A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Generalized quasi mode theory of macroscopic canonical quantization in cavity quantum electrodynamics and quantum optics I. Theory

The quasi mode theory of macroscopic quantization in quantum optics and cavity QED developed by Dalton, Barnett and Knight is generalized. This generalization allows for cases in which two or more quasi permittivities, along with their associated mode functions, are needed to describe the classical optics device. It brings problems such as reflection and refraction at a dielectric boundary, the linear coupler, and the coupling of two optical cavities within the scope of the theory. For the most part, the results that are obtained here are simple generalizations of those obtained in previous work. However the coupling constants, which are of great importance in applications of the theory, are shown to contain significant additional terms which cannot be 'guessed' from the simpler forms. The expressions for the coupling constants suggest that the critical factor in determining the strength of coupling between a pair of quasi modes is their degree of spatial overlap. In an accompanying paper a fully quantum theoretic derivation of the laws of reflection and refraction at a boundary is given as an illustration of the generalized theory. The quasi mode picture of this process involves the annihilation of a photon travelling in the incident region quasi mode, and the subsequent creation of a photon in either the incident region or transmitted region quasi modes.

Generalized quasi mode theory of macroscopic canonical quantization in cavity quantum electrodynamics and quantum optics II. Application to reflection and refraction at a dielectric interface

The generalization of the quasi mode theory of macroscopic quantization in quantum optics and cavity QED presented in the previous paper, is applied to provide a fully quantum theoretic derivation of the laws of reflection and refraction at a boundary. The quasi mode picture of this process involves the annihilation of a photon travelling in the incident region quasi mode, and the subsequent creation of a photon in either the incident region or transmitted region quasi modes. The derivation of the laws of reflection and refraction is achieved through the dual application of the quasi mode theory and a quantum scattering theory based on the Heisenberg picture. Formal expressions from scattering theory are given for the reflection and transmission coefficients. The behaviour of the intensity for a localized one photon wave packet coming in at time minus infinity from the incident direction is examined and it is shown that at time plus infinity, the light intensity is only significant where the classical laws of reflection and refraction predict. The occurrence of both refraction and reflection is dependent upon the quasi mode theory coupling constants between incident and transmitted region quasi modes being nonzero, and it is seen that the contributions to such coupling constants come from the overlap of the mode functions in the boundary layer region, as might be expected from a microscopic theory.

Social cognition, language acquisition and the development of the theory of mind

Theory of Mind (ToM) is the cognitive achievement that enables us to report our propositional attitudes, to attribute such attitudes to others, and to use such postulated or observed mental states in the prediction and explanation of behavior. Most normally developing children acquire ToM between the ages of 3 and 5 years, but serious delays beyond this chronological and mental age have been observed in children with autism, as well is in those with severe sensory impairments. We examine data from Studies of ToM in normally developing children and those with deafness, blindness, autism and Williams syndrome, as well as data from lower primates, in a search for answers to key theoretical questions concerning the origins, nature and representation of knowledge about the mind. In answer to these, we offer a framework according to which ToM is jointly dependent upon language and social experience, and is produced by a conjunction of language acquisition with children's growing social understanding, acquired through conversation and interaction with others. We argue that adequate language and adequate social skills are jointly causally sufficient, and individually causally necessary, for producing ToM. Thus our account supports a social developmental theory of the genesis of human cognition, inspired by the work of Sellars and Vygotsky.

Resolving the puzzle of productive and destructive conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups: A communication accommodation theory approach

This study presents an investigation of the communicative behaviors and strategies employed in the stimulation and management of productive and destructive conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups. Using communication accommodation theory (CAT), we argue that the type and course of conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups is impacted by the communicative behaviors and strategies employed by group members during interactions. Analysis of data from participant observations, non-participant observations, semi-structured interviews, and self-report questionnaires support CA T-based predictions and provide fresh insights into the triggers and management strategies associated with conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups. In particular, results indicated that the more groups used discourse management Strategies, the more they experienced productive conflict. In addition, the use of explanation and checking of own and others' understanding was a major feature of productive conflict, while speech interruptions emerged as a strategy leading to potential destructive conflict. Groups where leaders emerged and assisted in reversing communication breakdowns were better able to manage their discourse, and achieved consensus On task processes. Contributions to the understanding of the triggers and the management of productive conflict in culturally heterogeneous workgroups are discussed.

Quantum interference in optical fields and atomic radiation

We discuss the connection between quantum interference effects in optical beams and radiation fields emitted from atomic systems. We illustrate this connection by a study of the first- and second-order correlation functions of optical fields and atomic dipole moments. We explore the role of correlations between the emitting systems and present examples of practical methods to implement two systems with non-orthogonal dipole moments. We also derive general conditions for quantum interference in a two-atom system and for a control of spontaneous emission. The relation between population trapping and dark states is also discussed. Moreover, we present quantum dressed-atom models of cancellation of spontaneous emission, amplification on dark transitions, fluorescence quenching and coherent population trapping.

Numerical investigations of flow and energy fields near a thermoacoustic couple

The flow field and the energy transport near thermoacoustic couples are simulated using a 2D full Navier-Stokes solver. The thermoacoustic couple plate is maintained at a constant temperature; plate lengths, which are short and long compared with the particle displacement lengths of the acoustic standing waves, are tested. Also investigated are the effects of plate spacing and the amplitude of the standing wave. Results are examined in the form of energy vectors, particle paths, and overall entropy generation rates. These show that a net heat-pumping effect appears only near the edges of thermoacoustic couple plates, within about a particle displacement distance from the ends. A heat-pumping effect can be seen even on the shortest plates tested when the plate spacing exceeds the thermal penetration depth. It is observed that energy dissipation near the plate increases quadratically as the plate spacing is reduced. The results also indicate that there may be a larger scale vortical motion outside the plates which disappears as the plate spacing is reduced. (C) 2002 Acoustical Society of America.