Changes in neighborhood walking are related to changes in perceptions of environmental attributes

Background: Several studies have found significant cross-sectional associations of perceived environmental attributes with physical activity behaviors. Prospective relations with environmental factors have been examined for vigorous activity, but not for the moderate-intensity activities that environmental and policy initiatives are being designed to influence. Purpose: To examine prospective associations of changes in perceptions of local environmental attributes with changes in neighborhood walking. Methods: Baseline and 10-week follow-up telephone interviews with 512 adults (49% men). Results: Men who reported positive changes in aesthetics and convenience were twice as likely to increase their walking. Women who reported positive changes in convenience were more than twice as likely to have increased their walking. There were contrasting findings for men and women who reported traffic as less of a problem: Men were 61% less likely to have increased walking; however women were 76% more likely to have done so. Conclusions: Further studies are needed to determine the possibly causal nature of such environment-behavior relations and to elucidate relevant gender differences. Such evidence will provide underpinnings for public health initiatives to increase participation in physical activity.

Associations of location and perceived environmental attributes with walking in neighborhoods

Purpose. Ecological models highlight the importance of environmental influences. We examined associations of coastal versus noncoastal location and perceived environmental attributes with neighborhood walking, total walking, and total activity. Methods. Telephone interviews with 800 faculty and general staff of an Australian university. Results. Men were significantly more likely to walk in their neighborhood if they lived in a coastal location (odds ratio [OR] = 1.66), and they highly rated environmental aesthetics (OR = 1.91), convenience of facilities (OR = 2.20), and access to facilities (OR = 1.98). For women, neighborhood walking was associated with high ratings of convenience (OR = 3.78) but was significantly less likely if they had high ratings for access (OR = 0.48). For total walking and total physical activity, few significant associations emerged. Conclusions. Environmental attributes were related to walking in the neighborhood but not to more general activity indices. Understanding gender-specific environmental correlates of physical activity should be a priority.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Country of birth, country of residence, and menopausal transitions and symptoms: British birth cohort and Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

Objective: To explore endocrine-related and general symptoms among three groups of middle-aged women defined by country of birth and country of residence, in the context of debates about biological, cultural and other factors in menopause. Methods: British-born women participating in a British birth cohort study (n=1,362) and age-matched Australian-born (n=1,724) and British-born (n=233) Australian women selected from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) responded to two waves of surveys at ages 48 and 50. Results: Australian-Australian and British-Australian women report reaching menopause later than British-British women, even after accounting for smoking status and parity. Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) use was lower and hysterectomy was more common among both Australian groups, probably reflecting differences in health services between Britain and Australia. The Australian-Australian and British-Australian groups were more likely to report endocrine-related symptoms than the British-British group, even after adjusting for menopausal status. British-British women were more likely to report some general symptoms. Conclusions: Symptom reporting is high among Australian and British midlife women and varies by country of residence, country of birth and menopausal status. Implications: The data do not support either a simple cultural or a simple biological explanation for differences in menopause experience.

Relative accuracy and predictive ability of direct valuation methods, price to aggregate earnings method and a hybrid approach

In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm-quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricingerror and return-prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.

Prospective study of individual, social, and environmental predictors of physical activity: women's leisure running

Background: Understanding and influencing the determinants of physical activity is an important public health challenge. We used prospective data to examine the influence of individual, social, and environmental factors on physical activity behaviour, using regular running as the behavioural model. Methods: Over 500 middle-aged women completed two consecutive questionnaires in 2000 and 2002. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine factors predicting adoption of and regression from regular leisure-time running during the follow-up. Results: Women who frequently used behavioural change skills were more likely to adopt regular running (OR=4.0, CI=1.7-9.5). There was an interaction between the enjoyment of running and family support: those who rated enjoyment of running high and reported high family support were less likely to adopt running (OR= 0.2, CI = 0.1-0.5). Women who reported infrequent use of motives were more likely (OR = 3.3, CI = 1.6-6.9) to regress from regular running. There was an interaction between perceived health and the neighbourhood environment: those who perceived themselves to be in poor health and had an unattractive neighbourhood were more likely (OR = 2.7, CI = 0.9-8.3) to regress from regular running. Conclusions: Behavioural skills and enjoyment may be of particular importance for the adoption of regular activity; social support and an aesthetically attractive neighbourhood are likely to have a key role in encouraging maintenance. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consistency of epidemiologic estimates

