Modelling the conversion of Colombian lowland ecosystems since 1940: Drivers, patterns and rates

In biologically mega-diverse countries that are undergoing rapid human landscape transformation, it is important to understand and model the patterns of land cover change. This problem is particularly acute in Colombia, where lowland forests are being rapidly cleared for cropping and ranching. We apply a conceptual model with a nested set of a priori predictions to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of land cover change for six 50-100 km(2) case study areas in lowland ecosystems of Colombia. Our analysis included soil fertility, a cost-distance function, and neighbourhood of forest and secondary vegetation cover as independent variables. Deforestation and forest regrowth are tested using logistic regression analysis and an information criterion approach to rank the models and predictor variables. The results show that: (a) overall the process of deforestation is better predicted by the full model containing all variables, while for regrowth the model containing only the auto-correlated neighbourhood terms is a better predictor; (b) overall consistent patterns emerge, although there are variations across regions and time; and (c) during the transformation process, both the order of importance and significance of the drivers change. Forest cover follows a consistent logistic decline pattern across regions, with introduced pastures being the major replacement land cover type. Forest stabilizes at 2-10% of the original cover, with an average patch size of 15.4 (+/- 9.2) ha. We discuss the implications of the observed patterns and rates of land cover change for conservation planning in countries with high rates of deforestation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bryophyte propagule banks in a feldmark on subantarctic Macquarie Island

Subantarctic Macquarie Island has substantial areas of feldmark on its plateau above 200 m altitude. Samples of the substrate (5.5 cm in depth) from bare areas of feldmark contained viable propagules of bryophyte species found at adjacent and distant sites on the island. In laboratory conditions propagules of 15 bryophyte taxa germinated, allowing interpretation of reasons for bare patches in feldmark: bryophytes were successful at colonizing stable ground but when surface movement was present, burial and/or damage of propagules and young plants prevented colonization. Spherical moss polsters found in cryoturbatic areas in feldmark, however, represent a growth form that can tolerate surface movement. A conceptual model illustrating processes associated with colonization dynamics of bryophytes on feldmark terraces is presented. Ten of the 15 germinated taxa were nonlocal taxa which currently grow in plant communities at lower and hence warmer altitudes on Macquarie Island. The presence of viable propagules of these taxa provide an immediate and constant potential for dramatic vegetation change with climate change.

Towards an understanding of creativity and innovation within professional services and marketing

Greatly increased competition in the professional services and marketing sectors has reinforced the need for firms to develop an organisational culture that facilitates adaptation to changing conditions and competitive threats. More generally, competitive changes within business environments require new and creative ways of organising and managing firms. In order for marketing practitioners to be ahead of competitors in identifying and meeting customer needs, creative thought is essential. An organisational culture that supports creativity and facilitates the adoption of innovative practices, products and services, improves a firm’s ability to remain competitive within an uncertain environment. This paper presents a conceptual model of an organisational culture supporting creativity and innovation. The model posits relationships between creativity and innovation and organisational performance. The main contribution of the paper is to build a foundation for future research directed primarily towards exploring the relationships in the theoretical model of interest. Implications for marketing practitioners are also considered.

Intelligent decision support for family financial planning

In today’s financial markets characterized by constantly changing tax laws and increasingly complex transactions, the demand for family financial planning (FFP) services is rising dramatically. However, the current trend to develop advisory systems that focus mainly on the financial or investment side fails to consider the whole picture of FFP. Separating financial or investment advice from legal and accounting advice may result in conflicting advice or important omissions that could lead to users suffering financial loss. In this paper, we propose a conceptual model for FFP decision-making process, followed by a novel architecture to support an aggregated FFP decision process by utilizing intelligentagents and Web-services technology. A prototype system for supporting FFP decision is presented to demonstrate the advances of the proposed Web-service multi-agentsbased system architecture and business value.