64 resultados para Age-dependent Branching Processes with Immigration at Zero State


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The incidence of surgically confirmed cystic echinococcosis in eastern Libya was estimated to be at least 4.2 cases/100,000, with significantly more female cases than male. The prevalences of infection with Echinococcus granulosus among 1087 sheep, 881 goats, 428 camels and 614 cattle from the same region, determined postmortem in abattoirs, were 20%, 3.4%, 13.6% and 11%, respectively. Infection in the livestock was age-dependent and, generally, the female animals were more often infected than the male. The measurements of rostellar hooks on protoscoleces collected from sheep and cattle were similar but significantly different from the corresponding measurements of parasites of human or camel origin. However, when a portion of the cytochrome c-oxidase subunit I (coxl) gene from each of 30 protoscolex samples from Libya (12 from cattle, three from humans, five from camels and 10 from sheep) was sequenced, the sequences were all found to be identical to that published for the common sheep strain of E. granulosus.

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Diabetes mellitus has reached epidemic proportions in many countries and is the most common cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD). The angiotensin II receptor-1 (AT1) antagonists losartan and irbesartan have recently been evaluated as renoprotective agents in large clinical trials of patients with Type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. In the Reduction of End points in Non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus with the Angiotensin II Antagonist (RENAAL) study, losartan decreased the number of patients reaching the primary end point of a composite of measures of neuropathy. The relative risk reduction was ~ 15% with losartan and this was due to a reduction in both the doubling of creatinine concentration (25%) and of ESRD (28%) but not in death. In the Irbesartan Diabetic Nephropathy Trial (IDNT), the beneficial effect of irbesartan was mainly against the doubling of the baseline creatinine concentration (37% risk reduction) but there was also a 20% reduction in the onset of ESRD. Irbesartan had no effect on mortality. Beneficial effects occurred in addition to blood pressure being controlled by agents other than the AT1 antagonists. These clinical trials suggest that there may be a class renoprotective action with AT1 antagonists, although the mechanism is not clear. Patients with Type 2 diabetes and nephropathy should receive either an AT1 antagonist or the angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor ramipril to ensure renoprotection.

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Objective: To explore relationships between physical activity and mental health cross-sectionally and longitudinally in a large cohort of older Australian women. Method: Women in their 70s participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health responded in 1996 (aged 70-75) and in 1999 (aged 73-78). Cross-sectional data were analyzed for 10,063 women and longitudinal data for 6472. Self-reports were used to categorize women into four categories of physical activity at each time point as well as to define four physical activity transition categories across the 3-year period. Outcome variables for the cross-sectional analyses were the mental health component score (MCS) and mental health subscales of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form (SF-36). The longitudinal analyses focused on changes in these variables. Confounders included the physical health component scale (PCS) of the SF-36, marital status, body mass index (BMI) and life events. Adjustment for baseline scores was included for the longitudinal analyses. Results: Cross-sectionally, higher levels of physical activity were associated with higher scores on all dependent variables, both with and without adjustment for confounders. Longitudinally, the effects were weaker, but women who had made a transition from some physical activity to none generally showed more negative changes in emotional well-being than those who had always been sedentary, while those who maintained or adopted physical activity had better outcomes. Conclusion: Physical activity is associated with emotional well-being among a population cohort of older women both cross-sectionally and longitudinally, supporting the need for the promotion of appropriate physical activity in this age group. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

