The International Consortium on Mental Health Policy and Services: objectives, design and project implementation

The concept of the burden of disease, introduced and estimated for a broad range of diseases in the World Bank report of 1993 illustrated that mental and neurological disorders not only entail a higher burden than cancer, but are responsible, in developed and developing countries, for more than 15% of the total burden of all diseases. As a consequence, over the past decade, mental disorders have ranked increasingly highly on the international agenda for health. However, the fact that mental health and nervous system disorders are now high on the international health agenda is by no means a guarantee that the fate of patients suffering from these disorders in developing countries will improve. In most developing countries the treatment gap for mental and neurological disorders is still unacceptably high. To address this problem, an international network of collaborating institutions in low-income countries has been set up. The establishment and the achievements of this network-the International Consortium on Mental Health Policy and Services-are reported. Sixteen institutions in developing countries collaborate (supported by a small number of scientific resource centres in industrialized nations) in projects on applied mental health systems research. Over a two-year period, the network produced the key elements of a national mental health policy; provided tools and methods for assessing a country's current mental health status (context, needs and demands, programmes, services and care and outcomes); established a global network of expertise, i.e., institutions and experts, for use by countries wishing to reform their mental health policy, services and care; and generated guidelines and examples for upgrading mental health policy with due regard to the existing mental health delivery system and demographic, cultural and economic factors.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: current burden and future projections

Information about the comparative magnitude of the burden from various diseases and injuries is a critical input into building the evidence base for health policies and programmes. Such information should be based on a critical evaluation of all available epidemiological data using standard and comparable procedures across diseases and injuries, including information on the age at death and the incidence, duration and severity of cases who do not die prematurely from the disease. A summary measure, disability-adjusted life yrs (DALYs), has been developed to simultaneously measure the amount of disease burden due to premature mortality and the amount due to the nonfatal consequences of disease.

The fraction of ischaemic heart disease and stroke attributable to smoking in the WHO Pacific and South-East Asian regions

Background: Tobacco will soon be the biggest cause of death worldwide, with the greatest burden being borne by low and middle-income countries where 8/10 smokers now live. Objective: This study aimed to quantify the direct burden of smoking for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) by calculating the population attributable fractions (PAF) for fatal ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke (haemorrhagic and ischaemic) for all 38 countries in the World Health Organization Western Pacific and South East Asian regions. Design and subjects: Sex-specific prevalence of smoking was obtained from existing data. Estimates of the hazard ratio (HR) for IHD and stroke with smoking as an independent risk factor were obtained from the,600 000 adult subjects in the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration (APCSC). HR estimates and prevalence were then used to calculate sex-specific PAF for IHD and stroke by country. Results: The prevalence of smoking in the 33 countries, for which relevant data could be obtained, ranged from 28-82% in males and from 1-65% in females. The fraction of IHD attributable to smoking ranged from 13-33% in males and from < 1-28% in females. The percentage of haemorrhagic stroke attributable to smoking ranged from 4-12% in males and from < 1-9% in females. Corresponding figures for ischaemic stroke were 11-27% in males and < 1-22% in females. Conclusions: Up to 30% of some cardiovascular fatalities can be attributed to smoking. This is likely an underestimate of the current burden of smoking on CVD, given that the smoking epidemic has developed further since many of the studies were conducted.

Incremental benefit of myocardial contrast to combined dipyridamole-exercise stress echocardiography for the assessment of coronary artery disease

Background-Although assessment of myocardial perfusion by myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) is feasible, its incremental benefit to stress echocardiography is not well defined. We examined whether the addition of MCE to combined dipyridamole-exercise echocardiography (DExE) provides incremental benefit for evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods and Results-MCE was combined with DExE in 85 patients, 70 of whom were undergoing quantitative coronary angiography and 15 patients with a low probability of CAD. MCE was acquired by low-mechanical-index imaging in 3 apical views after acquisition of standard resting and poststress images. Wall motion, left ventricular opacification, and MCE components of the study were interpreted sequentially, blinded to other data. Significant (>50%) stenoses were present in 43 patients and involved 69 coronary territories. The addition of qualitative MCE improved sensitivity for the detection of CAD (91% versus 74%, P=0.02) and accurate recognition of disease extent (87% versus 65% of territories, P=0.003), with a nonsignificant reduction in specificity. Conclusions-The addition of low-mechanical-index MCE to standard imaging during DExE improves detection of CAD and enables a more accurate determination of disease extent.

Effect of periodontal treatment on the C-reactive protein and proinflammatory cytokine levels in Japanese periodontitis patients

