47 resultados para Exponential Smoothing


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The present study estimated the population pharmacokinetics of lamotrigine in patients receiving oral lamotrigine therapy with drug concentration monitoring, and determined intersubject and intrasubject variability. A total of 129 patients were analyzed from two clinical sites. Of these, 124 patients provided spare data (198 concentration-time points); nine patients (four from a previous group plus five from the current group) provided rich data (431 points). The population analysis was conducted using P-PHARM (TM) (SIMED Scientific Software, Cedex, France), a nonlinear mixed-effect modeling program. A single exponential elimination model (first-order absorption) with heteroscedastic weighting was used. Apparent clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (V/F) were the pharmacokinetic parameters estimated. Covariate analysis was performed to determine which factors explained any of the variability associated with lamotrigine clearance. Population estimates of CL/F and V/F for lamotrigine generated in the final model were 2.14 +/- 0.81 L/h and 78.1 +/- 5.1 L/kg. Intersubject and intrasubject variability for clearance was 38% and 38%, respectively. The covariates of concomitant valproate and phenytoin therapy accounted for 42% of the intersubject variability of clearance. Age, gender, clinic site, and other concomitant antiepileptic drugs did not influence clearance. This study of the population pharmacokinetics of lamotrigine in patients using the drug clinically provides useful data and should lead to better dosage individualization for lamotrigine.

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Large (>1600 mum), ingestively masticated particles of bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon L. Pers.) leaf and stem labelled with Yb-169 and Ce-144 respectively were inserted into the rumen digesta raft of heifers grazing bermuda grass. The concentration of markers in digesta sampled from the raft and ventral rumen were monitored at regular intervals over approximately 144 h. The data from the two sampling sites were simultaneously fitted to two pool (raft and ventral rumen-reticulum) models with either reversible or sequential flow between the two pools. The sequential flow model fitted the data equally as well as the reversible flow model but the reversible flow model was used because of its greater application. The reversible flow model, hereafter called the raft model, had the following features: a relatively slow age-dependent transfer rate from the raft (means for a gamma 2 distributed rate parameter for leaf 0.0740 v. stem 0.0478 h(-1)), a very slow first order reversible flow from the ventral rumen to the raft (mean for leaf and stem 0.010 h(-1)) and a very rapid first order exit from the ventral rumen (mean of leaf and stem 0.44 h(-1)). The raft was calculated to occupy approximately 0.82 total rumen DM of the raft and ventral rumen pools. Fitting a sequential two pool model or a single exponential model individually to values from each of the two sampling sites yielded similar parameter values for both sites and faster rate parameters for leaf as compared with stem, in agreement with the raft model. These results were interpreted as indicating that the raft forms a large relatively inert pool within the rumen. Particles generated within the raft have difficulty escaping but once into the ventral rumen pool they escape quickly with a low probability of return to the raft. It was concluded that the raft model gave a good interpretation of the data and emphasized escape from and movement within the raft as important components of the residence time of leaf and stem particles within the rumen digesta of cattle.

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The two-node tandem Jackson network serves as a convenient reference model for the analysis and testing of different methodologies and techniques in rare event simulation. In this paper we consider a new approach to efficiently estimate the probability that the content of the second buffer exceeds some high level L before it becomes empty, starting from a given state. The approach is based on a Markov additive process representation of the buffer processes, leading to an exponential change of measure to be used in an importance sampling procedure. Unlike changes of measures proposed and studied in recent literature, the one derived here is a function of the content of the first buffer. We prove that when the first buffer is finite, this method yields asymptotically efficient simulation for any set of arrival and service rates. In fact, the relative error is bounded independent of the level L; a new result which is not established for any other known method. When the first buffer is infinite, we propose a natural extension of the exponential change of measure for the finite buffer case. In this case, the relative error is shown to be bounded (independent of L) only when the second server is the bottleneck; a result which is known to hold for some other methods derived through large deviations analysis. When the first server is the bottleneck, experimental results using our method seem to suggest that the relative error is bounded linearly in L.

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We determine the number of F-q-rational points of a class of Artin-Schreier curves by using recent results concerning evaluations of some exponential sums. In particular, we determine infinitely many new examples of maximal and minimal plane curves in the context of the Hasse-Weil bound. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