Background: The epidemiology of a disease describes numbers of people becoming incident, being prevalent, recovering, surviving, and dying from the disease or from other causes. As a matter of accounting principle, the inflow, stock, and outflows must be compatible, and if we could observe completely every person involved, the epidemiologic estimates describing the disease would be consistent. Lack of consistency is an indicator for possible measurement error. Methods: We examined the consistency of estimates of incidence, prevalence, and excess mortality of dementia from the Rotterdam Study. We used the incidence and excess mortality estimates to calculate with a mathematical disease model a predicted prevalence, and compared the predicted to the observed prevalence. Results: Predicted prevalence is in most age groups lower than observed, and the difference between them is significant for some age groups. Conclusions: The observed discrepancy could be due to overestimates of prevalence or excess mortality, or an underestimate of incidence, or a combination of all three. We conclude from an analysis of possible causes that it is not possible to say which contributes most to the discrepancy. Estimating dementia incidence in an aging cohort presents a dilemma: with a short follow-up border-line incident cases are easily missed, and with longer follow-up measurement problems increase due to the associated aging of the cohort. Checking for consistency is a useful strategy to signal possible measurement error, but some sources of error may be impossible to avoid.

Environmental factors that influence the community participation of adults with aphasia: The perspective of service industry workers

Background: The loss of language and the inability to communicate effectively as a result of aphasia often affects community participation. Within the World Health Organisation International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, disability is recognised as a dynamic interaction between the individual's health condition, such as aphasia, and his or her personal and environmental factors. There has been little research identifying the environmental facilitators and barriers to participation for people with aphasia in the community, and no research focusing on the perspective of service industry workers. Aims: This study aimed to identify barriers and facilitators to community participation for adults with aphasia from the perspective of service industry workers. Methods & Procedures: Eight focus groups were conducted with 24 service industry employees. Transcripts of the focus group discussions were analysed using qualitative content analysis procedures, and barriers to and facilitators for participation of people with aphasia were identified. Outcomes & Results: Results revealed that the participation of people with aphasia in the community can be affected by many environmental factors within three broad categories: (1) people environmental factors, (2) physical environmental factors, and (3) business or organisational environmental factors. Conclusions: Service industry employees were able to identify a range of factors that would act as barriers and facilitators for people with aphasia. Some of the more significant findings include the lack of other people's awareness about aphasia, the willingness of service industry workers at the individual level to accommodate people with aphasia, and the difficulty in making the necessary system, policy, and procedural changes at the organisational level. Speech pathologists are encouraged to assist service industry providers to be more aphasia-friendly through education and training, in addition to assisting people with aphasia to become self-advocates.

Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Neighborhood environmental factors correlated with walking near home: Using SPACES

Purpose: The physical environment plays an important role in influencing participation in physical activity, although the specific factors that are correlated with different patterns of walking remain to be determined We examined correlations between physical environmental factors and self-reported walking for recreation and transport near home. Methods: The local neighborhood environments (defined as a 400-m radius from the respondent's home) of 1678 adults were assessed for their suitability for walking. The environmental data were collected during 2000 using the Systematic Pedestrian and Cycling Environmental Scan (SPACES) instrument together with information from other sources. We used logistic regression modeling to examine the relationship between the attributes of the physical environment and the self-reported walking behavior undertaken near home. Results: Functional features were correlated with both walking for recreation (odds ratio (OR) 1.62; 95% confidence interval (Cl): 1.20-2.19) and for transport (OR 1.30; 95% Cl: 0.97-1.73). A well-maintained walking surface was the main functional factor associated with walking for recreation (OR 2.04; 95% Cl: 1.43-2.91) and for transport (OR 2.13; 95% Cl: 1.53-2.96). Destination factors, such as shops and public transport, were significantly correlated with walking for transport (OR 1.80; 95% Cl: 1.33-2.44), but not recreation. Conclusion: The findings suggest that neighborhoods with pedestrian facilities that are attractive and comfortable and where there are local destinations (such as shops and public transport) are associated with walking near home.

Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: if we cannot do without, can we do better?

How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.

Small-scale randomized controlled trials need more powerful methods of mediational analysis than the Baron-Kenny method

Objective: To devise more-effective physical activity interventions, the mediating mechanisms yielding behavioral change need to be identified. The Baron-Kenny method is most commonly used. but has low statistical power and May not identify mechanisms of behavioral change in small-to-medium size Studies. More powerful statistical tests are available, Study Design and Setting: Inactive adults (N = 52) were randomized to either a print or a print-plus-telephone intervention. Walking and exercise-related social support Were assessed at baseline, after file intervention, and 4 weeks later. The Baron-Kenny and three alternative methods of mediational analysis (Freedman-Schatzkin; MacKinnon et al.: bootstrap method) were used to examine the effects of social support on initial behavior change and maintenance. Results: A significant mediational effect of social support on initial behavior change was indicated by the MacKinnon et al., bootstrap. and. marginally. Freedman-Schatzkin methods, but not by the Baron-Kenny method. No significant mediational effecl of social support on maintenance of walking was found. Conclusions: Methodologically rigorous intervention studies to identify mediators of change in physical activity are costly and labor intensive, and may not be feasible with large samples. The Use of statistically powerful tests of mediational effects in small-scale studies can inform the development of more effective interventions. (C) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The detection of environmental autoinducing peptide quorum-sensing genes from an uncultured Clostridium sp in landfill leachate reactor biomass

Aims: To elucidate whether a dominant uncultured clostridial (Clostridium thermocellum-like) species in an environmental sample (landfill leachate), possesses an autoinducing peptide (AIP) quorum-sensing (QS) gene, although it may not be functional. Methods and Results: A modified AIP accessory gene regulator (agr)C PCR protocol was performed on extracted DNA from a landfill leachate sample (also characterized by 16S rRNA gene cloning) and the PCR products were cloned, sequenced and phylogenetically analysed. It appeared that two agrC gene phylotypes existed, most closely related to the C. thermocellum agrC gene, differing by only 1 bp. Conclusions: It is possible to specifically identify and characterize the agrC AIP QS gene from uncultured Firmicutes (C. thermocellum-like) bacteria derived from environmental (landfill leachate) sample. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first successful attempt at identifying AIP QS genes from a cellulolytic environment (landfill). The agrC gene was identified as being most closely related to the C. thermocellum agrC gene, the same bacterium identified as being dominant, according to 16S rRNA gene cloning and subsequently fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses, in the same biomass.

Handedness in twins: Joint analysis of data from 35 samples

Simultaneous analysis of handedness data from 35 samples of twins (with a combined sample size of 21,127 twin pairs) found a small but significant additive genetic effect accounting for 25.47% of the variance (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.69-29.51%). No common environmental influences were detected (C = 0.00; 95% Cl 0.00-7.67%), with the majority of the variance, 74.53%, explained by factors unique to the individual (95% Cl 70.49-78.67%). No significant heterogeneity was observed within studies that used similar methods to assess handedness, or across studies that used different methods. At an individual level the majority of studies had insufficient power to reject a purely unique environmental model due to insufficient power to detect familial aggregation. This lack of power is seldom mentioned within studies, and has contributed to the misconception that twin studies of handedness are not informative.