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B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) levels increase in systolic heart failure (HF). However, the value of BNP in hypertensive patients with suspected diastolic HF (symptoms suggestive of HF but normal ejection fraction) and its relation to myocardial function in these patients is unclear. We prospectively studied 72 ambulatory hypertensive subjects (40 women, mean age 58 +/- 8 years) with exertional dyspnea and ejection fraction greater than or equal to50%. Diastolic function was evaluated with transmitral and pulmonary venous Doppler, mitral annular velocities (pulsed-wave tissue Doppler), and flow propagation velocity (color M-mode). Systolic function was assessed with strain and strain rate derived from color tissue Doppler imaging. BNP was related to myocardial function and the presence or absence of global diastolic dysfunction. By conventional Doppler criteria, 34 patients had normal left ventricular diastolic function and 38 had isolated diastolic dysfunction. BNP values were higher in patients with diastolic dysfunction (46 +/- 48 vs 20 +/- 20 pg/ml, p = 0.004) and were related independently to blood pressure, systolic strain rate, left atrial function (p < 0.01 for all), and age (p = 0.015). Patients with diastolic dysfunction and pseudonormal filling had higher BNP levels compared with impaired relaxation (89 +/- 47 vs 35 +/- 42 pg/ml, p = 0.001). However, 79% of patients with diastolic dysfunction had BNP levels within the normal range. We conclude that in ambulatory hypertensive patients with symptoms suggestive of mild HF and normal ejection fraction, BNP is related to atrial and ventricular systolic parameters, blood pressure, and age. Although elevated in the presence of diastolic dysfunction, the BNP level mostly is in the normal range and, therefore, has limited diagnostic value in stable patients with suspected diastolic HF. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

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Aim To develop a population pharmacokinetic model for mycophenolic acid in adult kidney transplant recipients, quantifying average population pharmacokinetic parameter values, and between- and within-subject variability and to evaluate the influence of covariates on the pharmacokinetic variability. Methods Pharmacokinetic data for mycophenolic acid and covariate information were previously available from 22 patients who underwent kidney transplantation at the Princess Alexandra Hospital. All patients received mycophenolate mofetil 1 g orally twice daily. A total of 557 concentration-time points were available. Data were analysed using the first-order method in NONMEM (version 5 level 1.1) using the G77 FORTRAN compiler. Results The best base model was a two-compartment model with a lag time (apparent oral clearance was 271 h(-1), and apparent volume of the central compartment 981). There was visual evidence of complex absorption and time-dependent clearance processes, but they could not be successfully modelled in this study. Weight was investigated as a covariate, but no significant relationship was determined. Conclusions The complexity in determining the pharmacokinetics of mycophenolic acid is currently underestimated. More complex pharmacokinetic models, though not supported by the limited data collected for this study, may prove useful in the future. The large between-subject and between-occasion variability and the possibility of nonlinear processes associated with the pharmacokinetics of mycophenolic acid raise questions about the value of the use of therapeutic monitoring and limited sampling strategies.

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Background - Specific treatments targeting the pathophysiology of hypertensive heart disease are lacking. As aldosterone has been implicated in the genesis of myocardial fibrosis, hypertrophy, and dysfunction, we sought to determine the effects of aldosterone antagonism on myocardial function in hypertensive patients with suspected diastolic heart failure by using sensitive quantitative echocardiographic techniques in a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled study. Methods and Results - Thirty medically treated ambulatory hypertensive patients (19 women, age 62 +/- 6 years) with exertional dyspnea, ejection fraction >50%, and diastolic dysfunction (E/A 250m/sec) and without ischemia were randomized to spironolactone 25 mg/d or placebo for 6 months. Patients were overweight (31 +/- 5 kg/m(2)) with reduced treadmill exercise capacity (6.7 +/- 2.1 METS). Long-axis strain rate (SR), peak systolic strain, and cyclic variation of integrated backscatter (CVIB) were averaged from 6 walls in 3 standard apical views. Mean 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure at baseline (133 +/- 17/80 +/- 7mm Hg) did not change in either group. Values for SR, peak systolic strain, and CVIB were similar between groups at baseline and remained unchanged with placebo. Spironolactone therapy was associated with increases in SR (baseline: -1.57 +/- 0.46 s(-1) versus 6-months: -1.91 +/- 0.36 s(-1), P < 0.01), peak systolic strain (-20.3 &PLUSMN; 5.0% versus -26.9 &PLUSMN; 4.3%, P < 0.001), and CVIB (7.4 +/- 1.7dB versus 8.6 +/- 1.7 dB, P = 0.08). Each parameter was significantly greater in the spironolactone group compared with placebo at 6 months (P = 0.05, P = 0.02, and P = 0.02, respectively), and the increases remained significant after adjusting for baseline differences. The increase in strain was independent of changes in blood pressure with intervention. The spironolactone group also exhibited reduction in posterior wall thickness (P = 0.04) and a trend to reduced left atrial area (P = 0.09). Conclusions - Aldosterone antagonism improves myocardial function in hypertensive heart disease.