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Matrix spalling or crushing is one of the important mechanisms of fiber-matrix interaction of fiber reinforced cementitious composites (FRCC). The fiber pullout mechanisms have been extensively studied for an aligned fiber but matrix failure is rarely investigated since it is thought not to be a major affect. However, for an inclined fiber, the matrix failure should not be neglected. Due to the complex process of matrix spalling, experimental investigation and analytical study of this mechanism are rarely found in literature. In this paper, it is assumed that the load transfer is concentrated within the short length of the inclined fiber from the exit point towards anchored end and follows the exponential law. The Mindlin formulation is employed to calculate the 3D stress field. The simulation gives much information about this field. The 3D approximation of the stress state around an inclined fiber helps to qualitatively understand the mechanism of matrix failure. Finally, a spalling criterion is proposed by which matrix spalling occurs only when the stress in a certain volume, rather than the stress at a small point, exceeds the material strength. This implies some local stress redistribution after first yield. The stress redistribution results in more energy input and higher load bearing capacity of the matrix. In accordance with this hypothesis, the evolution of matrix spalling is demonstrated. The accurate prediction of matrix spalling needs the careful determination of the parameters in this model. This is the work of further study. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Physical aging of amorphous anhydrous fructose at temperature 5 degreesC and at 22 degreesC was studied using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The dynamic glass transitions temperature, T-g0 for unaged samples was 16 degreesC and 13.3 degreesC for heating rate of 10 degreesC/min and 1 degreesC/min, respectively. The fictive temperature, T-f0 for unaged samples calculated by Richardson and Savill method was 12 degreesC, which is close to the dynamic value obtained from the lower DSC heating rate. The fictive temperature T-f of the aged fructose glasses at temperatures both below and above the transition region was fitted well by a non-exponential decay function (Williams-Watts form). Aging above the transition region (22 degreesC) for 18 d increased both the dynamic glass transition temperature T and the fictive temperature T-f. However, aging below the transition region (5 degreesC) for I d increased the dynamic glass transition temperature T-g but decreased the fictive temperature T-f.

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The thin-layer drying behaviour of bananas in a beat pump dehumidifier dryer was examined. Four pre-treatments (blanching, chilling, freezing and combined blanching and freezing) were applied to the bananas, which were dried at 50 degreesC with an air velocity of 3.1 m s(-1) and with the relative humidity of the inlet air of 10-35%. Three drying models, the simple model, the two-term exponential model and the Page model were examined. All models were evaluated using three statistical measures, correlation coefficient, root means square error, and mean absolute percent error. Moisture diffusivity was calculated based on the diffusion equation for an infinite cylindrical shape using the slope method. The rate of drying was higher for the pre-treatments involving freezing. The sample which was blanched only did not show any improvement in drying rate. In fact, a longer drying time resulted due to water absorption during blanching. There was no change in the rate for the chilled sample compared with the control. While all models closely fitted the drying data, the simple model showed greatest deviation from the experimental results. The two-term exponential model was found to be the best model for describing the drying curves of bananas because its parameters represent better the physical characteristics of the drying process. Moisture diffusivities of bananas were in the range 4.3-13.2 x 10(-10) m(2)s(-1). (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

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Orebody modelling, support effects and the estimation of recoverable reserves are key parts of open pit optimization studies. A case study is presented on the estimation of recoverable reserves using an implementation of indicator kriging where metal quantity is used to select cutoffs, and support corrections founded on a conditional simulation approach. Mining selectivity is explored in the subsequent optimization study to compare results from indicator kriging of grade estimates on a regular size blocks and indicator kriging estimates on small size blocks. The use of indicator kriging models adjusted for a given selectivity and the use of grade proportions in each block for the optimization study, provide a presentation of the expected ore recovery for a predefined level of selectivity. The case study shows that indicator kriging estimation with full accounting of block grade distributions generates substantially better results in the pit optimization study. In addition, the adverse effects of small blocks and over-smoothing on optimization results are illustrated.

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Plasma concentrations of growth hormone (GH) were measured in the brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) pouch young from 25 through to 198 days post-partum (n=71). GH concentrations were highest early in pouch life (around 100 ng/ml), and thereafter declined in an exponential fashion to reach adult concentrations (10.8 +/- 1.8 ng/ml; n=21) by approximately 121-145 days post-partum, one to two months before the young is weaned. Growth hormone-binding protein (GHBP), which has been shown to modify the cellular actions of GH in eutherian mammals, was identified for the first time in a marsupial. Based on size exclusion gel filtration, possum GHBP had an estimated molecular mass of approximate to 65 kDa, similar to that identified in other mammalian species, and binding of I-125-labelled human GH (hGH) was displaced by excess hGH (20 mug). An immunoprecipitation method, in which plasma GHBP was rendered polyethylene glycol precipitable with a monoclonal antibody to the rabbit GHBP/GH receptor (MAb 43) and labelled with I-125-hGH, was used to quantitate plasma GHBP by Scatchard analysis in the developing (pooled plasma samples) and adult (individual animals) possums. Binding affinity (K-a) values in pouch young aged between 45 and 54 and 144 and 153 days post-partum varied between 1.0 and 2.4 x 10(9)/M, which was slightly higher than that in adult plasma (0.96 +/- 0.2 x 10(9)/M, n = 6). Binding capacity (B-max) values increased from non-detectable levels in animals aged 25-38 days post-partum to reach concentrations around half that seen in the adult (1.4 +/- 0.2 x 10(-9) M) by about 117 days post-partum and remained at this level until 153 days post-partum. Therefore, in early pouch life when plasma GH concentrations are highest, the very low concentrations of GHBP are unlikely to be important in terms of competing with GH-receptor for ligand or altering the half-life of circulating GH.

