Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

The genetic and environmental relationship between the interpersonal sensitivity measure (IPSM) and the personality dimensions of Eysenck and Cloninger

A shortened version of the Interpersonal Sensitivity Measure (IPSM) developed to predict depression prone personalities was administered in a self-report questionnaire to a community-based sample of 3269 Australian twin pairs aged 18-28 years, along with Eysenck's EPQ and Cloninger's TPQ. The IPSM included four sub-scales: Separation Anxiety (SEP); Interpersonal Sensitivity (INT); Fragile Inner-Self (FIS); and Timidity (TIM). Univariate analysis revealed that individual differences in the IPSM sub-scale scores were best explained by additive genetic and specific environmental effects. Confirming previous research findings, familial aggregation for the EPQ and TPQ personality dimensions was entirely due to additive genetic effects. In the multivariate case, a model comprising additive genetic and specific environmental effects best explained the covariation between the latent factors for male and female twin pairs alike. The EPQ and TPQ dimensions accounted for moderate to large proportions of the genetic variance (40-76%) in the IPSM sub-scales, while most of the non-shared environment variance was unique to the IPSM sub-scales. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethanol and gene expression in brain

This article represents the proceedings of a symposium at the 2000 ISBRA Meeting in Yokohama, Japan. The chairs were Izuru Matusmoto and Peter A. Wilce. The presentations were (1) GABA receptor subunit expression in the human alcoholic brain, by Tracey Buckley and Peter Dodd; (2) NMDAR gene expression during ethanol addiction, by Jorg Puzke, Rainer Spanagel, Walther Zieglgansberger, and Gerald Wolf; (3) Differentially expressed gene in the nucleus accumbens from ethanol-administered rat, by Shuangying Leng; (4) Expression of a novel gene in the alcoholic brain, by Peter A. Wilce; and (5) Investigations of haplotypes of the dopamine Da-receptor gene in alcoholics, by Hans Rommelspacher, Ulrich Finckh, and Lutz G. Schmidt.

Ethanol-related adaptive changes and physical dependence in rats after exposure to ethanol

Adaptive changes that occur after chronic exposure to ethanol are an important component in the development of physical dependence. We have focused our research on ethanol-induced changes in the expression of several genes that may be important in adaptation. In this article, we describe adaptive changes at the level of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor, in the protein expression and activity of the Egr transcription factors, and in the expression of a novel gene of unknown function. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Determination of reference values for glucose tolerance, insulin tolerance, and insulin sensitivity tests in clinically normal cats

Objective-To determine reference values and test variability for glucose tolerance tests (GTT), insulin tolerance tests (ITT), and insulin sensitivity tests (IST) in cats, Animals-32 clinically normal cats. Procedure-GTT, ITT, and IST were performed on consecutive days. Tolerance intervals tie, reference values) were calculated as means +/- 2.397 SD for plasma glucose and insulin concentrations, half-life of glucose (T-1/2glucose), rate constants for glucose disappearance (K-glucose and K-itt), and insulin sensitivity index (S-l). Tests were repeated after 6 weeks in 8 cats to determine test variability. Results-Reference values for T-1/2glucose, K-glucose, and fasting plasma glucose and insulin concentrations during GTT were 45 to 74 minutes, 0.93 to 1.54 %/min, 37 to 104 mg/dl, and 2.8 to 20.6 muU/ml, respectively. Mean values did not differ between the 2 tests. Coefficients of variation for T-1/2glucose, K-glucose, and fasting plasma glucose and insulin concentrations were 20, 20, 11, and 23%, respectively. Reference values for K-itt were 1.14 to 7.3%/min, and for S-l were 0.57 to 10.99 x 10(-4) min/muU/ml. Mean values did not differ between the 2 tests performed 6 weeks apart, Coefficients of variation for K-itt and S-l were 60 and 47%, respectively. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-GTT, ITT, and IST can be performed in cats, using standard protocols. Knowledge of reference values and test variability will enable researchers to better interpret test results for assessment of glucose tolerance, pancreatic beta -cell function, and insulin sensitivity in cats.

