Disease risk and mortality prediction in intensive care patients with pneumonia. Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II)

This study of ventilated patients investigated pneumonia risk factors and outcome predictors in 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% community-acquired pneumonia, 24% hospital-acquired pneumonia, 28% ventilator-associated pneumonia) using a prospective survey in 14 intensive care units within Australia and New Zealand. For community acquired pneumonia, mortality increased with immunosuppression (OR 5.32, CI 95% 1.58-17.99, P < 0. 01), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 2.43, CI 95% 1.09-5.44, P = 0. 03) and Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores (OR 1.19, CI 95% 1.08-1.30, P < 0. 001) but improved if appropriate antibiotic changes were made within three days of intensive care unit admission (OR 0.42, CI 95% 0.20-0.86, P = 0.02). For hospital-acquired pneumonia, immunosuppression (OR 6.98, CI 95% 1.16-42.2, P = 0.03) and non-metastatic cancer (OR 3.78, CI 95% 1.20-11.93, P = 0.02) were the principal mortality predictors. Alcoholism (OR 7.80, CI 95% 1.20-1750, P < 0.001), high SOFA scores (OR 1.44, CI 95% 1.20-1.75, P = 0.001) and the isolation of high risk organisms including Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter spp, Stenotrophomonas spp and methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (OR 4.79, CI 95% 1.43-16.03, P = 0.01), were associated with increased mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia. The use of non-invasive ventilation was independently protective against mortality for patients with community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia (OR 0.35, CI 95% 0.18-0.68, P = 0.002). Mortality was similar for patients requiting both invasive and non-invasive ventilation and non-invasive ventilation alone (21% compared with 20% respectively, P = 0.56). Pneumonia risks and mortality predictors in Australian and New Zealand ICUs vary with pneumonia type. A history of alcoholism is a major risk factor for mortality in ventilator-associated pneumonia, greater in magnitude than the mortality effect of immunosuppression in hospital-acquired pneumonia or community-acquired pneumonia. Non-invasive ventilation is associated with reduced ICU mortality. Clinical signs of consolidation worsen, while rationalising antibiotic therapy within three days of ICU admission improves mortality for community-acquired pneumonia patients.

Australian and New Zealand practice in intensive care (ANZPIC II: The spectrum of practice in the diagnosis and management of pneumonia in patients requiring mechanical ventilation

This study of ventilated patients investigated current clinical practice in 476 episodes of pneumonia (48% community-acquired pneumonia, 24% hospital-acquired pneumonia, 28% ventilator-associated pneumonia) using a prospective survey in 14 intensive care units (ICUs) within Australia and New Zealand. Diagnostic methods and confidence, disease severity, microbiology and antibiotic use were assessed. All pneumonia types had similar mortality (community-acquired pneumonia 33%, hospital-acquired pneumonia 37% and ventilator-associated pneumonia 24%, P = 0.15) with no inter-hospital differences (P = 0.08-0.91). Bronchoscopy was performed in 26%, its use predicted by admission hospital (one tertiary: OR 9.98, CI 95% 5.11-19.49, P < 0.001; one regional: OR 629, CI 95% 3.24-12.20, P < 0.001), clinical signs of consolidation (OR 3.72, CI 95% 2.09-662, P < 0.001) and diagnostic confidence (OR 2.19, CI 95% 1.29-3.72, P = 0.004). Bronchoscopy did not predict outcome (P = 0.11) or appropriate antibiotic selection (P = 0.69). Inappropriate antibiotic prescription was similar for all pneumonia types (11-13%, P = 0.12) and hospitals (0-16%, P = 0.25). Blood cultures were taken in 51% of cases. For community-acquired pneumonia, 70% received a third generation cephalosporin and 65% a macrolide. Third generation cephalosporins were less frequently used for mild infections (OR 0.38, CI 95% 0.16-0.90, P = 0.03), hospital-acquired pneumonia (OR 0.40, CI 95% 0.23-0.72, P < 0.01), ventilator-associated pneumonia (OR 0.04, CI 95% 0.02-0.13, P < 0.001), suspected aspiration (OR 0.20, CI 95% 0.04-0.92, P = 0.04), in one regional (OR 0.26, CI 95% 0.07-0.97, P = 0.05) and one tertiary hospital (OR 0.14, CI 95% 0.03-0.73, P = 0.02) but were more commonly used in older patients (OR 1.02, CI 95% 1.01-1.03, P = 0.01). There is practice variability in bronchoscopy and antibiotic use for pneumonia in Australian and New Zealand ICUs without significant impact on patient outcome, as the prevalence of inappropriate antibiotic prescription is low. There are opportunities for improving microbiological diagnostic work-up for isolation of aetiological pathogens.

