104 resultados para Bayes credible intervals
Resumo:
Dormancy release in seeds of Lolium rigidum Gaud. (annual ryegrass) was investigated in relation to temperature and seed water content. Freshly matured seeds were collected from cropping fields at Wongan Hills and Merredin, Western Australia. Seeds from Wongan Hills were equilibrated to water contents between 6 and 18% dry weight and after-ripened at constant temperatures between 9 and 50degreesC for up to 23 weeks. Wongan Hills and Merredin seeds at water contents between 7 and 17% were also after-ripened in full sun or shade conditions. Dormancy was tested at regular intervals during after-ripening by germinating seeds on agar at 12-h alternating 15degreesC (dark) and 25degreesC (light) periods. Rate of dormancy release for Wongan Hills seeds was a positive linear function of after-ripening temperature above a base temperature (T-b) of 5.4degreesC. A thermal after-ripening time model for dormancy loss accounting for seed moisture in the range 6-18% was developed using germination data for Wongan Hills seeds after-ripened at constant temperatures. The model accurately predicted dormancy release for Wongan Hills seeds after-ripened under naturally fluctuating temperatures. Seeds from Merredin responded similarly but had lower dormancy at collection and a faster rate of dormancy release in seeds below 9% water content.
Resumo:
Direct and simultaneous observation of root growth and plant water uptake is difficult because soils are opaque. X-ray imaging techniques such as projection radiography or Computer Tomography (CT) offer a partial alternative to such limitations. Nevertheless, there is a trade-off between resolution, large field-of-view and 3-dimensionality: With the current state of the technology, it is possible to have any two. In this study, we used X-ray transmission through thin-slab systems to monitor transient saturation fields that develop around roots as plants grow. Although restricted to 2-dimensions, this approach offers a large field-of-view together with high spatial and dynamic resolutions. To illustrate the potential of this technology, we grew peas in 1 cm thick containers filled with soil and imaged them at regular intervals. The dynamics of both the root growth and the water content field that developed around the roots could be conveniently monitored. Compared to other techniques such as X-ray CT, our system is relatively inexpensive and easy to implement. It can potentially be applied to study many agronomic problems, such as issues related to the impact of soil constraints (physical, chemical or biological) on root development.
Resumo:
Objective - To assess the relationship between infrarenal aortic diameter and subsequent all-cause mortality in men aged 65 years or older. Methods and Results - Aortic diameter was measured using ultrasound in 12 203 men aged 65 to 83 years as part of a trial of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms. A range of cardiovascular risk factors was also documented. Mortality over the next 3 to 7 years was assessed using record linkage. Initial aortic diameter was categorized into 10 intervals, and the relationship between increasing diameter and subsequent mortality was explored using Cox proportional hazard models. Median diameter increased from 21.4 mm in the youngest men to 22.1 mm in the oldest men. The cumulative all-cause mortality increased in a graded fashion with increasing aortic diameter. Using the diameter interval 19 to 22 mm as the reference, the adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality increased from 1.26 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.44; P = 0.001) for aortic diameters of 23 to 26 mm to 2.38 (95% CI: 1.22, 4.61; P = 0.011) for aortic diameters of 47 to 50 mm. Analysis of causes of death indicated that cardiovascular disease was an important contributor to this increase. Conclusion - Infrarenal aortic diameter is an independent marker of subsequent all-cause mortality.
Resumo:
Objective: To assess from a health sector perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness of interventions for generalized anxiety disorder (cognitive behavioural therapy [CBT] and serotonin and noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors [SNRIs]) and panic disorder (CBT, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors [SSRIs] and tricyclic antidepressants [TCAs]). Method: The health benefit is measured as a reduction in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), based on effect size calculations from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. An assessment on second stage filters ('equity', 'strength of evidence', 'feasibility' and 'acceptability to stakeholders') is also undertaken to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. Costs and benefits are calculated for a period of one year for the eligible population (prevalent cases of generalized anxiety disorder/panic disorder identified in the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing, extrapolated to the Australian population in the year 2000 for those aged 18 years and older). Simulation modelling techniques are used to present 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) around the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results: Compared to current practice, CBT by a psychologist on a public salary is the most cost-effective intervention for both generalized anxiety disorder (A$6900/DALY saved; 95% UI A$4000 to A$12 000) and panic disorder (A$6800/DALY saved; 95% UI A$2900 to A$15 000). Cognitive behavioural therapy results in a greater total health benefit than the drug interventions for both anxiety disorders, although equity and feasibility concerns for CBT interventions are also greater. Conclusions: Cognitive behavioural therapy is the most effective and cost-effective intervention for generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder. However, its implementation would require policy change to enable more widespread access to a sufficient number of trained therapists for the treatment of anxiety disorders.
