34 resultados para Distributed lag non-linear model
Resumo:
The importance of the rate of change of the pollution stock in determining the damage to the environment has been an issue of increasing concern in the literature. This paper uses a three-sector (economy, population and environment), non-linear, discrete time, calibrated model to examine pollution control. The model explicitly links economic growth to the health of the environment. The stock of natural resources is affected by the rate of pollution flows, through their impact on the regenerative capacity of the natural resource stock. This can shed useful insights into pollution control strategies, particularly in developing countries where environmental resources are crucial for production in many sectors of the economy. Simulation exercises suggested that, under plausible assumptions, it is possible to reverse undesirable transient dynamics through pollution control expenditure, but this is dependent upon the strategies used for control. The best strategy is to spend money fostering the development of production technologies that reduce pollution rather than spending money dealing with the effects of the pollution flow into the environment. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.
Resumo:
The bulk free radical copolymerization of 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) with N-vinyl-2-pyrrolidone (VP) was carried out to low conversions at 50 degreesC, using benzoyl peroxide (BPO) as initiator. The compositions of the copolymers; were determined using C-13 NMR spectroscopy. The conversion of monomers to polymers was studied using FT-NIR spectroscopy in order to predict the extent of conversion of monomer to polymer. From model fits to the composition data, a statistical F-test revealed that die penultimate model describes die copolymerization better than die terminal model. Reactivity ratios were calculated by using a non-linear least squares analysis (NLLS) and r(H) = 8.18 and r(V) = 0.097 were found to be the best fit values of the reactivity ratios for the terminal model and r(HH) = 12.0, r(VH) = 2.20, r(VV) = 0.12 and r(HV) = 0.03 for the penultimate model. Predictions were made for changes in compositions as a function of conversion based upon the terminal and penultimate models.
Resumo:
Surface diffusion of strongly adsorbing hydrocarbon vapours on activated carbon was measured by using a constant molar flow method (D.D. Do, Dynamics of a semi-batch adsorber with constant molar supply rate: a method for studying adsorption rate of pure gas, Chem. Eng. Sci. 50 (1995) 549), where pure adsorbate is introduced into a semi-batch adsorber at a constant molar flow rate. The surface diffusivity was determined from the analysis of pressure response versus time, using a linear mathematical model developed earlier. To apply the linear theory over the non-linear range of the adsorption isotherm, we implement a differential increment method on the system which is initially equilibrated with some pre-determined loading. By conducting the experiments at different initial loadings, the surface diffusivity can be extracted as a function of loading. Propane, n-butane, n-hexane, benzene, and ethanol were used as diffusing adsorbate on a commercial activated carbon. It is found that the surface diffusivity of these strongly adsorbing vapours increases rapidly with loading, and the surface diffusion flux contributes significantly to the total flux and cannot be ignored. The surface diffusivity increases with temperature according to the Arrhenius law, and for the paraffins tested it decreases with the molecular weight of the adsorbate. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.