Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

How can experience in clinical and community settings contribute to early medical education? A BEME systematic review

Review date: Review period January 1992-December 2001. Final analysis July 2004-January 2005. Background and review context: There has been no rigorous systematic review of the outcomes of early exposure to clinical and community settings in medical education. Objectives of review: (1) Identify published empirical evidence of the effects of early experience in medical education, analyse it, and synthesize conclusions from it. (2) Identify the strengths and limitations of the research effort to date, and identify objectives for future research. Search strategy: Ovid search of. BEI, ERIC, Medline, CIATAHL and EMBASE Additional electronic searches of: Psychinfo, Timelit, EBM reviews, SIGLE, and the Cochrane databases. Hand-searches of: Medical Education, Medical Teacher, Academic Medicine, Teaching and Learning in Medicine, Advances in Health Sciences Education, Journal of Educational Psychology. Criteria: Definitions: Experience: Authentic (real as opposed to simulated) human contact in a social or clinical context that enhances learning of health, illness and/or disease, and the role of the health professional. Early: What would traditionally have been regarded as the preclinical phase, usually the first 2 years. Inclusions: All empirical studies (verifiable, observational data) of early experience in the basic education of health professionals, whatever their design or methodology, including papers not in English. Evidence from other health care professions that could be applied to medicine was included. Exclusions: Not empirical; not early; post-basic; simulated rather than 'authentic' experience. Data collection: Careful validation of selection processes. Coding by two reviewers onto an extensively modified version of the standard BEME coding sheet. Accumulation into an Access database. Secondary coding and synthesis of an interpretation. Headline results: A total of 73 studies met the selection criteria and yielded 277 educational outcomes; 116 of those outcomes (from 38 studies) were rated strong and important enough to include in a narrative synthesis of results; 76% of those outcomes were from descriptive studies and 24% from comparative studies. Early experience motivated and satisfied students of the health professions and helped them acclimatize to clinical environments, develop professionally, interact with patients with more confidence and less stress, develop self-reflection and appraisal skill, and develop a professional identity. It strengthened their learning and made it more real and relevant to clinical practice. It helped students learn about the structure and function of the healthcare system, and about preventive care and the role of health professionals. It supported the learning of both biomedical and behavioural/social sciences and helped students acquire communication and basic clinical skills. There were outcomes for beneficiaries other than students, including teachers, patients, populations, organizations and specialties. Early experience increased recruitment to primary care/rural medical practice, though mainly in US studies which introduced it for that specific purpose as part of a complex intervention. Conclusions: Early experience helps medical students socialize to their chosen profession. It. helps them acquire a range of subject matter and makes their learning more real and relevant. It has potential benefits for other stakeholders, notably teachers and patients. It can influence career choices.

The effect of St John's wort extracts on CYP3A: a systematic review of prospective clinical trials

Aim The aim of this systematic review was to assess the quality and outcomes of clinical trials investigating the effect of St John's wort extracts on the metabolism of drugs by CYP3A. Methods Prospective clinical trials assessing the effect of St John's wort (SJW) extracts on metabolism by CYP3A were identified through computer-based searches (from their inception to May 2005) of Medline, Cinahl, PsycINFO, AMED, Current Contents and Embase, hand-searches of bibliographies of relevant papers and consultation with manufacturers and researchers in the field. Two reviewers selected trials for inclusion, independently extracted data and recorded details on study design. Results Thirty-one studies met the eligibility criteria. More than two-thirds of the studies employed a before-and-after design, less than one-third of the studies used a crossover design, and only three studies were double-blind and placebo controlled. In 12 studies the SJW extract had been assayed, and 14 studies stated the specific SJW extract used. Results from 26 studies, including all of the 19 studies that used high-dose hyperforin extracts (> 10 mg day(-1)), had outcomes consistent with CYP3A induction. The three studies using low-dose hyperforin extracts (< 4 mg day(-1)) demonstrated no significant effect on CYP3A. Conclusion There is reasonable evidence to suggest that high-dose hyperforin SJW extracts induce CYP3A. More studies are required to determine whether decreased CYP3A induction occurs after low-dose hyperforin extracts. Future studies should adopt study designs with a control phase or control group, identify the specific SJW extract employed and provide quantitative analyses of key constituents.

