A machine learning approach to intraday trading on foreign exchange markets

Foreign Exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. In this paper we try to create such a system using Machine learning approach to emulate trader behaviour on the Foreign Exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

Diagnosis of diabetes mellitus: case of different cutoff values: A data mining approach

Objective: An estimation of cut-off points for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) based on individual risk factors. Methods: A subset of the 1991 Oman National Diabetes Survey is used, including all patients with a 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl (278 subjects) and a control group of 286 subjects. All subjects previously diagnosed as diabetic and all subjects with missing data values were excluded. The data set was analyzed by use of the SPSS Clementine data mining system. Decision Tree Learners (C5 and CART) and a method for mining association rules (the GRI algorithm) are used. The fasting plasma glucose (FPG), age, sex, family history of diabetes and body mass index (BMI) are input risk factors (independent variables), while diabetes onset (the 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl) is the output (dependent variable). All three techniques used were tested by use of crossvalidation (89.8%). Results: Rules produced for diabetes diagnosis are: A- GRI algorithm (1) FPG>=108.9 mg/dl, (2) FPG>=107.1 and age>39.5 years. B- CART decision trees: FPG >=110.7 mg/dl. C- The C5 decision tree learner: (1) FPG>=95.5 and 54, (2) FPG>=106 and 25.2 kg/m2. (3) FPG>=106 and =133 mg/dl. The three techniques produced rules which cover a significant number of cases (82%), with confidence between 74 and 100%. Conclusion: Our approach supports the suggestion that the present cut-off value of fasting plasma glucose (126 mg/dl) for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus needs revision, and the individual risk factors such as age and BMI should be considered in defining the new cut-off value.

Memory awareness and schematization: Learning in the university context

Following the application of the remember/know paradigm to student learning by Conway et al. (1997), this study examined changes in learning and memory awareness of university students in a lecture course and a research methods course. The proposed shift from a dominance of 'remember' awareness in early learning to a dominance of 'know' awareness as learning progresses and schematization occurs was evident for the methods course but not for the lecture course. The patterns of remember and know awareness and proposed associated levels of schematization were supported by a separate measure of the quality of student learning using the SOLO (Structure of Observed Learning Outcomes) Taxonomy. As found by previous research, the remember-to-know shift and schematization of knowledge is dependent upon type of course and level of achievement. Findings are discussed in terms of the utility of the methodology used, the theoretical implications and the applications to educational practice. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stimulus competition in affective and relational learning

Evaluative learning theory states that affective learning, the acquisition of likes and dislikes, is qualitatively different from relational learning, the learning of predictive relationships among stimuli. Three experiments tested the prediction derived from evaluative learning theory that relational learning, but not affective learning, is affected by stimulus competition by comparing performance during two conditional stimuli, one trained in a superconditioning procedure and the other in a blocking procedure. Ratings of unconditional stimulus expectancy and electrodermal responses indicated stimulus competition in relational learning. Evidence for stimulus competition in affective learning was provided by verbal ratings of conditional stimulus pleasantness and by measures of blink startle modulation. Taken together, the present experiments demonstrate stimulus competition in relational and affective learning, a result inconsistent with evaluative learning theory. (C) 2001 Academic Press.