Anthropometric measures in relation to Basal Cell Carcinoma: a longitudinal study

Background: The relationship between anthropometric indices and risk of basal cell carcinoma ( BCC) is largely unknown. We aimed to examine the association between anthropometric measures and development of BCC and to demonstrate whether adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference, and waist/ hip ratio was associated with risk of BCC, independent of sun exposure. Methods: Study participants were participants in a community- based skin cancer prevention trial in Nambour, a town in southeast Queensland ( latitude 26 degrees S). In 1992, height, weight, and waist and hip circumferences were measured for all 1621 participants and weight was remeasured at the end of the trial in 1996. Prevalence proportion ratios were calculated using a log- binomial model to estimate the risk of BCC prior to or prevalent in 1992, while Poisson regression with robust error variances was used to estimate the relative risk of BCC during the follow- up period. Results: At baseline, 94 participants had a current BCC, and 202 had a history of BCC. During the 5- year follow- up period, 179 participants developed one or more new BCCs. We found no significant association between any of the anthropometric measures or indices and risk of BCC after controlling for potential confounding factors including sun exposure. There was a suggestion that short- term weight gain may increase the risk of developing BCC for women only. Conclusion: Adherence to World Health Organisation guidelines for body mass index, waist circumference and waist/ hip ratio is not significantly associated with occurrence of basal cell carcinomas of the skin.

Analysis of dynamic process models for structural insight and model reduction .1. Structural identification measures

An important consideration in the development of mathematical models for dynamic simulation, is the identification of the appropriate mathematical structure. By building models with an efficient structure which is devoid of redundancy, it is possible to create simple, accurate and functional models. This leads not only to efficient simulation, but to a deeper understanding of the important dynamic relationships within the process. In this paper, a method is proposed for systematic model development for startup and shutdown simulation which is based on the identification of the essential process structure. The key tool in this analysis is the method of nonlinear perturbations for structural identification and model reduction. Starting from a detailed mathematical process description both singular and regular structural perturbations are detected. These techniques are then used to give insight into the system structure and where appropriate to eliminate superfluous model equations or reduce them to other forms. This process retains the ability to interpret the reduced order model in terms of the physico-chemical phenomena. Using this model reduction technique it is possible to attribute observable dynamics to particular unit operations within the process. This relationship then highlights the unit operations which must be accurately modelled in order to develop a robust plant model. The technique generates detailed insight into the dynamic structure of the models providing a basis for system re-design and dynamic analysis. The technique is illustrated on the modelling for an evaporator startup. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

True measures of GDP and convergence

Widely used ''purchasing power parity'' comparisons of per capita GDP are not true quantity indexes and are subject to systematic substitution bins. This bias may distort measurement of convergence and divergence. Extending Varian's nonparametric construction of a true index gives the set of true indexes, including the new Ideal Afriat Index. These indexes are utility-consistent and independent of arbitrary reference price vectors. We establish bounds on the dispersion of true multilateral indexes, hence bounds on convergence. International price indexes understate both true GDP dispersion and, where prices are converging over time, the rate of true quantity convergence.

Introduction to Discounted Cash Flow Analysis and Financial Functions in Excel

The financial and economic analysis of investment projects is typically carried out using the technique of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. This module introduces concepts of discounting and DCF analysis for the derivation of project performance criteria such as net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit to cost (B/C) ratios. These concepts and criteria are introduced with respect to a simple example, for which calculations using MicroSoft Excel are demonstrated.