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OBJECTIVES We sought to determine if a hypertensive response to exercise (HRE) is associated with myocardial changes consistent with early hypertensive heart disease. BACKGROUND An HRE predicts the development of chronic hypertension (HT) and may reflect a preclinical stage of HT. METHODS Patients with a normal left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction and a negative stress test were recruited into three matched groups: 41 patients (age 56 +/- 10 years) with HRE (210/105 mm Hg in men; > 190/105 in women), comprising 22 patients with (HT+) and 19 without resting hypertension (HT-); and 17 matched control subjects without HRE. Long-axis function was determined by measurement of the strain rate (SR), peak systolic strain, and cyclic variation (CV) of integrated backscatter in three apical views. RESULTS An HRE was not associated with significant differences in LV mass index. Exercise performance and diastolic function were reduced in HRE(HT+) patients, but similar in HRE(HT-) patients and controls. Systolic dysfunction (peak systolic strain, SR, and CV) was significantly reduced in HRE patients (p < 0.001 for all). These reductions were equally apparent in patients with and without a history of resting HT (p = NS) and were independent of LV mass index and blood pressure (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS An HRE is associated with subtle systolic dysfunction, even in the absence of resting HT. These changes occur before the development of LV hypertrophy or detectable diastolic dysfunction and likely represent early hypertensive heart disease. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

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In the United States and several other countries., the development of population viability analyses (PVA) is a legal requirement of any species survival plan developed for threatened and endangered species. Despite the importance of pathogens in natural populations, little attention has been given to host-pathogen dynamics in PVA. To study the effect of infectious pathogens on extinction risk estimates generated from PVA, we review and synthesize the relevance of host-pathogen dynamics in analyses of extinction risk. We then develop a stochastic, density-dependent host-parasite model to investigate the effects of disease on the persistence of endangered populations. We show that this model converges on a Ricker model of density dependence under a suite of limiting assumptions, including. a high probability that epidemics will arrive and occur. Using this modeling framework, we then quantify: (1) dynamic differences between time series generated by disease and Ricker processes with the same parameters; (2) observed probabilities of quasi-extinction for populations exposed to disease or self-limitation; and (3) bias in probabilities of quasi-extinction estimated by density-independent PVAs when populations experience either form of density dependence. Our results suggest two generalities about the relationships among disease, PVA, and the management of endangered species. First, disease more strongly increases variability in host abundance and, thus, the probability of quasi-extinction, than does self-limitation. This result stems from the fact that the effects and the probability of occurrence of disease are both density dependent. Second, estimates of quasi-extinction are more often overly optimistic for populations experiencing disease than for those subject to self-limitation. Thus, although the results of density-independent PVAs may be relatively robust to some particular assumptions about density dependence, they are less robust when endangered populations are known to be susceptible to disease. If potential management actions involve manipulating pathogens, then it may be useful to. model disease explicitly.

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Previously it has been shown that the branching pattern of pyramidal cells varies markedly between different cortical areas in simian primates. These differences are thought to influence the functional complexity of the cells. In particular, there is a progressive increase in the fractal dimension of pyramidal cells with anterior progression through cortical areas in the occipitotemporal (OT) visual stream, including the primary visual area (V1), the second visual area (V2), the dorsolateral area (DL, corresponding to the fourth visual area) and inferotemporal cortex (IT). However, there are as yet no data on the fractal dimension of these neurons in prosimian primates. Here we focused on the nocturnal prosimian galago (Otolemur garnetti). The fractal dimension (D), and aspect ratio (a measure of branching symmetry), was determined for I I I layer III pyramidal cells in V1, V2, DL and IT. We found, as in simian primates, that the fractal dimension of neurons increased with anterior progression from V1 through V2, DL, and IT. Two important conclusions can be drawn from these results: (1) the trend for increasing branching complexity with anterior progression through OT areas was likely to be present in a common primate ancestor, and (2) specialization in neuron structure more likely facilitates object recognition than spectral processing.