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Knowledge, especially scientific and technological knowledge, grows according to knowledge trajectories and guideposts that make up the prior knowledge of an organization. We argue that these knowledge structures and their specific components lead to successful innovation. A firm's prior knowledge facilitates the absorption of new knowledge, thereby renewing a firm's systematic search, transfer and acquisition of knowledge and capabilities. In particular, the exponential growth in biotechnology is characterized by the convergence of disparate scientific and technological knowledge resources. This paper examines the shift from protein-based to DNA-based diagnostic technologies as an example, to quantify the value of a firm's prior knowledge using relative values of knowledge distance. The distance between core prior knowledge and the rate of transition from one knowledge system to another has been identified as a proxy for the value a firm's prior knowledge. The overall difficulty of transition from one technology paradigm to another is discussed. We argue this transition is possible when the knowledge distance is minimal and the transition process has a correspondingly high value of absorptive capacities. Our findings show knowledge distance is a determinant of the feasibility, continuity and capture of scientific and technological knowledge. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The Lanczos algorithm is appreciated in many situations due to its speed. and economy of storage. However, the advantage that the Lanczos basis vectors need not be kept is lost when the algorithm is used to compute the action of a matrix function on a vector. Either the basis vectors need to be kept, or the Lanczos process needs to be applied twice. In this study we describe an augmented Lanczos algorithm to compute a dot product relative to a function of a large sparse symmetric matrix, without keeping the basis vectors.

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Adiabatic self-heating tests were carried out on five New Zealand coal samples ranging in rank from lignite to high-volatile bituminous. Kinetic parameters of oxidation were obtained front the self-heating curves assuming Arrhenius behaviour. The activation energy E (kJ mol(-1)) and the pre-exponential factor A (s(-1)) were determined in the temperature range of 70-140 degreesC. The activation energy exhibited a definite rank relationship with a minimum E of 55 kJ mol(-1) occurring at a Suggate rank of similar to6.2 corresponding to subbituminous C. Either side of this rank there was a noticeable increase in the activation energy indicating lower reactivity of the coal. A similar rank trend was also observed in the R-70 self-heating rate index values that were taken from the initial portion of the self-heating curve front 40 to 70 degreesC. From these results it is clear that the adiabatic method is capable of providing reliable kinetic parameters of coal oxidation.

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The volume of the primary (PCS) and secondary (SCS) circulatory system in the Atlantic cod Gadus morhua was determined using a modified dye dilution technique. Cod (N=10) were chronically cannulated in the second afferent branchial artery with PE-50 tubing. Evans Blue dye was bound to harvested fish plasma at a concentration of 1 mg dye ml(-1) plasma, and injected at a concentration of 1 mg kg(-1) body mass. Serial sampling from the cannula produced a dye dilution curve, which could be described by a double exponential decay equation. Curve analysis enabled the calculation of the primary circulatory and total distribution volume. The difference between these volumes is assumed to be the volume of the SCS. From the dilution curve, it was also possible to calculate flow rates between and within the systems. The results of these experiments suggest a plasma volume in the PCS of 3.42+/-0.89 ml 100 g(-1) body mass, and in the SCS of 1.68+/-0.35 ml 100 g(-1) body mass (mean +/- S.D.) or approximately 50% that of the PCS. Flow rates to the SCS were calculated as 2.7% of the resting cardiac output. There was an allometric relationship between body mass and blood volumes. Increasing condition factor showed a tendency towards smaller blood volumes of the PCS, expressed as percentage body mass, but this was not evident for the volume of the SCS.

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Objective To investigate the effect of lipophilicity on the percutaneous penetration of a homologous series of alcohols through canine skin Design Skin harvested from Greyhound thorax was placed in Franz-type diffusion cells and the in vitro passage of radio-labelled (C-14) alcohols (ethanol, butanol, hexanol and octanol (Log P 0.19 - 3.0)) through separate skin sections was measured in replicates of five. Permeability coefficient (k(P), cm/h), maximum flux (J(max), mol/cm(2)/h) and residue remaining within the skin were determined. Results The k(P) increased with increasing lipophilicity (6.2 x 10(-4) +/- 1.6 x 10(-4) cm/h for ethanol to 1.8 x 10(-2) 3.6 x 10(-3) cm/h for octanol). Alcohol residues remaining within each skin sample followed a similar pattern. An exponential decrease in Jmax with increasing lipophilicity was observed. Conclusion Changes in canine skin permeability occur with increasing alcohol lipophilicity. This finding has practical consequences for the design of topical formulations and optimisation of drug delivery through animal skin.

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Deterioration of concrete or reinforcing steel through excessive contaminant concentration is often the result of repeated wetting and drying cycles. At each cycle, the absorption of water carries new contaminants into the unsaturated concrete. Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is used with large concrete samples to observe the shape of the wetting profile during a simple one-dimensional wetting process. The absorption of water by dry concrete is modelled by a nonlinear diffusion equation with the unsaturated hydraulic diffusivity being a strongly nonlinear function of the moisture content. Exponential and power functions are used for the hydraulic diffusivity and corresponding solutions of the diffusion equation adequately predict the shape of the experimental wetting profile. The shape parameters, describing the wetting profile, vary little between different blends and are relatively insensitive to subsequent re-wetting experiments allowing universal parameters to be suggested for these concretes.