Risk of serious NSAID-related gastrointestinal events during long-term exposure: a systematic review

Objective: Exposure to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated wit increased risk of serious gastrointestinal (GI) events compared with non-exposure. We investigated whether that risk is sustained over time. Data sources: Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (to 2002); MEDLINE, EMBASE, Derwent Drug File and Current Contents (1999-2002); manual searching of reviews (1999-2002). Study selection: From 479 search results reviewed and 221 articles retrieved, seven studies of patients exposed to prescription non-selective NSAIDs for more than 6 months and reporting time-dependent serious GI event rates were selected for quantitative data synthesis. These were stratified into two groups by study design. Data extraction: Incidence of GI events and number of patients at specific time points were extracted. Data synthesis: Meta-regression analyses were performed. Change in risk was evaluated by testing whether the slope of the regression line declined over time. Four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provided evaluable data from five NSAID arms (aspirin, naproxen, two ibuprofen arms, and diclofenac). When the RCT data were combined, a small significant decline in annualised risk was seen: -0.005% (95% Cl, -0.008% to -0.001%) per month. Sensitivity analyses were conducted because there was disparity within the RCT data. The pooled estimate from three cohort studies showed no significant decline in annualised risk over periods up to 2 years: -0.003% (95% Cl, -0.008% to 0.003%) per month. Conclusions: Small decreases in risk over time were observed; these were of negligible clinical importance. For patients who need long-term (> 6 months) treatment, precautionary measures should be considered to reduce the net probability of serious GI events over the anticipated treatment duration. The effect of intermittent versus regular daily therapy on long-term risk needs further investigation.

A systematic review of successes and failures in home telehealth: preliminary results

We conducted a systematic review of the literature to identify studies in home telehealth that compared a home telehealth intervention with a non-telehealth standard/usual care alternative in terms of administrative changes, patient management decisions, patient outcomes, caregiver outcomes, economic impact or social impact on patients. A search of various databases produced 6643 references. Of these 769 papers were selected for more detailed investigation. These papers, combined with hand searching of relevant telehealth journals and cross-referencing of citations in identified publications, resulted in 138 papers referring to 130 projects for review. In this preliminary analysis we used a quality appraisal approach that took into account the study design. An additional analysis of patient numbers was then used to calculate a net evidence score. A large proportion of studies (80%) were randomised controlled trials. Only 22 projects (17%) reported economic data deemed to be sufficient for appraisal. Evidence exists for the clinical effectiveness of home telehealth in diabetes, the general area of mental health, high risk pregnancy monitoring, heart failure and cardiac disease.

Sketch design drawing, Hill House, Chapel Hill, Brisbane

Sketch floor plan and diagrams.

Sketch design drawing, Hill House, Chapel Hill, Brisbane

Three-dimensional projection sketch showing roof forms and wall finishes.

Hydraulic Design of Stepped Spillways and Downstream Energy Dissipators for Embankment Dams

In recent years, the design flows of many dams were re-evaluated, often resulting in discharges larger than the original design. In many cases, the occurrence of the revised flows could result in dam overtopping because of insufficient storage and spillway capacity. An experimental study was conducted herein to gain a better understanding of the flow properties in stepped chutes with slopes typical of embankment dams. The work was based upon a Froude similitude in large-size experimental facilities. A total of 10 configurations were tested including smooth steps, steps equipped with devices to enhance energy dissipation and rough steps. The present results yield a new design procedure. The design method includes some key issues not foreseen in prior studies : e.g., gradually varied flow, type of flow regime, flow resistance. It is believed that the outcomes are valid for a wide range of chute geometry and flow conditions typical of embankment chutes.

Review of Contact and Dynamic Phenomena in Cold Roll Forming

This review reflects the state of the art in study of contact and dynamic phenomena occurring in cold roll forming. The importance of taking these phenomena into account is determined by significant machine time and tooling costs spent on worn out forming rolls replacement and equipment adjustment in cold roll forming. Predictive modelling of the tool wear caused by contact and dynamic phenomena can reduce the production losses in this technological process.

Design, Science and Conceptual Analysis

Philosophers expend considerable effort on the analysis of concepts, but the value of such work is not widely appreciated. This paper principally analyses some arguments, beliefs, and presuppositions about the nature of design and the relations between design and science common in the literature to illustrate this point, and to contribute to the foundations of design theory.

Research, knowledge and design

The discussion about relations between research and design has a number of strands, and presumably motivations. Putting aside the question whether or not design or “creative endeavour” should be counted as research, for reasons to do with institutional recognition or reward, the question remains how, if at all, is design research? This question is unlikely to have attracted much interest but for matters external to Architecture within the modern university. But Architecture as a discipline now needs to understand research much better than in the past when ‘research’ was whatever went on in building science, history or people/environment studies. In this paper, I begin with some common assumptions about design, considered in relation to research, and suggest how the former can constitute or be a mode of the latter. Central to this consideration is an understanding of research as the production of publicly available knowledge. The method is that of conceptual analysis which is much more fruitful than is usually appreciated. This work is part of a larger project in philosophy of design, in roughly the analytical tradition.

Review of 'Interpreting the Renaissance' by Manfredo Tafuri, translated by Daniel Sherer

Review of the English edition of Manfredo Tafuri's Ricerca del rinascimento (1992), translated by Daniel Sherer and published in 2006 as Interpreting the Renaissance.