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The effects of gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) on the electrophysiological properties of intracardiac neurones were investigated in the intracardiac ganglion plexus in situ and in dissociated neurones from neonatal, juvenile and adult rat hearts. Focal application of GABA evoked a depolarizing, excitatory response in both intact and dissociated intracardiac ganglion neurones. Under voltage clamp, both GABA and muscimol elicited inward currents at -60 mV in a concentration-dependent manner. The fast, desensitizing currents were mimicked by the GABA(A) receptor agonists muscimol and taurine, and inhibited by the GABA(A) receptor antagonists, bicuculline and picrotoxin. The GABA(A0) antagonist (1,2,5,6-tetrahydropyridin-4-yl)methyl phosphonic acid (TPMPA), had no effect on GABA-induced currents, suggesting that GABA(A) receptor-channels mediate the response. The GABA-evoked current amplitude recorded from dissociated neurones was age dependent whereby the peak current density measured at -100 mV was similar to 20 times higher for intracardiac neurones obtained from neonatal rats (P2-5) compared with adult rats (P45-49). The decrease in GABA sensitivity occurred during the first two postnatal weeks and coincides with maturation of the sympathetic innervation of the rat heart. Immunohistochemical staining using antibodies against GABA demonstrate the presence of GABA in the intracardiac ganglion plexus of the neonatal rat heart. Taken together, these results suggest that GABA and taurine may act as modulators of neurotransmission and cardiac function in the developing mammalian intrinsic cardiac nervous system.

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Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Enlarged glomerular size is a feature of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, obesity-related glomerulopathy, diabetic nephropathy, and hypertension. The distribution of glomerular volumes within different cortical zones and glomerular volume alterations with age and obesity may contribute to understanding the evolution of these diseases. We analyzed the distributions of volumes of individual glomeruli in the superficial, middle, and juxtamedullary cortex of normal human kidneys using the disector/Cavalieri method. Volumes (V-glom) of 720 nonsclerotic glomeruli (30 per kidney, 10 per zone) were estimated in autopsy kidneys of 24 American men, 12 aged 20 to 30 yr and 12 aged 51 to 69 yr. Black and white individuals were represented equally. The range of individual V-glom within subjects varied from two- to eight-fold. There were no significant zonal differences in V-glom in the young or those with body surface area (BSA) <= 2.11 m(2). In contrast, superficial glomeruli in the older age group, in those with BSA > 2.11 m(2), and in white subjects were significantly larger than juxtamedullary glomeruli. Black subjects tended toward larger V-glom than white subjects, and this difference was significant and most marked in the juxtamedullary zone and independent of age, BSA, and glomerular number. There is a wide range in individual V-glom in adults. BSA, race, and age independently influence V-glom different zones of the renal cortex. These findings might reflect processes of aging and susceptibility factors to renal disease.