Resumo:
Background-C- reactive protein (CRP) levels have been shown to predict a number of cardiovascular outcomes. CRP levels have also been found to be elevated in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs). The aim of this study was to assess the relation between CRP levels and rates of expansion of small AAAs. Methods and Results-A cohort of men with small aneurysms was identified in a trial of screening with ultrasound scanning. After initial screening, men were rescanned at 6- to 12-month intervals. CRP levels were measured at the first follow-up visit. Rates of expansion and risk factors for expansion were assessed with the use of data from 545 men who attended for at least 1 scan after CRP levels were measured. These men were followed for a median of 48 (range, 5 to 69) months. The mean annual rate of expansion was 1.6 mm. The median CRP level was 2.6 mg/L in men with the smaller AAAs (30 to 39 mm, n=433) compared with 3.5 mg/L in men with larger AAAs (40 to 54 mm, n=112) (P=0.007). The multivariate age-adjusted logistic model confirmed initial aortic diameter to be the only factor associated with rapid expansion with an odds ratio of 7.2 (95% CI, 4.3,12.2) for an initial diameter of 40 to 54 mm relative to one of 30 to 39 mm. Conclusions-Most small aneurysms expand slowly. CRP levels are elevated in larger aneurysms but do not appear to be associated with rapid expansion. The most useful predictor of aneurysmal expansion in men is aortic diameter.
Resumo:
The present study (N532) investigated attentional modulation of the startle blink reflex at long lead intervals under conditions of differing emotional valence. Participants performed a visual discrimination and counting task while coloured lights indicated whether it was possible for the participant to receive an electrotactile shock (threat of shock) or if no shock would be presented (safe). Latency and magnitude of startle responses to probes during inter-stimulus intervals were facilitated during threat periods relative to safe periods. Startle latency and magnitude modulation were enhanced during attended discrimination and counting task stimuli relative to startle during ignored stimuli. This attention effect did not vary under threat or safe conditions, suggesting that attentional startle modulation is not affected by the emotional valence of the context.
Resumo:
Inorganic nutrients play a critical role in determining benthic community structure in tropical seas. This study examined the impact of adding inorganic nutrients (ammonium and phosphate) on the isotopic composition of 2 reef-building corals, Pocillopora damicornis and Heliofungia actiniformis, on the southern Great Barrier Reef. The addition of elevated nutrients to patch reefs that pond at low tide did not perturb the C:N ratio of either species or their symbiotic dinoflagellates. The C:N ratios were significantly higher in material extracted from the skeleton (14.8 +/- 1.50 and 10.8 +/- 1.42) than either host (7.6 +/- 0.87 and 6.0 +/- 0.71) or symbiotic dinoflagellates (5.7 +/- 0.48 and 6.9 +/- 0.66) (P. damicornis and H. actiniformis respectively; 95 confidence intervals). The ratio of acquired N to background N suggests that the added dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) accounted for 50 to 100% of total nitrogen within the tissues of P. damicornis and H. actiniformis at the end of the experiment. The addition of the isotopically depleted nutrients (delta(15) N = 0parts per thousand) to patch reefs significantly decreased delta(15)N from control values of between 3 and 4 to values to below 1 in the case of all compartments, while delta(13)C values were relatively unresponsive to nutrient treatments. These findings suggest that coral delta(15)N has the potential to provide a historical record of the delta(15)N of dissolved nitrogen surrounding reef-building corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellates.
Resumo:
Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.
Resumo:
Dynamic foam films have been investigated using an improved experimental set-up with a CCD high-speed linescan camera in conjunction with the Scheludko micro-interferometric cell for studying the drainage and rupture of liquid foam films. The improved experimental set-up increased the sensibility of detection of the local thickness heterogeneities and domains during the film evolution. The evolution of the foam films up to the formation of black spots was recorded in the time intervals of 50ms. The wavelengths of the propagating surface waves and their frequencies were determined experimentally. The experimental results show that the current quasi-static hydrodynamic theory does not properly describe the wave dynamics with inter-domain channels. However, the thermodynamic condition for formation of black spots in the foam films was met by the experimental results. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
This study uses a molecular-dating approach to test hypotheses about the biogeography of Nothofagus. The molecular modelling suggests that the present-day subgenera and species date from a radiation that most likely commenced between 55 and 40 Myr ago. This rules out the possibility of a reconciled all-vicariance hypothesis for the biogeography of extant Nothofagus. However, the molecular dates for divergences between Australasian and South American taxa are consistent with the rifting of Australia and South America from Antarctica. The molecular dates further suggest a dispersal of subgenera Lophozonia and Fuscospora between Australia and New Zealand after the onset of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and west wind drift. It appears likely that the New Caledonian lineage of subgenus Brassospora diverged from the New Guinean lineage elsewhere, prior to colonizing New Caledonia. The molecular approach strongly supports fossil-based estimates that Nothofagus diverged from the rest of Fagales more than 84 Myr ago. However, the mid-Cenozoic estimate for the diversification of the four extant subgenera conflicts with the palynological interpretation because pollen fossils, attributed to all four extant subgenera, were widespread across the Weddellian province of Gondwana about 71 Myr ago. The discrepancy between the pollen and molecular dates exists even when confidence intervals from several sources of error are taken into account. In contrast, the molecular age estimates are consistent with macrofossil dates. The incongruence between pollen fossils and molecular dates could be resolved if the early pollen types represent extinct lineages, with similar types later evolving independently in the extant lineages.
