Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Modelling context information with ORM

Context-aware applications rely on implicit forms of input, such as sensor-derived data, in order to reduce the need for explicit input from users. They are especially relevant for mobile and pervasive computing environments, in which user attention is at a premium. To support the development of context-aware applications, techniques for modelling context information are required. These must address a unique combination of requirements, including the ability to model information supplied by both sensors and people, to represent imperfect information, and to capture context histories. As the field of context-aware computing is relatively new, mature solutions for context modelling do not exist, and researchers rely on information modelling solutions developed for other purposes. In our research, we have been using a variant of Object-Role Modeling (ORM) to model context. In this paper, we reflect on our experiences and outline some research challenges in this area.