Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Is there a role for axillary dissection for patients with operable breast cancer in this era of conservatism?

Background: The trend in breast cancer surgery is toward more conservative operative procedures. The new staging technique of sentinel node biopsy facilitates the identification of pathological node-negative patients in whom axillary dissection may be avoided. However, patients with a positive sentinel node biopsy would require a thorough examination of their nodal status. An axillary dissection provides good local control, and accurate staging and prognostic information to inform decisions about adjuvant therapy. In addition, the survival benefit of axillary treatment is still debated. The objectives of the present study were to examine the pattern of lymph node metastases in the axilla, and evaluate the merits of a level III axillary dissection. Methods : Between June 1997 and May 2000, 308 patients underwent a total of 320 level III dissections as part of their treatment for operable invasive breast cancer. The three axillary levels were marked intraoperatively, and the contents in each level were submitted and examined separately. The patterns of axillary lymph node (ALN) metastases were examined, and factors associated with 4 positive nodes, and level III ALN metastases were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: An average of 25 lymph nodes were examined per case (range: 8-54), and using strict anatomical criteria, the mean numbers of ALN found in levels I, II and III were 18 (range: 2-43), 4 (range: 0 19), and 3 ( range: 0-11), respectively. Axillary lymph node involvement was found in 45% of the cases (143/320). Of the 143 cases, 78% (n = 111) had involvement of level I nodes only, and 21% (n = 30) had positive ALN in levels II and, or, III, in addition to level I. Involvement of lymph nodes in level II or III without a level I metastasis was found in two cases only (0.6%). By including level II, in addition to level I, in the dissection, four cases (1%) were converted from one to three positive nodes to 4 positive nodes (P = 0.64). By the inclusion of level III to a level I and II dissection, three cases (1%) were converted from one to three positive nodes to 4 positive nodes (P = 0.74). Involvement of lymph nodes in level III was found in 22 cases (7%), and 51 cases (16%) had 4 positive nodes. Palpability of ALN, pathological tumour size, and lymphovascular invasion (LVI), were significantly associated with level III involvement and 4 positive nodes by univariate and multivariate analyses. The frequencies of level III involvement and 4 positive nodes in patients with palpable ALN were 22% and 42%, respectively. The corresponding frequencies in patients with a clinically negative axilla, and a primary tumour which was >20 mm and LVI positive, were over 14% and 31%, respectively. Conclusion: Level III axillary dissection is appropriate for patients with palpable ALN, and in those with a tumour which is >20 mm and LVI positive, principally to reduce the risk of axillary recurrence. Staging accuracy is achieved with a level II dissection, or even a level I dissection alone based on strict anatomical criteria. Sentinel node biopsy is a promising technique in identifying pathological node-positive patients in whom an axillary clearance provides optimal local control and staging information.

Contributions of Non-consumptive Wildlife Tourism to Conservation

Wildlife tourism has the potential to contribute to conservation through a variety of mechanisms. This chapter presents a preliminary assessment of the extent to which this potential is currently being realised, comparing tourism based on viewing of animals in captive settings (with a focus on federated zoos) with that in free-ranging situations (wildlife watching). The key mechanisms involved are: direct wildlife management and research; use of income derived from wildlife tourism to fund conservation; education of visitors to behave in a more conservation-friendly manner; political lobbying in support of conservation; and provision of a socio-economic incentive for conservation. All of these occur in at least some zoos and wildlife-watching situations, and collectively the contribution of non-consumptive wildlife tourism to conservation is significant, though impossible to quantify. The key strengths of the zoo sector in this regard are its inputs into captive breeding and its potential to educate large numbers of people. in contrast, wildlife watching provides significant socio-economic incentives for conservation of natural habitats. There seem to be significant opportunities for expanding the role of non-consumptive wildlife tourism in conservation.

Visitors' reaction to Pinnawala Elephant Orphanage in Sri Lanka

Pinnawala Elephant Orphanage (PEO) is a unique captive elephant-based recreation facility in Sri Lanka. Over 35,000 visitors (both local and foreign) visit the PEO per month on average for a variety of reasons. However, little or no attempt has been made to examine their reaction to its activities. This paper reports preliminary findings from two visitor surveys (one local and one foreign) conducted at the PEO to examine the characteristics of visitors, the satisfaction they gained from the visit, their attitudes towards conservation of the elephant, their reactions to the current facilities available at the orphanage, and their opinions and maximum willingness to pay (WTP) to enter the PEO. It is found that, although some variations occurred between the samples, the majority of all respondents showed a similar reaction to the activities and facilities at the Orphanage. However, some differences are evident between these two samples in relation to satisfaction received, responses to the WTP elicitation and attitudes towards the information and interpretive facilities. Overall, the majority of the respondents indicated that their support for the conservation of the Asian elephant had increased considerably with their visit to the Orphanage. This indicates that considerable unrecorded and as yet unutilised support could be generated both financially and otherwise to conserve this endangered species through wildlife based recreation facilities such as PEO in Sri Lanka.

