66 resultados para C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications


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This article examines the effects of commercialisation of agriculture on land use and work patterns by means of a case study in the Nyeri district in Kenya. The study uses cross sectional data collected from small-scale farmers in this district. We find that good quality land is allocated to non-food cash crops, which may lead to a reduction in non-cash food crops and expose some households to greater risks of possible famine. Also the proportion of land allocated to food crops declines as the farm size increases while the proportion of land allocated to non-food cash crops rises as the size of farm increases. Cash crops are also not bringing in as much revenue commensurate with the amount of land allocated to them. With growing commercialisation, women still work more hours than men. They not only work on non-cash food crops but also on cash crops including non-food cash crops. Evidence indicates that women living with husbands work longer hours than those married but living alone, and also longer than the unmarried women. Married women seem to lose their decision-making ability with growth of commercialisation, as husbands make most decisions to do with cash crops. Furthermore husbands appropriate family cash income. Husbands are less likely to use such income for the welfare of the family compared to wives due to different expenditure patterns. Married women in Kenya also have little or no power to change the way land is allocated between food and non-food cash crops. Due to deteriorating terms of trade for non-food cash crops, men have started cultivation of food cash crops with the potential of crowding out women. It is found that both the area of non-cash crops tends to rise with farm size but also the proportion of the farm area cash cropped rises in Central Kenya.

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This article examines the effects of marital status, farm size and other factors on the extent of cash cropping (and allocation of land use) by means of a case study in the Nyeri district in Kenya. It was found that married women are involved in the production of a relatively greater amount of output of cash crops than unmarried women since husbands prefer to have more land under cash crops than food crops. Farmers with better quality land allocate a high proportion of it to non-food cash crops, which may expose some households to greater risks of possible famine. The proportion of land allocated to food crops declines as the farm size increases while the proportion of land allocated to non-food cash crops rises as the size of farm increases. Age is also inversely associated with subsistence. Education, though inversely associated with subsistence farming does not appear to be statistically very significant as an influence on the composition of land use and composition of farm output. With growing commercialisation, married women work more hours than unmarried ones, working not only on non-cash food crops but also on non-food cash crops. Married women seem to lose their decision-making ability with growth of agricultural commercialisation, as husbands make most decisions to do with cash crops. Married women in Kenya also have little or no power to change the way land is allocated between food and non-food cash crops.

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For a two layered long wave propagation, linearized governing equations, which were derived earlier from the Euler equations of mass and momentum assuming negligible friction and interfacial mixing are solved analytically using Fourier transform. For the solution, variations of upper layer water level is assumed to be sinosoidal having known amplitude and variations of interface level is solved. As the governing equations are too complex to solve it analytically, density of upper layer fluid is assumed as very close to the density of lower layer fluid to simplify the lower layer equation. A numerical model is developed using the staggered leap-forg scheme for computation of water level and discharge in one dimensional propagation having known amplitude for the variations of upper layer water level and interface level to be solved. For the numerical model, water levels (upper layer and interface) at both the boundaries are assumed to be known from analytical solution. Results of numerical model are verified by comparing with the analytical solutions for different time period. Good agreements between analytical solution and numerical model are found for the stated boundary condition. The reliability of the developed numerical model is discussed, using it for different a (ratio of density of fluid in the upper layer to that in the lower layer) and p (ratio of water depth in the lower layer to that in the upper layer) values. It is found that as ‘CX’ increases amplification of interface also increases for same upper layer amplitude. Again for a constant lower layer depth, as ‘p’ increases amplification of interface. also increases for same upper layer amplitude.

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Recent interest in the development and evolution of theory of mind has provided a wealth of information about representational skills in both children and animals, According to J, Perrier (1991), children begin to entertain secondary representations in the 2nd year of life. This advance manifests in their passing hidden displacement tasks, engaging in pretense and means-ends reasoning, interpreting external representations, displaying mirror self-recognition and empathic behavior, and showing an early understanding of mind and imitation. New data show a cluster of mental accomplishments in great apes that is very similar to that observed in 2-year-old humans. It is suggested that it is most parsimonious to assume that this cognitive profile is of homologous origin and that great apes possess secondary representational capacity. Evidence from animals other than apes is scant. This analysis leads to a number of predictions for future research.