Contribution of changes in risk factors to the decline of coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease has been a major cause of mortality in Australian adults, but the rate has declined by 83% from the 1968 peak by the year 2000. The study objective is to determine the contribution of changes in population risk factors - mean serum cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure and tobacco smoking prevalence - to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades. METHODS: Coronary heart disease deaths (International Classification of Disease-9, 410-414) and population by year, age group and sex were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Risk factor levels were obtained from population surveys and estimated average annual changes by period were used to calculate average annual 'attributable' proportional declines in CHD mortality by period (age 35-64 years). RESULTS: Over the period 1968-2000, 74% of male decline and 81% of the female decline in coronary heart disease mortality rate was accounted for by the combined effect of reductions in the three risk factors. In males 36% of the decline was contributed by reductions in diastolic blood pressure, 22% by cholesterol and 16% by smoking. For females 56% was from diastolic blood pressure reduction, 20% from cholesterol and 5% from smoking. Effects of reductions in serum cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality occurred mainly in the 1970s. Declines in diastolic blood pressure had effects on coronary heart disease mortality over the three decades, and declines in tobacco smoking had a significant effect in males in the 1980s. CONCLUSION: Most of the spectacular decline in coronary heart disease mortality over the last three decades in Australia can be ascribed to reductions in population risk factors from primary and secondary prevention.

The effects of domain-specific avoid and prove goal orientations on performance: A multilevel analysis

Recently, goal orientation, a mental framework for understanding how individuals approach learning and achievement situadons, has emerged as an important predictor of performance. This study addressed the effects of domain-specific avoid and prove orientations on performance from the betweenand within-person levels of analysis. One hundred and three participants performed thirty trials of an airtraffic control task. Domain-specific avoid and prove orientations were measured before each trial to assess the effects of changes in goal orientadon on changes in performance (i.e. within-person relationships). Average levels of avoid and prove orientations were calculated to assess the effect of goal orientation on overall performance (i.e. between-person relationships). Findings from the between-person level of analysis revealed that high prove-orientated individuals performed better than low proveorientated individuals. Results also revealed that average goal orientation levels moderated the withinperson relationships. The effect of changes in avoid orientation on changes in performance was stronger for low versus high avoid-oriented individuals while the effect of changes in prove orientadon on changes in performances was stronger for low versus highprove oriented individuals. Implications of these findings are considered.

Effects of phosphorus on the growth and nitrogen fixation rates of Lyngbya majuscula: implications for management in Moreton Bay, Queensland

Significant acetylene reduction and therefore N-2 fixation was observed for Lyngbya majuscula only during dark periods, which suggests that oxygenic photosynthesis and N-2 fixation are incompatible processes for this species. Results from a series of batch and continuous-flow-culture reactor studies showed that the specific growth rate and N-2 fixation rate of L, majuscula increased with phosphate (P-PO4) concentration up to a maximum value and thereafter remained constant. The P-PO4 concentrations corresponding to the maximum N-2 fixation and maximum growth rates were -0.27 and -0.18 muM respectively and these values are denoted as the saturation values for N-2 fixation and growth respectively. Regular monitoring studies in Moreton Bay, Queensland, show that concentrations Of P-PO4 generally exceed these saturation values over a large portion of the Bay and therefore, the growth of the bloom-forming L, majuscula is potentially maximised throughout much of the Bay by the elevated P-PO4 concentrations. Results from other studies suggest that the elevated P-PO4 concentrations in the Bay can be largely attributed to discharges from waste-water treatment plants (WWTPs), and thus it is proposed that the control of the growth of L. majuscula in Moreton Bay will require a significant reduction in the P load from the WWTP discharges. If the current strategy of N load reduction for these discharges is maintained in the absence of substantial P load reduction, it is hypothesised that the growth of L, majuscula and other diazotrophs in Moreton Bay will increase in the future.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

Effects of a change in abundance of elephants on willingness to pay for their conservation

This paper explores the way in which the stated willingness to pay for the conservation of Asian elephants in Sri Lanka varies with hypothetical variations in their abundance. To do that, it relies on results from a sample of residents of Colombo. The willingness to pay function is found to be unusual. It increases at an increasing rate for hypothetical reductions in the elephant population compared to its current level (a level that makes the Asian elephant endangered) and also increases at a decreasing rate for increases in this population from its current level. Rational explanations are given for this relationship. The relationship is, however, at odds with relationships suggested in some of the literature for total economic value as a function of the abundance of a wildlife species. It is suggested that willingness to pay for conservation of a species rationally includes a strategic element and may not always measure the total economic value of a species. Nevertheless, willingness to pay is still policy relevant in such cases.

