Predicting population dynamics of weed biological control agents: science or gazing into crystal balls?

Various factors can influence the population dynamics of phytophages post introduction, of which climate is fundamental. Here we present an approach, using a mechanistic modelling package (CLIMEX), that at least enables one to make predictions of likely dynamics based on climate alone. As biological control programs will have minimal funding for basic work (particularly on population dynamics), we show how predictions can be made using a species geographical distribution, relative abundance across its range, seasonal phenology and laboratory rearing data. Many of these data sets are more likely to be available than long-term population data, and some can be incorporated into the exploratory phase of a biocontrol program. Although models are likely to be more robust the more information is available, useful models can be developed using information on species distribution alone. The fitted model estimates a species average response to climate, and can be used to predict likely geographical distribution if introduced, where the agent is likely to be more abundant (i.e. good locations) and more importantly for interpretation of release success, the likely variation in abundance over time due to intra- and inter-year climate variability. The latter will be useful in predicting both the seasonal and long-term impacts of the potential biocontrol agent on the target weed. We believe this tool may not only aid in the agent selection process, but also in the design of release strategies, and for interpretation of post-introduction dynamics and impacts. More importantly we are making testable predictions. If biological control is to become more of a science making and testing such hypothesis will be a key component.

Stepping Stones Triple P: A pilot study to evaluate acceptability of the program by parents of a child diagnosed with an Autism Spectrum Disorder

The experience of parents of children with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in standard parenting programs has not been researched, although anecdotal evidence suggests that they do not find them acceptable. Forty-two parents of children with ASD were asked to view a DVD explaining individual parenting strategies from Stepping Stones, a new branch of the Triple P program targeted specifically at parents of children with disabilities. Parents were asked to rate each strategy for acceptability, usability and behavioural intention, i.e., their intention to use the strategy. Additionally, parental attributions and parental perceived control were explored as possible barriers to positive evaluations of Stepping Stones parenting strategies. A focus group of parents was used to gather more detailed parent response to the program. Parent responses to the program were generally positive and attribution of the child's behaviour to uncontrollable factors was found to predict higher ratings of usability. The results were interpreted within the context of Weiner's attributional theory and the theory of reasoned action. The limitations of this study and suggestions for future research are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Community center-based resistance training for the maintenance of glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE - The purpose of this study was to determine whether beneficial effects on glycemic control of an initial laboratory-supervised resistance training program could be sustained through a community center-based maintenance program. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We studied 57 overweight (BMI >= 27 kg/m(2)) sedentary men and women aged 40-80 years with established (> 6 months) type 2 diabetes. initially, all participants attended a twice-weekly 2-month supervised resistance training program conducted in the exercise laboratory. Thereafter, participants undertook a resistance training maintenance program (2 times/week) for 12 months and were randomly assigned to carry this out either in a community fitness and recreation center (center) or in their domestic environment (home). Glycemic control (HbA(1c) [A1C]) was assessed at 0, 2, and 14 months. RESULTS - Pooling data from the two groups for the 2-month supervised resistance training program showed that compared with baseline, mean A1C fell by -0.4% [95% CI -0.6 to -0.2]. Within-group comparisons showed that A I C remained lower than baseline values at 14 months in the center group (- 0.4% [-0.7 to -0.03]) but not in the home group (-0.1% [-0.4 to 0.3]). However, no between-group differences were observed at each time point. Changes in AIC during the maintenance period were positively associated with exercise adherence in the center group only. CONCLUSIONS - Center-based but not home-based resistance training was associated with the maintenance of modestly improved glycemic control from baseline, which was proportional to program adherence. Our findings emphasize the need to develop and test behavioral methods to promote healthy lifestyles including increased physical activity in adults with type 2 diabetes.

Formal change impact analyses for emulated control software

Processor emulators are a software tool for allowing legacy computer programs to be executed on a modern processor. In the past emulators have been used in trivial applications such as maintenance of video games. Now, however, processor emulation is being applied to safety-critical control systems, including military avionics. These applications demand utmost guarantees of correctness, but no verification techniques exist for proving that an emulated system preserves the original system’s functional and timing properties. Here we show how this can be done by combining concepts previously used for reasoning about real-time program compilation, coupled with an understanding of the new and old software architectures. In particular, we show how both the old and new systems can be given a common semantics, thus allowing their behaviours to be compared directly.

Urinary arsenic, porphyrins and malondialdehyde in a population 16 years after arsenic mitigation program in Xinjian, China

Arsenic contamination of groundwater (0.05 to 0.84 mg/L) in Kuitun, Xinjiang was first found in 1970’s. Alternative clean surface water was introduced in 1985. We aimed to assess the exposure and heath outcome since the mitigation. In 2000, we collected a total of 360 urine samples from villagers from the endemic area and a nearby control area for arsenic (As), porphyrins and malondialdehyde (MDA) measurements. The averaged urinary As level of villagers from the endemic site (117±8.3 μg/g creatinine; 4.2 to 943.8 μg/g creat) was higher than that of the control site (73.6±3.2 μg/g creat). No significant differences were found in urinary porphyrins or MDA between the endemic and control sites. However, when the urinary arsenic was higher than 150 μg/g creat, these two biomarkers were higher in the exposed group than the control. Within the exposed group, villagers with arsenic-related skin symptoms had higher arsenic, uroporphyrin and MDA compared to those who had not shown symptoms. Sine the water mitigation, villagers whose urinary arsenic levels were 270 μg/g creat dropped from 20% to 10% of the population. Population with arsenic-related skin symptoms remained unchanged at 31%. We noted that 7.8% of those who had skin lesions were born after the implementation of intervention and that some villagers still prefer to drink the groundwater. Further, in the dry season, lack of surface water and electrical power breakdowns are to blame for failure to ensure continuous supply of clean water. It is concluded that despite the prompt action and successful water mitigation program to curb arsenic poisonings, it is essential to continue to monitor the health outcome of this population.

Determining the specification of a control system from that of its environment

Well understood methods exist for developing programs from given specifications. A formal method identifies proof obligations at each development step: if all such proof obligations are discharged, a precisely defined class of errors can be excluded from the final program. For a class of closed systems such methods offer a gold standard against which less formal approaches can be measured. For open systems -those which interact with the physical world- the task of obtaining the program specification can be as challenging as the task of deriving the program. And, when a system of this class must tolerate certain kinds of unreliability in the physical world, it is still more challenging to reach confidence that the specification obtained is adequate. We argue that widening the notion of software development to include specifying the behaviour of the relevant parts of the physical world gives a way to derive the specification of a control system and also to record precisely the assumptions being made about the world outside the computer.