The appearance of a second genotype of Japanese encephalitis virus in the Australasian region

In mid-January 2000, the reappearance of Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus activity in the Australasian region was first demonstrated by the isolation of JE virus from 3 sentinel pigs on Badu Island in the Torres Strait. Further evidence of JE virus activity was revealed through the isolation of JE virus from Cidex gelidus mosquitoes collected on Badu Island and the detection of specific JE virus neutralizing antibodies in 3 pigs from Saint Pauls community on Moa Island. Nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of the premembrane and envelope genes were performed which showed that both the pig and mosquito JE virus isolates (TSOO and TS4152, respectively) clustered in genotype I, along with northern Thai, Cambodian, and Korean isolates. All previous Australasian JE virus isolates belong to genotype II, along with Malaysian and Indonesian isolates. Therefore, for the first time, the appearance and transmission of a second genotype of JE virus in the Australasian region has been demonstrated.

Neurology of ciguatera

Ciguatera is a widespread ichthyosarcotoxaemia with dramatic and clinically important neurological features. This severe form of fish poisoning may present with either acute or chronic intoxication syndromes and constitutes a global health problem. Ciguatera poisoning is little known in temperate countries as a potentially global problem associated with human ingestion of large carnivorous fish that harbour the bioaccumulated ciguatoxins of the photosynthetic dinoflagellate Gambierdiscus toxicus. This neurotoxin is stored in the viscera of fish that have eaten the dinoflagellate and concentrated it upwards throughout the food chain towards progressively larger species, including humans. Ciguatoxin accumulates in all fish tissues, especially the liver and viscera, of at risk species. Both Pacific (P-CTX-1) and Caribbean (C-CTX-1) ciguatoxins are heat stable polyether toxins and pose a health risk at concentrations above 0.1 ppb. The presenting signs of ciguatera are primarily neurotoxic in more than 80% of cases. Such include the pathognomonic features of postingestion paraesthesiae, dysaesthesiae, and heightened nociperception. Other sensory abnormalities include the subjective features of metallic taste, pruritis, arthralgia, myalgia, and dental pain. Cerebellar dysfunction, sometimes diphasic, and weakness due to both neuropathy and polymyositis may be encountered. Autonomic dysfunction leads to hypotension, bradycardia, and hypersalivation in severe cases. Ciguatoxins are potent, lipophilic sodium channel activator toxins which bind to the voltage sensitive (site 5) sodium channel on the cell membranes of all excitable tissues. Treatment depends on early diagnosis and the early administration of intravenous mannitol. The early identification of the neurological features in sentinel patients has the potential to reduce the number of secondary cases in cluster outbreaks.

Detection and stability of Japanese encephalitis virus RNA and virus viability in dead infected mosquitoes under different storage conditions

A semi-nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was evaluated for detection of Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus in infected mosquitoes stored under simulated northern Australian summer conditions. The effect of silica gel, thymol, and a combination of the two on RNA stability and virus viability in dead mosquitoes were also examined. While JE virus RNA was relatively stable in mosquitoes held for up to 14 days after death, viable virus was not detected after day 1. Thymol vapor inhibited fungal contamination. Detection of single mosquitoes infected with JE virus in large pools of mosquitoes was also investigated. Single laboratory-infected mosquitoes were detected in pools of less than or equal to200 mosquitoes and in pools diluted to 0.2/100 and 0.1/100 mosquitoes, using the semi-nested PCR. However, the ability to detect live virus decreased as pool size increased. The semi-nested PCR proved more expensive than virus isolation for pools of 100 mosquitoes. However, the semi-nested PCR was faster and more economical using larger pools. Results indicate that surveillance of JE virus in mosquitoes using the semi-nested PCR is an alternative to monitoring seroconversions in sentinel pigs.

