A typology of community opportunity and vulnerability in metropolitan Australia

A multivariate model using hierarchical clustering and discriminant analysis is used to identify clusters of community opportunity and community vulnerability across Australia's mega metropolitan regions, Variables used in the model measure aspects of structural economic change, occupational change, human capital, income, unemployment, family/household disadvantage, and housing stress. A nine-cluster solution is used to categorise communities across metropolitan space. Significant between-city variations in the incidence of these clusters of opportunity and vulnerability are apparent, suggesting the emergence of marked differentiation between Australia's mega metropolitan regions in their adjustments to changing economic and social conditions. JEL classification: C49, R11, R12.

Estimating Two-Stage Models for Genetic Influences on Alcohol, Tobacco or Drug Use Initiation and Dependence Vulnerability in Twin and Family Data

Genetic research on risk of alcohol, tobacco or drug dependence must make allowance for the partial overlap of risk-factors for initiation of use, and risk-factors for dependence or other outcomes in users. Except in the extreme cases where genetic and environmental risk-factors for initiation and dependence overlap completely or are uncorrelated, there is no consensus about how best to estimate the magnitude of genetic or environmental correlations between Initiation and Dependence in twin and family data. We explore by computer simulation the biases to estimates of genetic and environmental parameters caused by model misspecification when Initiation can only be defined as a binary variable. For plausible simulated parameter values, the two-stage genetic models that we consider yield estimates of genetic and environmental variances for Dependence that, although biased, are not very discrepant from the true values. However, estimates of genetic (or environmental) correlations between Initiation and Dependence may be seriously biased, and may differ markedly under different two-stage models. Such estimates may have little credibility unless external data favor selection of one particular model. These problems can be avoided if Initiation can be assessed as a multiple-category variable (e.g. never versus early-onset versus later onset user), with at least two categories measurable in users at risk for dependence. Under these conditions, under certain distributional assumptions., recovery of simulated genetic and environmental correlations becomes possible, Illustrative application of the model to Australian twin data on smoking confirmed substantial heritability of smoking persistence (42%) with minimal overlap with genetic influences on initiation.

Screening for vulnerability to abuse among older women: Women's health Australia study

The validity of a brief self-report screening measure for elder abuse was examined on a nationally representative sample of more than 12,000 older women it? the baseline survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The screening instrument was a modification Of the Hwalek-Sengstock Elder Abuse Screening Test. Construct validity was examined using factor analysis and correlation with a wide range of sociodemographic, psychological. and health-related variables. Four factors, each of three items, were identified representing the following domains: Vulnerability, Dependence, Dejection, and Coercion. The Vulnerability and Coercion factors had the highest face validity for abuse and demonstrated moderate to good construct validity. The six items comprising these factors may provide a simple screening tool for elder abuse The identified correlates of abuse indicators have the potential to enhance policy development, screening, intervention, and carer support programs.

Experimental investigation of contaminant transport in coastal groundwater

Contaminant transport in coastal aquifers is of increasing interest since, with the development of coastal areas, contaminants from surface sources may enter coastal aquifers and pollute the groundwater flow. Coastal groundwater flow is complicated because of the presence of a freshwater-saltwater diffusion zone and the tidal variation of sea level at the seaward end. This paper investigates experimentally the behaviour of contaminant plumes with different densities in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Experiments were performed in a flow tank filled with glass beads as the porous medium. Results show that the dense contaminant has a more diffusive front than the less dense one in the seaward direction towards the coastline. The plume becomes more diffusive when it travels closer to the saltwater interface. On the contrary, the less dense contaminant presents a relatively sharp outline. It tends to migrate in the upper portion of the aquifer and exits in a concentrated manner over a small discharge area at the coastline, not further seaward under the sea. Non-dimensional parameters show that instabilities occur in our experiments for a density difference of 1.2% or larger between the contaminant and the ambient water. The experimental results provide guidance for field monitoring and numerical modelling. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical modelling of contaminant transport in coastal aquifers

This paper employs a two-dimensional variable density flow and transport model to investigate the transport of a dense contaminant plume in an unconfined coastal aquifer. Experimental results are also presented to show the contaminant plume in a freshwater-seawater flow system. Both the numerical and experimental results suggest that the neglect of the seawater interface does not noticeably affect the horizontal migration rate of the plume before it reaches the interface. However, the contaminant will travel further seaward and part of the solute mass will exit under the sea if the higher seawater density is not included. If the seawater density is included, the contaminant will travel upwards towards the beach along the freshwater-saltwater interface as shown experimentally. Neglect of seawater density, therefore, will result in an underestimate of solute mass rate exiting around the coastline. (C) 2002 IMACS. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Tide-induced water table fluctuations in coastal aquifers bounded by rhythmic shorelines

Previous studies on tidal water table dynamics in unconfined coastal aquifers have focused on the inland propagation of oceanic tides in the cross-shore direction based on the assumption of a straight coastline. Here, two-dimensional analytical solutions are derived to study the effects of rhythmic coastlines on tidal water table fluctuations. The computational results demonstrate that the alongshore variations of the coastline can affect the water table behavior significantly, especially in areas near the centers of the headland and embayment. With the coastline shape effects ignored, traditional analytical solutions may lead to large errors in predicting coastal water table fluctuations or in estimating the aquifer's properties based on these signals. The conditions under which the coastline shape needs to be considered are derived from the new analytical solution.