Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Human susceptibility to Schistosoma japonicum in China correlates with antibody isotypes to native antigens

Antibody isotypic responses (IgE, IgA, IgG1, IgG2, IgG3 and IgG4) to Schistosoma japonicum antigens-adult worm (AWA), soluble egg (SEA) and the recombinant proteins TEG (22.6-kDa tegumental antigen, Sj22) and PMY (paramyosin, Sj97)-were measured (in 1998) in a cohort of 179 Chinese subjects 2 years post-treatment. Subjects in the highest intensity re-infection group (> 100 eggs per gram faeces) had significantly higher levels of IgG1 and IgG4 against AWA. Analysis of IgG4/IgE ratios for AWA and SEA linked IgG4 excess to re-infection and IgE excess to non-re-infection. Two years after chemotherapeutic cure, 29 subjects, who were re-infected or never infected but highly water-exposed, were classified as epidemiologically susceptible (n = 15) or epidemiologically insusceptible to infection (n = 14). IgG4 levels against native antigens (AWA and SEA) were higher in susceptibles and IgE levels were higher in insusceptibles but antibody responses to the recombinant proteins (PMY and TEG) showed no clear pattern or difference between susceptibility groups. These and earlier findings provide evidence that immunity develops against schistosomiasis japonica in China and that susceptibility/resistance correlates with antibody isotypes against native schistosome antigens.

Efficacy of praziquantel against Schistosoma japonicum: field evaluation in an area with repeated chemotherapy compared with a newly identified endemic focus in Hunan, China

This study conducted in 1999/2000 was designed to evaluate the efficacy of praziquantel against Schistosoma japonicum in an area with repeated chemotherapy (Area A) compared with a newly identified endemic focus (Area B) in Hunan Province, China. The population size was 2015 and 2180 in Areas A and B, respectively, of which 1129 and 1298 subjects received stool examination. A total of 230 subjects were identified by the Kato-Katz technique (4 smears per person) as being infected with S. japonicum, 124 in Area A (prevalence 11 %) and 106 in Area B (prevalence 8.2%). They were treated with a single oral dose of praziquantel (40 mg/kg) in the non-transmission season. A follow-up stool examination was made 50 days after treatment. Among the 220 cases followed, 22 were found stool-egg-positive, with an overall cure rate of 90 %, and 99 % reduction of infection intensity (eggs per gram stool). No significant difference was found in cure rates between the 2 areas (89.7% vs 90.3%). The efficacy of the drug in the area with repeated chemotherapy was not significantly different from that in the newly identified endemic focus. This study, therefore, suggests that the efficacy of praziquantel against S. japonicum has not changed in the Dongting Lake region after more than 14 years of mass chemotherapy, and there is no evidence of tolerance or resistance of S. japonicum against praziquantel.

Simpson's paradox: A logically benign, empirically treacherous hydra

This article examines Simpson's paradox as applied to the theory of probabilites and percentages. The author discusses possible flaws in the paradox and compares it to the Sure Thing Principle, statistical inference, causal inference and probabilistic analyses of causation.

Stem cells in the aetiopathogenesis and therapy of rheumatic disease

Animal models of autoimmune disease and case reports of patients with these diseases who have been involved in bone marrow transplants have provided important data implicating the haemopoietic stem cell in rheumatic disease pathogenesis. Animal and human examples exist for both cure and transfer of rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and other organ-specific diseases using allogeneic haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. This would suggest that the stem cell in these diseases is abnormal and could be cured by replacement of a normal stem cell although more in vitro data are required in this area. Given the morbidity and increased mortality in some patients with severe autoimmune diseases and the increasing safety of autologous haemopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), pilot studies have been conducted using HSCT in rheumatic diseases. It is still unclear whether an autologous graft will cure these diseases but significant remissions have been obtained which have provided important data for the design of randomized trials of HSCT versus more conventional therapy. Several trials are now open to accrual under the auspices of the European Bone Marrow Transplant Group/European League Against Rheumatism (EBMT/EULAR) registry. Future clinical and laboratory research will need to document the abnormalities of the stem cell of a rheumatic patient because new therapies based on gene therapy or stem cell differentiation could be apllied to these diseases. With increasing safety of allogeneic HSCT it is not unreasonable to predict cure of some rheumatic diseases in the near future.