Effects of azadirachtin on Ctenocephalides felis in the dog and the cat

Azadirachtin-containing neem seed extract is a powerful insect growth regulator, a feeding deterrent and repellent with low toxicity. Unfortunately, azadirachtin degrades rapidly in light, excessive heat or alkalinity. Evaluations of azadirachtin on ectoparasites on animals have been scarce. The purpose of this work was to describe the effects of normal and potentiated azadirachtin on Ctenocephalides felis in the dog or cat. Groups of kennelled greyhounds and domestic cats infested with C. felis were sprayed once with azadirachtin containing neem seed extract with or without diethyltoluamide (Deer) and/or citronella. Methanolic extracts with 200, 1000 or 2400 ppm azadirachtin reduced fleas in a dose-dependent manner. Compared with fleas counted on treated dogs just before treatment and untreated infested dogs, 1000-2400 ppm azadirachtin reduced fleas 93-53% for 19 days. However, combined with 500 ppm Deet and 33% w/v citronella, only 500 ppm azadirachtin reduced fleas 95-62% for 20 days. On cats inoculated with 50 fleas 2 days before treatment, the combination reduced fleas and eggs 100% to day 6 and 83-51% from days 7 to 9. On petri dishes, the combination achieved 100% egg mortality up to day 7 and 80% to day 14 and 38-52% to to days 21-28. Deet, with or without neem seed extract or citronella, and citronella, with or without neem, did not reduce fleas significantly. The results show that azadirachtin reduced fleas in a dose-dependent manner in flea-contaminated environments. In cats, the combination killed most fleas within 24 h, providing effective flea control for 7 days. The results suggest that Deet with citronella potentiated the effect of azadirachtin on C. felis. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Anthocyanin synthesis, growth and nutrient uptake in suspension cultures of strawberry cells

Strawberry (Fragaria ananassa cv. Shikinari) cell suspension cultures carried out in shake flasks for 18 d were closely examined for cell growth, anthocyanin synthesis and the development of pigmented cells in relation to the uptake of carbohydrate, extracellular PO4, NO3, NH4, and calcium. Cell viability, extracellular anthocyanin content, pH and electrical conductivity of the broth were also monitored. The specific growth rate of strawberry cells at exponential phase was 0.27 and 0.28 d(-1) based on fresh and dry weight, respectively. Anthocyanin synthesis was observed to increase continuously to a maximum value of 0.86 mg/g fresh cell weight (FCW) at day 6, and was partially growth-associated. Anthocyanin synthesis was linearly related to the increase in pigmented cell ratio, which increased with time and reached a maximum value of ca. 70% at day 6 due to reduction in cell viability and depletion of substrate. Total carbohydrate uptake was closely associated with increase in cell growth, and glucose was utilized in preference to fructose. Nitrate and ammonia were consumed until 9 d of culture, but phosphate was completely absorbed within 4 d. Calcium was assimilated throughout the growth cycle. After 9 d, cell lysis was observed which resulted in the leakage of intracellular substances and a concomitant pH rise. Anthocyanin was never detected in the broth although the broth became darkly pigmented during the lysis period. This suggests that anthocyanin was synthesized only by viable pigmented cells, and degraded rapidly upon cell death and lysis. Based on the results of kinetic analysis, a model was developed by incorporating governing equations for the ratio of pigmented cells into a Bailey and Nicholson's model. This was verified by comparison with the experimental data. The results suggest Bat the model satisfactorily describes the strawberry cell culture process, and may thus be used for process optimization.

An equivalent algorithm for simulating thermal effects of magma intrusion problems in porous rocks

An equivalent algorithm is proposed to simulate thermal effects of the magma intrusion in geological systems, which are composed of porous rocks. Based on the physical and mathematical equivalence, the original magma solidification problem with a moving boundary between the rock and intruded magma is transformed into a new problem without the moving boundary but with a physically equivalent heat source. From the analysis of an ideal solidification model, the physically equivalent heat source has been determined in this paper. The major advantage in using the proposed equivalent algorithm is that the fixed finite element mesh with a variable integration time step can be employed to simulate the thermal effect of the intruded magma solidification using the conventional finite element method. The related numerical results have demonstrated the correctness and usefulness of the proposed equivalent algorithm for simulating the thermal effect of the intruded magma solidification in geological systems. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.