Background: Recent epidemiological studies have shown that individuals with periodontitis have a significantly increased risk of developing coronary heart disease. In addition to conventional risk factors, chronic infection and subsequent production of systemic inflammatory markers may be associated with this increased risk. Objectives: The aim of the present study was to determine whether the presence of chronic periodontitis and subsequent periodontal treatment could influence the serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) in a Japanese population. Methods: Sera were obtained from 24 patients with moderate to advanced periodontitis at the baseline examination and at reassessment after completion of treatment. As a control, sera were also obtained from 21 subjects without periodontitis. High-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) was measured using nephelometry with a latex particle-enhanced immunoassay and interleukin-6 and TNF-alpha were determined by sensitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results: The levels of hs-CRP and interleukin-6 in the sera of this Japanese population seemed to be much lower than those reported in other populations. TNF-alpha on the other hand, demonstrated similar levels between this Japanese and other populations. Periodontal status demonstrated a significant improvement in all patients following treatment. There was a trend toward higher hs-CRP levels in patients at baseline compared with control subjects. Hs-CRP level tended to decrease with improvement of the periodontal condition following treatment and approached that of control subjects, although this decline was not statistically significant. interleukin-6 and TNF-alpha levels did not change following periodontal treatment. Furthermore, there was no difference in the serum levels of these inflammatory cytokines between patients either at baseline or at reassessment and control subjects. Conclusions: In this pilot study, we were unable to show that periodontal disease significantly affects the serum levels of systemic inflammatory markers. However, this does not necessarily mean that periodontitis does not contribute to the total burden of inflammation as there was a tendency for hs-CRP to decrease following successful periodontal treatment. Large-scale studies are clearly needed to determine the impact of periodontal disease on systemic inflammation.

National survey of the prevalence, incidence, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland

Objective: To examine the epidemiology, primary care burden, and treatment of heart failure in Scotland, UK. Design: Cross sectional data from primary care practices participating in the Scottish continuous morbidity recording scheme between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000. Setting: 53 primary care practices ( 307 741 patients). Subjects: 2186 adult patients with heart failure. Results: The prevalence of heart failure in Scotland was 7.1 in 1000, increasing with age to 90.1 in 1000 among patients greater than or equal to 85 years. The incidence of heart failure was 2.0 in 1000, increasing with age to 22.4 in 1000 among patients greater than or equal to 85 years. For older patients, consultation rates for heart failure equalled or exceeded those for angina and hypertension. Respiratory tract infection was the most common comorbidity leading to consultation. Among men, 23% were prescribed a beta blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 46% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for women were 20% (p = 0.29 versus men), 7% (p = 0.02), and 34% (p < 0.001). Among patients, 75 years 26% were prescribed a β blocker, 11% spironolactone, and 50% an angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor. The corresponding figures for patients &GE; 75 years were 19% (p = 0.04 versus patients < 75), 7% (p = 0.04), and 33% (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Heart failure is a common condition, especially with advancing age. In the elderly, the community burden of heart failure is at least as great as that of angina or hypertension. The high rate of concomitant respiratory tract infection emphasises the need for strategies to immunise patients with heart failure against influenza and pneumococcal infection. Drugs proven to improve survival in heart failure are used less frequently for elderly patients and women.

Exposing extinction risk analysis to pathogens: Is disease just another form of density dependence?

In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

Differences in prevalence of pre-existing morbility between injured and non-injured populations

Objectives To identify and examine differences in pre-existing morbidity between injured and non-injured population-based cohorts. Methods Administrative health data from Manitoba, Canada, were used to select a population-based cohort of injured people and a sample of non-injured people matched on age, gender, aboriginal status and geographical location of residence at the date of injury. All individuals aged 18-64 years who had been hospitalized between 1988 and 1991 for injury (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code 800-995) (n = 21032), were identified from the Manitoba discharge database. The matched non-injured comparison group comprised individuals randomly selected 1: 1 from the Manitoba population registry. Morbidity data for the 12 months prior to the date of the injury were obtained by linking the two cohorts with all hospital discharge records and physician claims. Results Compared to the non-injured group, injured people had higher Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, 1.9 times higher rates of hospital admissions and 1.7 times higher rates of physician claims in the year prior to the injury. Injured people had a rate of admissions to hospital for a mental health disorder 9.3 times higher, and physician claims for a mental health disorder 3.5 times higher, than that of non-injured people. These differences were all statistically significant (P < 0.001). Conclusion Injured people were shown to differ from the general non-injured population in terms of pre-existing morbidity. Existing population estimates of the attributable burden of injury that are obtained by extrapolating from observed outcomes in samples of injured cases may overestimate the magnitude of the problem.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Role of smoking in global and regional cancer epidemiology: current patterns and data needs

Although smoking is widely recognized as a major cause of cancer, there is little information on how it contributes to the global and regional burden of cancers in combination with other risk factors that affect background cancer mortality patterns. We used data from the American Cancer Society's Cancer Prevention Study II (CPS-II) and the WHO and IARC cancer mortality databases to estimate deaths from 8 clusters of site-specific cancers caused by smoking, for 14 epidemiologic subregions of the world, by age and sex. We used lung cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking hazard. CPS-II hazards were adjusted for important covariates. In the year 2000, an estimated 1.42 (95% CI 1.27-1.57) million cancer deaths in the world, 21% of total global cancer deaths, were caused by smoking. Of these, 1.18 million deaths were among men and 0.24 million among women; 625,000 (95% CI 485,000-749,000) smoking-caused cancer deaths occurred in the developing world and 794,000 (95% CI 749,000-840,000) in industrialized regions. Lung cancer accounted for 60% of smoking-attributable cancer mortality, followed by cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract (20%). Based on available data, more than one in every 5 cancer deaths in the world in the year 2000 were caused by smoking, making it possibly the single largest preventable cause of cancer mortality. There was significant variability across regions in the role of smoking as a cause of the different site-specific cancers. This variability illustrates the importance of coupling research and surveillance of smoking with that for other risk factors for more effective cancer prevention. (C) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.