Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social and behavioural determinants of early childhood caries

Background: To investigate the association between selected social and behavioural (infant feeding and preventive dental practices) variables and the presence of early childhood caries in preschool children within the north Brisbane region. Methods: A cross sectional sample of 2515 children aged four to five years were examined in a preschool setting using prevalence (percentage with caries) and severity (dmft) indices. A self-administered questionnaire obtained information regarding selected social and behavioural variables. The data were modelled using multiple logistic regression analysis at the 5 per cent level of significance. Results: The final explanatory model for caries presence in four to five year old children included the variables breast feeding from three to six months of age (OR=0.7, CI=0.5, 1.0), sleeping with the bottle (OR=1.9, CI=1.5, 2.4), sipping from the bottle (OR=1.6, CI=1.2, 2.0), ethnicity other than Caucasian (OR=1.9, CI=1.4, 2.5), annual family income $20,000-$35,000 (OR = 1.7, CI=1.3, 2.3) and annual family income less than $20,000 (OR=2.1, CI=1.5, 2.8). Conclusion: A statistical model for early childhood caries in preschool children within the north Brisbane region has been constructed using selected social and behavioural determinants. Epidemiological data can be used for improved public oral health service planning and resource allocation within the region.

A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biological Conservation, 122 2005: 9-21.

Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

Multiquantum eigenstates of a linear chain of coupled qubits

We present a technique to identify exact analytic expressions for the multiquantum eigenstates of a linear chain of coupled qubits. A choice of Hilbert subspaces is described that allows an exact solution of the stationary Schrodinger equation without imposing periodic boundary conditions and without neglecting end effects, fully including the dipole-dipole nearest-neighbor interaction between the atoms. The treatment is valid for an arbitrary coherent excitation in the atomic system, any number of atoms, any size of the chain relative to the resonant wavelength and arbitrary initial conditions of the atomic system. The procedure we develop is general enough to be adopted for the study of excitation in an arbitrary array of atoms including spin chains and one-dimensional Bose-Einstein condensates.

Ultra-cold fermions in optical lattices

We summarize recent theoretical results for the signatures of strongly correlated ultra-cold fermions in optical lattices. In particular, we focus on collective mode calculations, where a sharp decrease in collective mode frequency is predicted at the onset of the Mott metal-insulator transition; and correlation functions at finite temperature, where we employ a new exact technique that applies the stochastic gauge technique with a Gaussian operator basis.

Detecting finite bandwidth periodic signals in stationary noise using the signal coherence spectrum

All signals that appear to be periodic have some sort of variability from period to period regardless of how stable they appear to be in a data plot. A true sinusoidal time series is a deterministic function of time that never changes and thus has zero bandwidth around the sinusoid's frequency. A zero bandwidth is impossible in nature since all signals have some intrinsic variability over time. Deterministic sinusoids are used to model cycles as a mathematical convenience. Hinich [IEEE J. Oceanic Eng. 25 (2) (2000) 256-261] introduced a parametric statistical model, called the randomly modulated periodicity (RMP) that allows one to capture the intrinsic variability of a cycle. As with a deterministic periodic signal the RMP can have a number of harmonics. The likelihood ratio test for this model when the amplitudes and phases are known is given in [M.J. Hinich, Signal Processing 83 (2003) 1349-13521. A method for detecting a RMP whose amplitudes and phases are unknown random process plus a stationary noise process is addressed in this paper. The only assumption on the additive noise is that it has finite dependence and finite moments. Using simulations based on a simple RMP model we show a case where the new method can detect the signal when the signal is not detectable in a standard waterfall spectrograrn display. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting functional capacity outcome 12 months after hospitalized injury

Background: There is a recognized need to move from mortality to morbidity outcome predictions following traumatic injury. However, there are few morbidity outcome prediction scoring methods and these fail to incorporate important comorbidities or cofactors. This study aims to develop and evaluate a method that includes such variables. Methods: This was a consecutive case series registered in the Queensland Trauma Registry that consented to a prospective 12-month telephone conducted follow-up study. A multivariable statistical model was developed relating Trauma Registry data to trichotomized 12-month post-injury outcome (categories: no limitations, minor limitations and major limitations). Cross-validation techniques using successive single hold-out samples were then conducted to evaluate the model's predictive capabilities. Results: In total, 619 participated, with 337 (54%) experiencing no limitations, 101 (16%) experiencing minor limitations and 181 (29%) experiencing major limitations 12 months after injury. The final parsimonious multivariable statistical model included whether the injury was in the lower extremity body region, injury severity, age, length of hospital stay, pulse at admission and whether the participant was admitted to an intensive care unit. This model explained 21% of the variability in post-injury outcome. Predictively, 64% of those with no limitations, 18% of those with minor limitations and 37% of those with major limitations were correctly identified. Conclusion: Although carefully developed, this statistical model lacks the predictive power necessary for its use as a basis of a useful prognostic tool. Further research is required to identify variables other than those routinely used in the Trauma Registry to develop a model with the necessary predictive utility.

Fringe spacing and phase of interfering matter waves

We experimentally investigate the outcoupling of atoms from Bose-Einstein condensates using two radio-frequency (rf) fields in the presence of gravity. We show that the fringe separation in the resulting interference pattern derives entirely from the energy difference between the two rf fields and not the gravitational potential difference between the two resonances. We subsequently demonstrate how the phase and polarization of the rf radiation directly control the phase of the matter wave interference and provide a semiclassical interpretation of the results.

First-principles quantum simulations of dissociation of molecular condensates: Atom correlations in momentum space

We investigate the quantum many-body dynamics of dissociation of a Bose-Einstein condensate of molecular dimers into pairs of constituent bosonic atoms and analyze the resulting atom-atom correlations. The quantum fields of both the molecules and atoms are simulated from first principles in three dimensions using the positive-P representation method. This allows us to provide an exact treatment of the molecular field depletion and s-wave scattering interactions between the particles, as well as to extend the analysis to nonuniform systems. In the simplest uniform case, we find that the major source of atom-atom decorrelation is atom-atom recombination which produces molecules outside the initially occupied condensate mode. The unwanted molecules are formed from dissociated atom pairs with nonopposite momenta. The net effect of this process-which becomes increasingly significant for dissociation durations corresponding to more than about 40% conversion-is to reduce the atom-atom correlations. In addition, for nonuniform systems we find that mode mixing due to inhomogeneity can result in further degradation of the correlation signal. We characterize the correlation strength via the degree of squeezing of particle number-difference fluctuations in a certain momentum-space volume and show that the correlation strength can be increased if the signals are binned into larger counting volumes.

Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Calculation of the microcanonical temperature for the classical Bose field

The ergodic hypothesis asserts that a classical mechanical system will in time visit every available configuration in phase space. Thus, for an ergodic system, an ensemble average of a thermodynamic quantity can equally well be calculated by a time average over a sufficiently long period of dynamical evolution. In this paper, we describe in detail how to calculate the temperature and chemical potential from the dynamics of a microcanonical classical field, using the particular example of the classical modes of a Bose-condensed gas. The accurate determination of these thermodynamics quantities is essential in measuring the shift of the critical temperature of a Bose gas due to nonperturbative many-body effects.