Cost of tobacco-related diseases, including passive smoking, in Hong Kong

Background: Costs of tobacco-related disease can be useful evidence to support tobacco control. In Hong Kong we now have locally derived data on the risks of smoking, including passive smoking. Aim: To estimate the health-related costs of tobacco from both active and passive smoking. Methods: Using local data, we estimated active and passive smoking-attributable mortality, hospital admissions, outpatient, emergency and general practitioner visits for adults and children, use of nursing homes and domestic help, time lost from work due to illness and premature mortality in the productive years. Morbidity risk data were used where possible but otherwise estimates based on mortality risks were used. Utilisation was valued at unit costs or from survey data. Work time lost was valued at the median wage and an additional costing included a value of US$1.3 million for a life lost. Results: In the Hong Kong population of 6.5 million in 1998, the annual value of direct medical costs, long term care and productivity loss was US$532 million for active smoking and US$156 million for passive smoking; passive smoking accounted for 23% of the total costs. Adding the value of attributable lives lost brought the annual cost to US$9.4 billion. Conclusion: The health costs of tobacco use are high and represent a net loss to society. Passive smoking increases these costs by at least a quarter. This quantification of the costs of tobacco provides strong motivation for legislative action on smoke-free areas in the Asia Pacific Region and elsewhere.

Effect of conditional release from hospitalization on mortality risk

Objectives: This study considered the protective value provided by conditional release. It assessed the contribution of conditional release to mortality risk among patients with mental disorders severe enough to require psychiatric hospitalization during a mental health treatment span of 13.5 years in Victoria, Australia. Methods: Death records were obtained from the Australian National Death Index for a sample of 24,973 Victorian Psychiatric Case Register patients with a history of psychiatric hospitalizations: 8,879 had experienced at least one conditional release during community care intervals and 16,094 had not. Risk of death was assessed with standardized mortality ratios of the general population of Victoria. Relative risk of death among patients with and without past experience of conditional release was computed with risk and odds ratios. The contribution of conditional release to mortality, taking into account use of community care services, age, gender, inpatient experience, and diagnosis, as well as other controls, was assessed with logistic regression. Results: Patients who had been hospitalized showed higher mortality risk than the general population. Sixteen percent ( 4,034) died. Patients exposed to conditional release, however, had a 14 percent reduction in probability of noninjury-related death and a 24 percent reduction per day on orders in the probability of death from injury compared with those not offered such oversight throughout their mental health treatment, all other factors taken into account. Conclusions: Conditional release can offer protective oversight for those considered dangerous to self or others and appears to reduce mortality risk among those with disorders severe enough to require psychiatric hospitalization.

Rosuvastatin attenuates hypertension-induced cardiovascular remodeling without affecting blood pressure in DOCA-salt hypertensive rats

The pleiotropic effects of statins represent potential mechanisms for the treatment of end-organ damage in hypertension. This study has investigated the effects of rosuvastatin in a model of cardiovascular remodeling, the DOCA-salt hypertensive rat. Male Wistar rats weighing 300 to 330 g were uninephrectomized (UNX) or UNX and treated with DOCA (25 mg subcutaneously every fourth day) and 1% NaCl in the drinking water. Compared with UNX controls, DOCA-salt rats developed hypertension, cardiovascular hypertrophy, inflammation with perivascular and interstitial cardiac fibrosis, endothelial dysfunction, and prolongation of ventricular action potential duration at 28 days. Rosuvastatin-treated rats received 20mg/kg/d of the drug in 10% Tween 20 by oral gavage for 32 days commencing 4 days before uninephrectomy. UNX and DOCA-salt controls received vehicle only. Rosuvastatin therapy attenuated the development of cardiovascular hypertrophy, inflammation, fibrosis, and ventricular action potential prolongation, but did not modify hypertension or vascular dysfunction. We conclude that the pleiotropic effects of rosuvastatin include attenuation of aspects of cardiovascular remodeling in the DOCA-salt model of hypertension in rats without altering systolic blood pressure.