The effect of the cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus on the capsalid monogenean Benedenia lolo parasite of the labrid fish Hemigymnus melapterus

The cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus affected the pigmented monogenean parasite Benedenia lolo on the fish Hemigymnus melapterus (Labridae) held in aquaria. The effect of cleaner fish varied with the size class of fish; only small fish [a posteriori size class < 11-5 cm standard length (L-S)] exposed to cleaner fish had fewer monogeneans compared with fish not exposed to cleaner fish. The abundance of monogeneans on large fish (a posteriori size class > 11-5 cut L-S) was not affected by cleaner fish. The size-frequency distributions of monogeneans on both size-classes of H. melapterus were affected by cleaner fish. Fish exposed to cleaner fish had fewer large (> 3 mm) and more small (< 1 mm) monogeneans than fish not exposed to cleaner fish, suggesting cleaner fish selectively removed larger monogeneans. This difference was more pronounced on large fish. In the absence of cleaner fish, small fish had almost as many monogeneans as large fish; they also had more small monogeneans than the large fish, suggesting small fish were more vulnerable to infection by monogeneans than larger fish. This suggests that the cleaner fish L. dimidiatus has the potential to control benedeniine monogeneans on captive fish and highlights the importance of taking into account fish size in studies of the effect of cleaner fish on ectoparasites. (C) 2002 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nocturnal activity in the green sea turtle alters daily profiles of melatonin and corticosterone

In nature, green turtles (Chelonia mydas) can exhibit nocturnal activity in addition to their typically diurnal activity cycle. We examined whether nocturnal activity in captive and free-living green turtles altered daily plasma profiles of melatonin (MEL) and corticosterone (CORT). In captivity, diurnally active green turtles expressed distinct diel cycles in MEL and CORT; a nocturnal rise was observed in MEL and a diurnal rise was observed in CORT. However, when induced to perform both low- and high-intensity nocturnal activity, captive green turtles exhibited a significant decrease in MEL, compared to inactive controls. In contrast, plasma CORT increased significantly with nocturnal activity, and further, the relative increase in CORT was correlated with the intensity of the nocturnal behavior. In free-living green turtles that performed nocturnal activity including: nesting, mate searching, and feeding/swimming behaviors, plasma profiles in MEL and CORT exhibited relatively little, or no, daily fluctuation. Our findings demonstrate that nocturnal activity in green turtles is often associated with MEL and CORT profiles that resemble those measured during the day. We speculate that these conspicuous changes in MEL and CORT during nocturnal activity could either support or promote behaviors that enable acquisition of transient resources important to the survival and reproductive success of green turtles. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Genetic differentiation between Australian and North American populations of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus (L.) (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae): an exploration using allozyme electrophoresis

Allozyme analysis was used to address the question of the source of the Australian populations of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus (L.). The study had three major aims: (1) To compare the levels of diversity of Australian and Hawaiian populations with potential source populations. (2) To determine whether eastern and western North American populations were sufficiently divergent for the Australian populations to be aligned to a source population. (3) To compare the differentiation among regions in Australia and North America to test the prediction of greater genetic structure in Australia, as a consequence of reduced migratory behaviour. The reverse was found, with F-ST values an order of magnitude lower in Australia than in North America. Predictably, Australian and Hawaiian populations had lower allelic diversity, but unexpected higher heterozygosity values than North American populations. It was not possible to assign the Australian populations to a definitive source, although the high levels of similarity of Australian populations to each other suggest a single colonization event. The possibility that the Australian populations have not been here long enough to reach equilibrium is discussed. (C) 2002 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2002, 75, 437-452.

On the intrinsic capacity for increase of Australian flying-foxes (Pteropus spp., Megachiroptera)

In the reproductive biology of organisms, a continuum exists from "highly reproductive species" at one end to "survivor species" at the other end. Among other factors, the position of a species along this continuum affects its sensitivity to human exploitation and its vulnerability to extinction. Flying foxes are long-lived, seasonal breeders, with a rigid, well-defined breeding season that is largely or wholly genetically determined. Unlike opportunistic, highly reproductive species, such as rabbits or mice, female flying foxes are unable to produce viable young before their second or third year of life, and are then capable of producing just one young per year. Such a breeding strategy will be successful only if flying-foxes are long-lived and suffer naturally low mortality rates. In this paper, we assess the vulnerability of flying foxes to extinction, using basic parameters of reproduction observed in the wild, and in captive breeding colonies of P. poliocephalus, P. alecto and P. scapulatus, and survival rates that are likely to apply to Australian conditions. Our models show explicitly that flying-fox populations have a very low capacity for increase, even under the most ideal conditions. The implications of our models are discussed in reference to the long-term management and conservation needs of Australian flying foxes. We conclude that current death-rates of flying-foxes in NSW and Queensland fruit orchards are putting state populations at serious risk.