Primary aldosteronism: Are we diagnosing and operating on too few patients?

Many cases of potentially curable primary aldosteronism are currently likely to be diagnosed as essential hypertension unless screening tests based on suppression of renin are tarried out in all hypertensive patients. More than half of the patients with primary aldosteronism detected in this way have normal circulating potassium levels, so measurement of potassium is not enough to exclude primary aldosteronism. When primary aldosteronism is diagnosed, fewer than one-third of patients are suitable for surgery as initial treatment, but this still represents a significant percentage of hypertensive patients. After excluding glucocorticoid-suppressible primary aldosteronism, adrenal venous sampling is essential to detect unilateral production of aldosterone and diagnose angiotensin-responsive aldosterone-producing adenoma. One cannot rely on the computed tomography scan. If all hypertensive patients are screened for primary aldosteronism and the workup is continued methodically in those with a positive screening test, patients with unilateral overproduction of aldosterone who potentially can be cured surgically are not denied the possibility of cure.

Development of a short-term model using petrophysical logging at Century Mine, North Queensland

Pasminco Century Mine has developed a geophysical logging system to provide new data for ore mining/grade control and the generation of Short Term Models for mine planning. Previous work indicated the applicability of petrophysical logging for lithology prediction, however, the automation of the method was not considered reliable enough for the development of a mining model. A test survey was undertaken using two diamond drilled control holes and eight percussion holes. All holes were logged with natural gamma, magnetic susceptibility and density. Calibration of the LogTrans auto-interpretation software using only natural gamma and magnetic susceptibility indicated that both lithology and stratigraphy could be predicted. Development of a capability to enforce stratigraphic order within LogTrans increased the reliability and accuracy of interpretations. After the completion of a feasibility program, Century Mine has invested in a dedicated logging vehicle to log blast holes as well as for use in in-fill drilling programs. Future refinement of the system may lead to the development of GPS controlled excavators for mining ore.

Factors influencing job valuation: a comparative study of critical care and mon-critical care nurses

This study sought to identify the relationship between three predictor variables. perceived collaboration with medical staff, autonomy and independent actions and an outcome. the value hospital nurses placed on their work. In total 189 critical care and 366 non-critical care nurses completed a mailed survey. Critical cure nurses perceived themselves to have a mure collaborative relationship with the medical staff. described performing actions independent of medical orders more frequently and perceived their jobs to have more value than non-critical care nurses. However the latter group perceived themselves to have more autonomy in their work. Within both groups collaboration and autonomy were significantly, but weak to moderately correlated with job valuation. Simply expanding the work hospital nurses do is unlikely to result in nurses valuing their jobs more. however promoting an environment of respect and sharing between the medical and nursing staff and supporting nurses when they act in an autonomous fashion may positively influence nurses' perceptions of their work. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pediculus humanus capitis infestations in the community: A pilot study into transmission, treatment and factors affecting control

Head lice (Pediculus humanus capitis) infestations affect schoolchildren worldwide, creating social, economic and health consequences for families. Problems with self-detection, chronic infestations and classroom transmission are compounded by increasing resistance of the lice to pediculicides. Public health strategies are based on limited research and little is known about transmission dynamics. Mismanagement and transmission in the general community are blamed for control failure. The purpose of this study was to explore community head-lice experience in Brisbane, Australia, and to identify critical factors underlying control failure. A home-based pilot survey used physical examination to verify transmission and treatment patterns which were self-reported by a group of trace-contact families in addition to other unconnected participants. The survey was enlarged to further compare therapy outcomes and suspected risk factors. The findings reinforce those of previous studies - that children attending school and early childhood centres, and subsequently their families, are most at risk of contracting pediculosis capitis, and some may carry lice for years. First-line (pediculicidal) treatment and even additional physical methods of hand-picking and fine-toothed combing usually fail to eradicate lice quickly and completely (overall cure-rate 39 per cent, n = 84 cases). Failures were linked to hair characteristics. Public education alone may not control pediculosis. Accurate diagnosis requires considerable experience; a strong case exists for returning to institutional surveillance.