A single beta subunit M2 domain residue controls the picrotoxin sensitivity of alpha beta heteromeric glycine receptor chloride channels

This study investigated the residues responsible for the reduced picrotoxin sensitivity of the alpha beta heteromeric glycine receptor relative to the alpha homomeric receptor. By analogy with structurally related receptors, the beta subunit M2 domain residues P278 and F282 were considered the most likely candidates for mediating this effect. These residues align with G254 and T258 of the alpha subunit. The T258A, T258C and T258F mutations dramatically reduced the picrotoxin sensitivity of the alpha homomeric receptor. Furthermore, the converse F282T mutation in the beta subunit increased the picrotoxin sensitivity of the alpha beta heteromeric receptor. The P278G mutation in the beta subunit did not affect the picrotoxin sensitivity of the alpha beta heteromer. Thus, a ring of five threonines at the M2 domain depth corresponding to alpha subunit T258 is specifically required for picrotoxin sensitivity. Mutations to alpha subunit T258 also profoundly influenced the apparent glycine affinity. A substituted cysteine accessibility analysis revealed that the T258C sidechain increases its pore exposure in the channel open state. This provides further evidence for an allosteric mechanism of picrotoxin inhibition, but renders it unlikely that picrotoxin las an allosterically acting 'competitive' antagonist) binds to this residue.

Altered shoot/root Na+ distribution and bifurcating salt sensitivity in Arabidopsis by genetic disruption of the Na+ transporter AtHKTI1

Sodium (Na+) is toxic to most plants, but the molecular mechanisms of plant Na+ uptake and distribution remain largely unknown. Here we analyze Arabidopsis lines disrupted in the Na+ transporter AtHKT1. AtHKT1 is expressed in the root stele and leaf vasculature. athkt1 null plants exhibit lower root Na+ levels and are more salt resistant than wild-type in short-term root growth assays. In shoot tissues, however, athkt1 disruption produces higher Na+ levels, and athkt1 and athktl/sos3 shoots are Na+-hypersensitive in long-term growth assays. Thus wild-type AtHKT1 controls root/shoot Na+ distribution and counteracts salt stress in leaves by reducing leaf Na+ accumulation. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. on behalf of the Federation of European Biochemical Societies.

Reflections on onset-rime and phoneme sensitivity as predictors of beginning word reading

Rival claims have been made concerning the importance of rime sensitivity as a predictor of early word reading skill. Hulme et al. (2002) suggested that phoneme sensitivity is more strongly predictive of word reading ability than is onset-rime sensitivity. An examination of two independent data sets suggests that, although onset-rime sensitivity typically predicts school entrants' later word reading skill, phoneme sensitivity does predict more variation. However, multiple regression analyses do not reveal the level of phonological sensitivity that children need in order to understand alphabetic reading instruction. This issue is crucial to the detection of children at risk for reading failure and for the design of intervention programs for these children. A different analytic strategy is described for addressing this issue. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

The effect of water, brine and ethanol flotation on the quality and shelf life of macadamia kernels 2. Kernel pieces

Raw macadamia kernel pieces were immersed in water (specific gravity 1.00 g/cm(3)), brine (SG 1.02 g/cm(3)) or ethanol solution (SG 0.97 g/cm(3)) for 30 or 60 s, then re-dried to below 1.5% moisture (wet basis) and stored under vacuum for 0, 4 and 12 months. Flotation in water had no effect on the quality or shelf life of the kernel pieces over 12 months storage, as measured by sensory evaluation of the kernels and chemical analysis of the kernel oil. Immersion in a salt solution caused unacceptable changes in quality during storage, increasing as storage time increased. Flotation in dilute ethanol also caused unacceptable quality changes during storage. Therefore, only flotation of macadamia kernel pieces in water can be recommended for commercial operations. Microbiological concerns with such a process still need to be addressed.

Neonatal ethanol exposure reduces AMPA but not NMDA receptor levels in the rat neocortex

Fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) is the leading cause of mental retardation in western society. We investigated possible changes in glutamate receptor levels in neonatal animals following ethanol exposure using radioligand binding and western blot analysis. We used a vapor chamber to administer ethanol to neonatal Wistar rats 3 h a day from postnatal day (PND) 4-9. A separation control group was separated from their mothers for the same time and duration as the vapor treatment, while a normal control group was left to develop normally. Daily ethanol administrations resulted in decreased brain weight and body weight, as well as microencephaly (decreased brain:body weight ratio). Neither the affinity nor maximum binding of [H-3]MK-801 (dizoclipine maleate) in the cortex of PND10 rats differed between treatment groups. Western blot analysis also failed to reveal any changes in NMDAR1, NMDAR2A, or NMDAR2B receptor levels. In contrast, the AMPA receptor subunit GluR1 was greatly reduced in vapor-treated pups compared with control pups, as revealed by western blot analysis. A similar reduction was found in westerns with an antibody recognizing the GluR2 and 4 subunits. These results indicate that ethanol reduces AMPA rather than NMDA receptors in the developing neocortex, possibly by blocking NMDA receptors during development. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.