Was there a second adaptive radiation of giant tortoises in the Indian Ocean? Using mitochondrial DNA to investigate speciation and biogeography of Aldabrachelys (Reptilia, Testudinidae)

A radiation of five species of giant tortoises (Cylindraspis ) existed in the southwest Indian Ocean, on the Mascarene islands, and another (of Aldabrachelys ) has been postulated on small islands north of Madagascar, from where at least eight nominal species have been named and up to five have been recently recognized. Of 37 specimens of Madagascan and small-island Aldabrachelys investigated by us, 23 yielded significant portions of a 428-base-pair (bp) fragment of mitochondrial (cytochrome b and tRNA-Glu), including type material of seven nominal species (A. arnoldi, A. dussumieri, A. hololissa, A. daudinii, A. sumierei, A. ponderosa and A. gouffei ). These and nearly all the remaining specimens, including 15 additional captive individuals sequenced previously, show little variation. Thirty-three exhibit no differences and the remainder diverge by only 1-4 bp (0.23-0.93%). This contrasts with more widely accepted tortoise species which show much greater inter- and intraspecific differences. The non-Madagascan material examined may therefore only represent a single species and all specimens may come from Aldabra where the common haplotype is known to occur. The present study provides no evidence against the Madagascan origin for Aldabra tortoises suggested by a previous molecular phylogenetic analysis, the direction of marine currents and phylogeography of other reptiles in the area. Ancient mitochondrial DNA from the extinct subfossil A. grandidieri of Madagascar differs at 25 sites (5.8%) from all other Aldabrachelys samples examined here.

Trichostome ciliates from Australian marsupials. IV. Distribution of the ciliate fauna

Trichostome ciliates are associated with many different lineages of herbivorous mammals but there are few comparative studies of these associations in each lineage of herbivores. Here the occurrence of the ciliate fauna in a range of herbivorous marsupials (diprotodonts) is investigated and compared with that of ruminants. A total of 371 potential host animals, representing 33 species and 7 families, were examined for the presence of ciliates. The prevalence of endocommensal ciliates within individual host species varied between 0 and 100%. Of the different dietary groups of marsupials examined, only foregut (macropodids) and hindgut (vombatids) fermentative herbivores were found to harbour ciliates; carnivorous (dasyurids), omnivorous (peramelids) and midgut fermenting herbivores (phalangeroids) all lacked ciliates. The majority of ciliate species were oioxenic, several occurred in closely related hosts and some were able to colonise unnatural hosts in captive populations. Ciliate prevalences were found to vary at all levels: between hosts of different species, between conspecific hosts collected at different localities or seasons and between conspecific hosts at one collecting locality. The faunal composition of the 2 marsupial families which harboured ciliates differed greatly: the vombatid fauna was composed exclusively of amylovoracids whereas the macropodids harboured amylovoracids, polycostids and macropodiniids. In comparison to the ciliate fauna of ruminants, the fauna of macropodids is both depauperate and much more host specific. Low species richness in each host may be due to the large numbers of stomach nematodes in macropodids which compete with and may prey upon the ciliates within the stomach. The high levels of host specificity are probably due to different patterns of ciliate transmission in macropodids as they do not ruminate, eructate or feed indiscriminantly on pasture contaminated with saliva containing ciliates.

Detection of West Nile Virus Infection in birds in the United States by blocking ELISA and immunohistochemistry

A blocking ELISA targeting an immunodominant West Nile epitope on the West Nile Virus NS1 protein was assessed for the detection of West Nile-specific antibodies in blood samples collected from 584 sentinel chickens and 238 wild birds collected in-New Jersey from May-December 2000. Ten mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos) experimentally infected with West Nile virus and six uninfected controls were also tested. The ELISA proved specific in detecting WNV antibodies in 9/10 chickens and 4/4 wild birds previously confirmed as positive by Plaque Reduction Neutralization test (PRNT) at the Center for Disease Control, Division of Vector Borne Diseases, Fort Collins, CO, USA (CDC). Nine out of the ten experimentally infected mallard ducks also tested positive for WN antibodies in the blocking ELISA, while 6/6 uninfected controls did not. Additionally, 1705 wild birds, collected in New Jersey from December 2000-November 2001 and Long Island, New York between November 1999 and August 2001 were also tested for WN antibodies by the blocking ELISA. These tests identified 30 positive specimens, 12 of which had formalin-fixed tissues available to allow detection of WN specific viral antigen in various tissues by WNV-specific immunohistochemistry. Our results indicate that rapid and specific detection of antibodies to WN virus in sera from a range of avian species by blocking ELISA is an effective strategy for WN Virus surveillance in avian hosts. In combination with detection of WN-specific antigens in tissues by immunohistochemistry (IHC) the blocking ELISA will also be useful for confirming WN infection in diseased birds.