Resumo:
The effect of sheep digestion and mastication on Malva parviflora L. seed transmission, viability and germination was investigated. Mature M. parviflora seeds were subjected to 2 seed treatments: 'scarified', where the hard seed coat was manually cut to allow inhibition, and 'unscarified', where the hard seed coat was not cut. Seeds were placed directly into the rumen of fistulated sheep and removed at 0, 12, 24, 36 and 48 h of rumen digestion. After 12 h of in sacco exposure to digestion in the rumen, the germination of seeds that were initially scarified dropped from 99.2 to 1.4% and longer exposure periods produced no germinable seeds. In contrast, seeds that were unscarified when placed in the rumen produced over 92% germination regardless of in sacco digestion time, although manual scarification after retrieval was essential to elicit germination. In a second experiment, unscarified seeds (29000) were fed in a single meal to fistulated sheep and feces were collected at regular intervals between 6 and 120 h after feeding. Fecal subsamples were taken to determine number of seeds excreted, seed germination on agar and seed germination from feces. Major seed excretion in the feces commenced after 12 h and continued until 144 h, with peaks between 36 and 72 h after consumption. Although mastication and gut passage killed the majority of unscarified seeds, about 20% were recovered intact and over 90% of these recovered seeds were viable and could, thus, potentially form an extensive seed bank. A few excreted seeds (1%) were able to germinate directly from feces, which increased to a maximum of 10% after subsequent dry summer storage (3 months). Through information gained in this study, there is a potential to utilise livestock in an integrated weed management program for the control of M. parviflora, provided additional measures of weed control are in place such as holding periods (> 7 days) for movement of livestock from weed infested areas.
Resumo:
Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.
Resumo:
Previous work examining context effects in children has been limited to semantic context. The current research examined the effects of grammatical priming of word-naming in fourth-grade children. In Experiment 1, children named both inflected and uninflected noun and verb target words faster when they were preceded by grammatically constraining primes than when they were preceded by neutral primes. Experiment 1 used a long stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA) interval of 750 msec. Experiment 2 replicated the grammatical priming effect at two SOA intervals (400 msec and 700 msec), suggesting that the grammatical priming effect does not reflect the operation of any gross strategic effects directly attributable to the long SOA interval employed in Experiment 1. Grammatical context appears to facilitate target word naming by constraining target word class. Further work is required to elucidate the loci of this effect.
Resumo:
In this paper use consider the problem of providing standard errors of the component means in normal mixture models fitted to univariate or multivariate data by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm. Two methods of estimation of the standard errors are considered: the standard information-based method and the computationally-intensive bootstrap method. They are compared empirically by their application to three real data sets and by a small-scale Monte Carlo experiment.
Resumo:
The effects of 4 estrus synchronization treatments on intervals to and synchrony of estrus and ovulation, on timing of the preovulatory LH surge and associated changes in plasma progesterone, LH, FSH, and 17 beta-estradiol (E(2)) were investigated in 48 Bos indicus cows. Treatment 1 consisted of 2 injections of PGF(2 alpha) 14 d apart (n = 12); Treatment 2 of a subcutaneous 3-mg norgestomet implant and an intramuscular injection of 3 mg of norgestomet and 5 mg estradiol valerate, with the implant removed 10 d later (n = 12; norgestomet-estradiol); Treatment 3 of norgestomet-estradiol, with a subcutaneous injection of PMSG given at time of implant removal (Day 10; n = 12); and Treatment 4 of norgestomet implant (as for Treatments 2 and 3) inserted for 10 d, with an intramuscular injection of PGF(2 alpha) given at the time of implant removal (n = 12). The experiment was conducted in 2 replicates (24 cows/replicate, 6 cows/group). Estrus, ovulation and timing of the preovulatory surge of LH varied less in cows treated with norgestomet-estradiol and PMSG than in cows in Treatments 1 and 4 (P < 0.008). Treatment with PMSG;educed variation in ovulation times and timing of the LH surge in cows treated with norgestomet-estradiol (P < 0.02). Concentrations of E(2) were higher in cows in Treatments 2 and 3 on the final day of treatment and at about 6 h post ovulation compared with cows in Treatments 1 and 4 (P < 0.05). Different methods for synchronizing estrus did not alter sequential endocrine and behavioral changes in relation to the timing of the LH peak, and the results were consistent with current recommendations for insemination times in Bos taurus cattle. (C) 1997 by Elsevier Science Inc.