The effects of silica fillers on the gelation and vitrification of highly filled epoxy-amine thermosets

Highly filled thermosets are used in applications such as integrated circuit (IC) packaging. However, a detailed understanding of the effects of the fillers on the macroscopic cure properties is limited by the complex cure of such systems. This work systematically quantifies the effects of filler content on the kinetics, gelation and vitrification of a model silica-filled epoxy/amine system in order to begin to understand the role of the filler in IC packaging cure. At high cure temperatures (100 degreesC and above) there appears to be no effect of fillers on cure kinetics and gelation and vitrification times. However, a decrease in the gelation and vitrification times and increase the reaction rate is seen with increasing filler content at low cure temperatures (60-90 degreesC). An explanation for these results is given in terms of catalysation of the epoxy amine reaction by hydrogen donor species present on the silica surface and interfacial effects.

Reinfection with Schistosoma haematobium following school-based chemotherapy with praziquantel in four highly endemic villages in Côte d'Ivoire

We present the comparative evaluation of school-based chemotherapy with praziquantel on Schistosoma haematobium reinfection patterns, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after systematic treatment of schoolchildren in four villages of south-central Côte d'Ivoire. At baseline, very high S. haematobium infection prevalences of 88–94% were found in Taabo Village, located adjacent to a large man-made lake, and in Batera and Bodo, where small dams were constructed. In Assinzé, a village with no man-made environmental alterations, the baseline infection prevalence was significantly lower (67%). The parasitological cure rate, assessed 4 weeks after praziquantel administration in the village with the highest prevalence and intensity of infection, was high (82%), and showed a clear association with infection intensity prior to treatment. Six months after chemotherapy, significant reductions in the prevalence and intensity of infection were observed in all villages. However, infection prevalence was again high in Taabo Village (63%) and in Batera (49%). Different patterns of reinfection occurred in the four villages: rapid reinfection in Taabo Village to reach almost baseline infection prevalence 12 months post-treatment; slow but gradual increase in the prevalence and intensity of infection in Bodo; marked increase in prevalence and intensity of infection during the second year of the follow-up in Assinzé; and prevalence and intensity of infection that remained almost constant between 6 and 24 months post-treatment in Batera. Our study confirms that S. haematobium reinfection patterns largely depend on the local epidemiological setting, which is of central importance to tailoring treatment strategies that are well adapted to these different settings.

Linear ketenimines. Variable structures of C,C-dicyanoketenimines and C,C-bis-sulfonylketenimines

C,C-Dicyanoketenimines 10a-c were generated by flash vacuum thermolysis of ketene NS-acetals 9a-c or by thermal or photochemical decomposition of alpha-azido-,beta-cyanocinnamonitrile 11. In the latter reaction, 3,3-dicyano-2-phenyl-1-azirine 12 is also formed. IR spectroscopy of the keteniminines isolated in Ar matrixes or as neat films, NMR spectroscopy of 10c, and theoretical calculations (B3LYP/6-31G*) demonstrate that these ketenimines have variable geometry, being essentially linear along the CCN-R framework in polar media (neat films and solution), but in the gas phase or Ar matrix they are bent, as is usual for ketenimines. Experiments and calculations agree that a single CN substituent as in 13 is not enough to enforce linearity, and sulfonyl groups are less effective that cyano groups in causing linearity. C,C-Bis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimines 4-5 and a C-cyano-C-(methylsulfonyl)ketenimine 15 are not linear. The compound p-O2NC6H4N=C= C(COOMe)2 previously reported in the literature is probably somewhat linearized along the CCNR moiety. A computational survey (B3LYP/6-31G*) of the inversion barrier at nitrogen indicates that electronegative C-substituents dramatically lower the barrier; this is also true of N-acyl substituents. Increasing polarity causes lower barriers. Although N-alkylbis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimines are not calculated to be linear, the barriers are so low that crystal lattice forces can induce planarity in N-methylbis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimine 3.

