesterol and CHD. Larger studies are needed to verify these data.

Morphosyntactic and syntactic priming: an investigation of underlying processing mechanisms and the effects of Parkinson’s disease

There is now considerable evidence to suggest that non-demented people with Parkinson's disease (PD) experience difficulties using the morphosyntactic aspects of language. It remains unclear, however, at precisely which point in the processing of morphosyntax, these difficulties emerge. The major objective of the present study was to examine the impact of PD on the processes involved in accessing morphosyntactic information in the lexicon. Nineteen people with PD and 19 matched control subjects participated in the study which employed on-line word recognition tasks to examine morphosyntactic priming for local grammatical dependencies that occur both within (e.g. is going) and across (e.g. she gives) phrasal boundaries (Experiments 1 and 2, respectively). The control group evidenced robust morphosyntactic priming effects that were consistent with the involvement of both pre- (Experiment 1) and post-lexical (Experiment 2) processing routines. Whilst the participants with PD also recorded priming for dependencies within phrasal boundaries (Experiment 1), priming effects were observed over an abnormally brief time course. Further, in contrast to the controls, the PD group failed to record morphosyntactic priming for constructions that crossed phrasal boundaries (Experiment 2). The results demonstrate that attentionally mediated mechanisms operating at both the pre- and post-lexical stages of processing are able to contribute to morphosyntactic priming effects. In addition, the findings support the notion that, whilst people with PD are able to access morphosyntactic information in a normal manner, the time frame in which this information remains available for processing is altered. Deficits may also be experienced at the post-lexical integrational stage of processing.

Discourse priming of homophones in individuals with dominant subcortical lesions, cortical lesions, and Parkinson’s disease

An on-line priming experiment was used to investigate discourse-level processing in four matched groups of subjects: individuals with nonthalamic subcortical lesions (NSL) ( n =10), normal control subjects ( n =10), subjects with Parkinsons disease (PD) ( n =10), and subjects with cortical lesions ( n =10). Subjects listened to paragraphs that ended in lexical ambiguities, and then made speeded lexical decisions on visual letter strings that were: nonwords, matched control words, contextually appropriate associates of the lexical ambiguity, contextually inappropriate associates of the ambiguity, and inferences (representing information which could be drawn from the paragraphs but was not explicitly stated). Targets were presented at an interstimulus interval (ISI) of 0 or 1000ms. NSL and PD subjects demonstrated priming for appropriate and inappropriate associates at the short ISI, similar to control subjects and cortical lesion subjects, but were unable to demonstrate selective priming of the appropriate associate and inference words at the long ISI. These results imply intact automatic lexical processing and a breakdown in discourse-based meaning selection and inference development via attentional/strategic mechanisms.

The prediction of disease risk in genomic medicine

In recent years, the phrase 'genomic medicine' has increasingly been used to describe a new development in medicine that holds great promise for human health. This new approach to health care uses the knowledge of an individual's genetic make-up to identify those that are at a higher risk of developing certain diseases and to intervene at an earlier stage to prevent these diseases. Identifying genes that are involved in disease aetiology will provide researchers with tools to develop better treatments and cures. A major role within this field is attributed to 'predictive genomic medicine', which proposes screening healthy individuals to identify those who carry alleles that increase their susceptibility to common diseases, such as cancers and heart disease. Physicians could then intervene even before the disease manifests and advise individuals with a higher genetic risk to change their behaviour - for instance, to exercise or to eat a healthier diet - or offer drugs or other medical treatment to reduce their chances of developing these diseases. These promises have fallen on fertile ground among politicians, health-care providers and the general public, particularly in light of the increasing costs of health care in developed societies. Various countries have established databases on the DNA and health information of whole populations as a first step towards genomic medicine. Biomedical research has also identified a large number of genes that could be used to predict someone's risk of developing a certain disorder. But it would be premature to assume that genomic medicine will soon become reality, as many problems remain to be solved. Our knowledge about most disease genes and their roles is far from sufficient to make reliable predictions about a patient’s risk of actually developing a disease. In addition, genomic medicine will create new political, social, ethical and economic challenges that will have to be addressed in the near future.

Environmental Risk Factors for Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.

Test–retest repeatability of self-reported environmental exposures in Parkinson’s disease cases and healthy controls

There is substantial disagreement among published epidemiological studies regarding environmental risk factors for Parkinson’s disease (PD). Differences in the quality of measurement of environmental exposures may contribute to this variation. The current study examined the test–retest repeatability of self-report data on risk factors for PD obtained from a series of 32 PD cases recruited from neurology clinics and 29 healthy sex-, age-and residential suburb-matched controls. Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire derived from previous epidemiological studies. High repeatability was demonstrated for ‘lifestyle’ exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70–1.00). Environmental exposures that involved some action by the person, such as pesticide application and use of solvents and metals, also showed high repeatability (kappas>0.78). Lower repeatability was seen for rural residency and bore water consumption (kappa 0.39–0.74). In general, we found that case and control participants provided similar rates of incongruent and missing responses for categorical and continuous occupational, domestic, lifestyle and medical exposures.