Social inequalities in male mortality, and in male mortality from smoking: indirect estimation from national death rates in England and Wales, Poland, and North America

Background There are substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality in many countries. Smoking is often more prevalent among men of lower social class, education, or income. The contribution of smoking to these social inequalities in mortality remains uncertain. Methods The contribution of smoking to adult mortality in a population can be estimated indirectly from disease-specific death rates in that population (using absolute lung cancer rates to indicate proportions due to smoking of mortality from certain other diseases). We applied these methods to 1996 death rates at ages 35-69 years in men in three different social strata in four countries, based on a total of 0.6 million deaths. The highest and lowest social strata were based on social class (professional vs unskilled manual) in England and Wales, neighbourhood income (top vs bottom quintile) in urban Canada, and completed years of education (more than vs less than 12 years) in the USA and Poland. Results In each country, there was about a two-fold difference between the highest and the lowest social strata in overall risks of dying among men aged 35-69 years (England and Wales 21% vs 43%, USA 20% vs 37%, Canada 21% vs 34%, Poland 26% vs 50%: four-country mean 22% vs 41%, four-country mean absolute difference 19%). More than half of this difference in mortality between the top and bottom social strata involved differences in risks of being killed at age 35-69 years by smoking (England and Wales 4% vs 19%, USA 4% vs 15%, Canada 6% vs 13%, Poland 5% vs 22%: four-country mean 5% vs 17%, four-country mean absolute difference 12%). Smoking-attributed mortality accounted for nearly half of total male mortality in the lowest social stratum of each country. Conclusion In these populations, most, but not all, of the substantial social inequalities in adult male mortality during the 1990s were due to the effects of smoking. Widespread cessation of smoking could eventually halve the absolute differences between these social strata in the risk of premature death.

Using cohort studies to estimate mortality among injecting drug users that is not attributable to AIDS

Background: Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs. Method: Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude. mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow UP, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively. Results: The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1 219 422 person-years of observation, and 16 593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum. Conclusions: Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.

Estimating cause-specfic mortality from community- and facility-based data sources in the United Republic of Tanzania: options and implications for mortality burden estimates

Objective To compare mortality burden estimates based on direct measurement of levels and causes in communities with indirect estimates based on combining health facility cause-specific mortality structures with community measurement of mortality levels. Methods. Data from sentinel vital registration (SVR) with verbal autopsy (VA) were used to determine the cause-specific mortality burden at the community level in two areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Proportional cause-specific mortality structures from health facilities were applied to counts of deaths obtained by SVR to produce modelled estimates. The burden was expressed in years of life lost. Findings. A total of 2884 deaths were recorded from health facilities and 2167 recorded from SVR/VAs. In the perinatal and neonatal age group cause-specific mortality rates were dominated by perinatal conditions and stillbirths in both the community and the facility data. The modelled estimates for chronic causes were very similar to those from SVR/VA. Acute febrile illnesses were coded more specifically in the facility data than in the VA. Injuries were more prevalent in the SVR/VA data than in that from the facilities. Conclusion. In this setting, improved International classification of diseases and health related problems, tenth revision (ICD-10) coding practices and applying facility-based cause structures to counts of deaths from communities, derived from SVR, appears to produce reasonable estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden in those aged 5 years and older determined directly from VA. For the perinatal and neonatal age group, VA appears to be required. Use of this approach in a nationally representative sample of facilities may produce reliable national estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden for leading causes of death in adults.

Migraine With Aura and Migraine Without Aura Are Not Distinct Entities: Further Evidence From a Large Dutch Population Study

It is often debated whether migraine with aura (MA) and migraine without aura (MO) are etiologically distinct disorders. A previous study using latent class analysis (LCA) in Australian twins showed no evidence for separate subtypes of MO and MA. The aim of the present study was to replicate these results in a population of Dutch twins and their parents, siblings and partners (N = 10,144). Latent class analysis of International Headache Society (IHS)-based migraine symptoms resulted in the identification of 4 classes: a class of unaffected subjects (class 0), a mild form of nonmigrainous headache (class 1), a moderately severe type of migraine (class 2), typically without neurological symptoms or aura (8% reporting aura symptoms), and a severe type of migraine (class 3), typically with neurological symptoms, and aura symptoms in approximately half of the cases. Given the overlap of neurological symptoms and nonmutual exclusivity of aura symptoms, these results do not support the MO and MA subtypes as being etiologically distinct. The heritability in female twins of migraine based on LCA classification was estimated at .50 (95% confidence intervals [0CI} .27 -.59), similar to IHS-based migraine diagnosis (h(2) = .49, 95% Cl .19-.57). However, using a dichotomous classification (affected-unaffected) decreased heritability for the IHS-based classification (h(2) = .33, 95% Cl .00-.60), but not the LCA-based classification (h(2) = .51, 95% Cl. 23-.61). Importantly, use of the LCA-based classification increased the number of subjects classified as affected. The heritability of the screening question was similar to more detailed LCA and IHS classifications, suggesting that the screening procedure is an important determining factor in genetic studies of migraine.