Making decisions about treatment for localized prostate cancer

Objective To describe the decision-making processes used by men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer who were considering treatment. Patients and methods Men newly diagnosed with localized prostate cancer from outpatient urology clinics and urologist's private practices were approached before treatment. Their decision-making processes and information-seeking behaviour was assessed; demographic information was also obtained. Results Of 119 men approached, 108 (90%) were interviewed; 91% reported non-systematic decision processes, with deferral to the doctor, positive and negative recollections of others' cancer experiences, and the pre-existing belief that surgery is a better cancer treatment being most common. For systematic information processing the mean (SD, range) number of items considered was 4.19 (2.28, 0-11), with 57% of men considering four or fewer treatment/medical aspects of prostate cancer. Men most commonly considered cancer stage (59%), urinary incontinence (55%) and impotence (51%) after surgery, and low overall mortality (45%). Uncertainty about probabilities for cure was reported by 43% of men and fear of cancer spread by 37%. Men also described uncertainty about the probabilities of side-effects (27%), decisional uncertainty (25%) and anticipated decisional regret (18%). Overall, 73% of men sought information about prostate cancer from external sources, most commonly the Internet, followed by family and friends. Conclusions In general, men did not use information about medical treatments comprehensively or systematically when making treatment decisions, and their processing of medical information was biased by their previous beliefs about cancer and health. These findings have implications for the provision of informational and decisional support to men considering prostate cancer treatment.

Polyspecific malaria antibodies present at the time of infection inhibit the development of immunity to malaria but antibodies specific for the malaria merozoite surface protein, MSP1, facilitate immunity

Serum taken from mice immune to malaria as a result of infection and drug cure, or from mice immunized with a recombinant form of the merozoite surface protein, MSP1, can provide passive protection of recipient mice against the lethal parasite, Plasmodium yoelii YM. However, recipients of MSP1-immune serum go on to develop long-term immunity, whereas recipients of serum from mice naturally immune to malaria rapidly lose their resistance to infection. We demonstrate that 'infection/cure' serum suppresses the development of both antibody and cell-mediated parasite-specific responses in recipients, whereas these develop in recipients of MSP1-specific antibodies. These data have profound implications for our understanding of the development of malaria immunity in babies who passively acquire antibodies from their mothers.

Immunity to malaria after administration of ultra-low doses of red cells infected with Plasmodium falciparum

Background The ability of T cells, acting independently of antibodies, to control malaria parasite growth in people has not been defined. If such cell-mediated immunity was shown to be effective, an additional vaccine strategy could be pursued. Our aim was to ascertain whether or not development of cell-mediated immunity to Plasmodium falciparum blood-stage infection could be induced in human beings by exposure to malaria parasites in very low density. Methods We enrolled five volunteers from the staff at our research institute who had never had malaria. We used a cryopreserved inoculum of red cells infected with P falciparum strain 3D7 to give them repeated subclinical infections of malaria that we then cured early with drugs, to induce cell-mediated immune responses. We tested for development of immunity by measurement of parasite concentrations in the blood of volunteers by PCR of the multicopy gene STEVOR and by following up the volunteers clinically, and by measuring antibody and cellular immune responses to the parasite. Findings After challenge and a extended period without drug cure, volunteers were protected against malaria as indicated by absence of parasites or parasite DNA in the blood, and absence of clinical symptoms. Immunity was characterised by absence of detectable antibodies that bind the parasite or infected red cells, but by the presence of a proliferative T-cell response, involving CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, a cytokine response, consisting of interferon gamma but not interleukin 4 or interleukin 10, induction of high concentrations of nitric oxide synthase activity in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, and a drop in the number of peripheral natural killer T cells. Interpretation People can be protected against the erythrocytic stage of malaria by a strong cell-mediated immune response, in the absence of detectable parasite-specific antibodies, suggesting an additional strategy for development of a malaria vaccine.