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Process optimisation and optimal control of batch and continuous drum granulation processes are studied in this paper. The main focus of the current research has been: (i) construction of optimisation and control relevant, population balance models through the incorporation of moisture content, drum rotation rate and bed depth into the coalescence kernels; (ii) investigation of optimal operational conditions using constrained optimisation techniques; (iii) development of optimal control algorithms based on discretized population balance equations; and (iv) comprehensive simulation studies on optimal control of both batch and continuous granulation processes. The objective of steady state optimisation is to minimise the recycle rate with minimum cost for continuous processes. It has been identified that the drum rotation-rate, bed depth (material charge), and moisture content of solids are practical decision (design) parameters for system optimisation. The objective for the optimal control of batch granulation processes is to maximize the mass of product-sized particles with minimum time and binder consumption. The objective for the optimal control of the continuous process is to drive the process from one steady state to another in a minimum time with minimum binder consumption, which is also known as the state-driving problem. It has been known for some time that the binder spray-rate is the most effective control (manipulative) variable. Although other possible manipulative variables, such as feed flow-rate and additional powder flow-rate have been investigated in the complete research project, only the single input problem with the binder spray rate as the manipulative variable is addressed in the paper to demonstrate the methodology. It can be shown from simulation results that the proposed models are suitable for control and optimisation studies, and the optimisation algorithms connected with either steady state or dynamic models are successful for the determination of optimal operational conditions and dynamic trajectories with good convergence properties. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Fluorescence spectrophotometry can reliably detect levels of the pteridine 6-biopterin in the heads of individual Drosophila serrata Malloch 1927. Pteridine content in both laboratory and field captured flies is typically a level of magnitude higher than the minimally detectable level (mean(lab)=0.54 units, mean(field)=0.44 units, minimum detectable level=0.01 units) and can be used to predict individual age in laboratory populations with high certainty (r(2)=57%). Laboratory studies of individuals of known age ( from 1 to 48 days old) indicate that while pteridine level increases linearly with age, they also increase in a linear manner with rearing temperature and ambient light levels, but are independent of sex. As expected, the longevity of laboratory-reared males ( at least 48 days) is higher than the range of predicted ages of wild-caught males based on individual pteridine levels (40 days). However, the predictive equation based on pteridine level alone suggested that a number of wild-caught males were less than 0 days old, and the 95% confidence for these predictions based on the inverse regression broad. The age of the oldest wild-caught male is to fall within the range of 2 to 50 days. The effects of temperature and light intensity determined in laboratory study (effect sizes omega(2)=14.3 and respectively) suggests that the calibration of the prediction equation for field populations would significantly improved when combined with fine scaled studies of habitat temperature and light conditions. ability to determine relative age in individual wild-caught D. serrata presents great opportunities for a variety evolutionary studies on the dynamics of populations.

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Two-dimensional (2-D) strain (epsilon(2-D)) on the basis of speckle tracking is a new technique for strain measurement. This study sought to validate epsilon(2-D) and tissue velocity imaging (TVI)based strain (epsilon(TVI)) with tagged harmonic-phase (HARP) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Thirty patients (mean age. 62 +/- 11 years) with known or suspected ischemic heart disease were evaluated. Wall motion (wall motion score index 1.55 +/- 0.46) was assessed by an expert observer. Three apical images were obtained for longitudinal strain (16 segments) and 3 short-axis images for radial and circumferential strain (18 segments). Radial epsilon(TVI) was obtained in the posterior wall. HARP MRI was used to measure principal strain, expressed as maximal length change in each direction. Values for epsilon(2-D), epsilon(TVI), and HARP MRI were comparable for all 3 strain directions and were reduced in dysfunctional segments. The mean difference and correlation between longitudinal epsilon(2-D) and HARP MRI (2.1 +/- 5.5%, r = 0.51, p < 0.001) were similar to those between longitudinal epsilon(TVI), and HARP MRI (1.1 +/- 6.7%, r = 0.40, p < 0.001). The mean difference and correlation were more favorable between radial epsilon(2-D) and HARP MRI (0.4 +/- 10.2%, r = 0.60, p < 0.001) than between radial epsilon(TVI), and HARP MRI (3.4 +/- 10.5%, r = 0.47, p < 0.001). For circumferential strain, the mean difference and correlation between epsilon(2-D) and HARP MRI were 0.7 +/- 5.4% and r = 0.51 (p < 0.001), respectively. In conclusion, the modest correlations of echocardiographic and HARP MRI strain reflect the technical challenges of the 2 techniques. Nonetheless, epsilon(2-D) provides a reliable tool to quantify regional function, with radial measurements being more accurate and feasible than with TVI. Unlike epsilon(TVI), epsilon(2-D) provides circumferential measurements. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.