Antibacterial dosing in intensive care: Pharmacokinetics, degree of disease and pharmacodynamics of sepsis

Treatment of sepsis remains a significant challenge with persisting high mortality and morbidity. Early and appropriate antibacterial therapy remains an important intervention for such patients. To optimise antibacterial therapy, the clinician must possess knowledge of the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of commonly used antibacterials and how these parameters may be affected by the constellation of pathophysiological changes occurring during sepsis. Sepsis, and the treatment thereof, increases renal preload and, via capillary permeability, leads to 'third-spacing', both resulting in higher antibacterial clearances. Alternatively, sepsis can induce multiple organ dysfunction, including renal and/or hepatic dysfunction, causing a decrease in antibacterial clearance. Aminoglycosides are concentration-dependent antibacterials and they display an increased volume of distribution (V-d) in sepsis, resulting in decreased peak serum concentrations. Reduced clearance from renal dysfunction would increase the likelihood of toxicity. Individualised dosing using extended interval dosing, which maximises the peak serum drug concentration (C-max)/minimum inhibitory concentration ratio is recommended. beta-Lactams and carbapenems are time-dependent antibacterials. An increase in Vd and renal clearance will require increased dosing or administration by continuous infusion. If renal impairment occurs a corresponding dose reduction may be required. Vancomycin displays predominantly time-dependent pharmacodynamic properties and probably requires higher than conventionally recommended doses because of an increased V-d and clearance during sepsis without organ dysfunction. However, optimal dosing regimens remain unresolved. The poor penetration of vancomycin into solid organs may require alternative therapies when sepsis involves solid organs (e.g. lung). Ciprofloxacin displays largely concentration-dependent kill characteristics, but also exerts some time-dependent effects. The V-d of ciprofloxacin is not altered with fluid shifts or over time, and thus no alterations of standard doses are required unless renal dysfunction occurs. In order to optimise antibacterial regimens in patients with sepsis, the pathophysiological effects of systemic inflammatory response syndrome need consideration, in conjunction with knowledge of the different kill characteristics of the various antibacterial classes. In conclusion, certain antibacterials can have a very high V-d, therefore leading to a low C-max and if a high peak is needed, then this would lead to underdosing. The Vd of certain antibacterials, namely aminoglycosides and vancomycin, changes over time, which means dosing may need to be altered over time. Some patients with serum creatinine values within the normal range can have very high drug clearances, thereby producing low serum drug levels and again leading to underdosing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prognostic value of intraventricular dyssynchrony according to clinical stage of left ventricular impairment

Intraventricular dyssynchrony has prognostic implications in patients who have severe functional limitation and decreased ejection fraction. Patients with less advanced cardiac disease often exhibit intraventricular dyssynchrony, but there is little available information about its prognostic relevance in such patients. We investigated the prognostic effect of intraventricular dyssynchrony on outcome in 318 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease who were classified according to the presence or absence of left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure symptoms. Mortality was considered the primary end point over a median follow-up of 56 months, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used for survival analysis. Despite a low prevalence (8%) of left bundle branch block, there was a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony even in patients without symptomatic heart failure. The magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony correlated poorly with QRS duration (r = 0.25),end-systolic volume index (r = 0.27), and number of scar segments (r = 0.25). There,were 58 deaths during follow-up. Ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony predicted outcome, but magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony was an independent predictor of survival only in patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction. In conclusion, patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease have a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony. Although ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and intraventricular dyssynchrony are potentially important prognostic markers, the relative importance of intraventricular dyssynchrony changes with the clinical setting and, may be greatest-in patients with preclinical disease. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.